Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Jana Partners on Agrium, Inc. (and why it might pay to listen up) AGU

The stock is down 1.77% at $103.50
There is so much gas coming out of the Bakken that they have been flaring it off, wasteful and stupid.
FERC just yesterday gave what appeared to be accelerated approval to Alliance Pipeline's 80-mile lateral  between the gathering point and the mainline to Chicago.
From TheStreet:
Jana Partners: Agrium Breakup Is Shale Boom Bet
Jana Partners, a hedge fund with an activist investing bent, is adding to its bet on a shale drilling boom and its case for a breakup of fertilizer giant Agrium (AGU) in the same breath.
Jana disclosed a $500 million-plus investment in Agrium in mid-August and said in a letter to the Calgary-based company's board that it should consider splitting its retail business from a much larger wholesale business, unlocking hidden value in the conglomerate.

Doubling down on the investment thesis, Jana chief executive Barry Rosenstein said at the Value Investing Congress on Monday that he will continue to push for a wholesale and retail unit split, noting that a shale drilling boom has significantly lowered the input costs for Agrium's nitrogen and fertilizer businesses on the wholesale side of the operations.

The hedge fund investor said Agrium's retail business could be worth $15 to $20 a share independently and that, in total, Agrium may be undervalued by $50 a share as a result of its conglomerate structure.
Agrium shares rose between 2% and 3% in late afternoon trading on Monday, adding to year-to-date gains nearing 60%. The company's shares hit a 52-week high in the early afternoon as the Jana Partners CEO was speaking at the conference, at above $107....MORE
...Nevertheless, Jana's investment thesis on Agrium is notable both for the fund's recent success in tapping a shale gas drilling boom, and in its success in advocating for the breakup of conglomerates like McGraw-Hill (MHP).

 In late March, the fund reported it had sold off a successful investment in refiner Marathon Petroleum (MPC) after the company's stock gained significantly on a refining sector rally and its decision to IPO a pipeline unit that Jana said could achieve a higher value independently.

Jana was also one of the largest investors in pipeline and shale oil drilling giant El Paso, which was bought by Kinder Morgan (KMI) in the largest acquisition of 2011. Both investments underscore the fund's familiarity with energy investments and corporate actions as it now tries to profit from second-order benefits from the shale drilling boom....