Friday, July 6, 2012

The Risk in Risk Assets: The Dollar Could Crush Commodities

The Euro hit a two year low today, dropping below $1.2288, it's currently down 1 cent at $1.2290.
As we've said, we expect the two currencies to trade pari passu within two years eighteen months.
From Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives:
Dollar Breakout and Commodity/Risk Assets
The U.S. Dollar continues to battle with a cluster of resistance at (1) in the left chart below. A breakout above these lines could bring in enough buyers to push the Dollar up to the 90 level in quick order.
The CRB index remains inside of its falling channel and looks to have had a counter-trend rally up to its 23% Fibonacci resistance level. The Power of the Pattern has been calling for Commodity weakness since last November (see post here).

Click to View(click chart for the full horror)