Monday, July 2, 2012

Oxford Analytica: Top 10 Geopolitical Risks

From Econ Matters:
Top 10 Warning Signs of a Global End Game 
What a difference a year has made!  About this time last year, the dollar seemed on the brink of disaster amid the debt ceiling debate at U.S. Congress.  U.S. CDS spiked 430% in three months, and S&P downgraded the U.S. sovereign debt credit rating for the first time in history.  At the time, Euro crisis looked could be contained, and China's growth story was largely intact to still fuel the world GDP.  So it was of little surprise that the dollar collapse was ranked as the top global risk last year (See Table Below) by consultancy Oxford Analytica that could put the world into a tailspin. 

Now, one year later, while conflicts within and with the Middle East region are still among the top global risks, the paradigm has definitively shifted to China and Europe (See Table and Chart Below). Among the top 10 global risks this year, we see 'Sharp Slowdown in China' as the most clear and present danger to the world.      
Further Reading - 20 Warnings Signs of a Global Doomsday (2011)

Data Source: Oxford Analytica, July 1, 2012

Graphic Source: Oxford Analytica, July 1, 2012
With the simultaneous slowdown in U.S. and Europe, China has become a major market for business and corporations to rely on for revenue and growth.  However, economic data coming out of China has gone from bad to worse as Europe's crisis seriously hurt China's heavy export-reliant economy....MORE