I'm getting a "Wilderness of mirrors" feeling about the market.
Did private non farm employment grow in March by only 121K (per the establishment survey), or by a very impressive 318K (per the household survey)? Take your pick: no one really knows which one is right, even though they paint dramatically different pictures of how strong the economy currently is.
In the 30+ years during which I have been following these two monthly surveys, there have been many times when they have diverged. Over time they tell the same story, but over shorter periods of a few months or even a few years, they can tell different stories. One shorthand way of resolving the problem of a divergence is to simply split the difference, since the truth is likely to be somewhere in the middle. Doing that for March gives you a private sector payroll gain of 225K, which is right around where expectations were, and which is also consistent with what we've seen in the past few months. I don't see any reason to think that the unexpected slowdown in jobs growth that surfaced in the establishment number reflects any actual slowdown in the economy; the economy never turns on a dime without there being a number of indicators suggesting that something big is going on....MORE
The term was developed into a theory by the CIA's James Jesus Angleton to describe a situation where nothing is as it seems. He lifted it from T.S. Elliot's 1920 poem Gerontion:
...These with a thousand small deliberations | |
Protract the profit of their chilled delirium, | |
Excite the membrane, when the sense has cooled, | |
With pungent sauces, multiply variety | |
In a wilderness of mirrors. What will the spider do, | 65 |
Suspend its operations, will the weevil | |
Delay? De Bailhache, Fresca, Mrs. Cammel, whirled | |
Beyond the circuit of the shuddering Bear | |
In fractured atoms. Gull against the wind, in the windy straits | |
Of Belle Isle, or running on the Horn, | 70 |
White feathers in the snow, the Gulf claims, | |
And an old man driven by the Trades | |
To a a sleepy corner. | |
Tenants of the house, | |
Thoughts of a dry brain in a dry season. | 75 |