Tuesday, April 24, 2012

"Your Wealth & the French Election Results" (FXE; UUP; TLT; USO)

From Mad Hedge Fund Trader via Resource Investor:
...The socialist economic policies will require an increase in government spending, growing budget deficits, an extended retirement age, and a far heavier reliance on sovereign borrowing by France. It makes a complete hash of the careful progress made by German chancellor, Angela Merkel, towards steering Europe to live within its means. More debt issuance means higher interest rates, falling stock markets, and a continuation of the European crisis. Message: bombs away for risk assets.

The only way that Sarkozy could keep his job is to do some sort of a deal with the right wing National Front to create a coalition government. And what would be their price for such an arrangement? The immediate withdrawal of France from the euro to recover national pride and sovereignty. Message: more bombs away for risk assets.

Needless to say, this is all hugely positive for the dollar (UUP), the yen (FXY), and US Treasury bonds (TLT), and very negative for US stocks (IWM), the euro (FXE), oil (USO), copper (CU), gold (GLD), and silver (SLV). That house you think you recently bought at the bottom just fell in value by 5%. If you have been reading this letter in recent weeks, you already have all of the right positions and are sitting pretty. If you don’t, you better start reading....MORE