Friday, April 13, 2012

Crestmont Research on Where in the Bear Are We?

Thanks to a reader for the catch, I was wearing three hats yesterday and didn't see this link.
One of the proofs of mastery in any field is the ability to explain to a child what you are doing. If you can't do that you aren't as sharp as you think you are (and most of us aren't).

One of the attractions of Crestmont's output is the fact they attack the problem of valuation with sophisticated analysis while presenting the results in terms so basic they approach elegance (in the mathematical sense, not high fashion).

Here's an example, via MarketBeat:
...Here’s what Easterling has to say about the charts:
Secular bear markets tend to start with the market P/E in the low to mid-20s. Second, secular bears tend to end with P/E in or near single digits.
Our current secular bear started at bubble levels.  P/E has declined by more than half over the last decade.  Nonetheless, we remain near levels that portend the start of secular bears rather than the end of them.  The only way to have a secular bull from here is to experience a resurgence to bubble levels.  Since the current secular bear started at such lofty levels, it may well turn out to be our longest one too.
...MORE, including the charts