I don't often disagree with A.E.P. but this time I'm dubious the 'war premium' decline would be causitive of a downmove.
I'd be more willing to bet that China slows down the rate of both Strategic Petroleum Reserve purchases and imports in general.
From the Telegraph:
The Middle-East "war-premium" in current oil prices is poised to fall after a tentative breakthrough on Iran's nuclear programme over the weekend, offering a soothing tonic for battered equity markets across the world.
Baroness Ashton, the EU's diplomatic chief, said talks between Iran and six world powers had been "constructive and useful". The two sides agreed to fresh negotiations in May.
"We expect that subsequent meetings will lead to concrete steps towards a comprehensive negotiated solution which restores international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of the Iranian nuclear programme," she said.
Alaeddin Boroujerdi, head of the foreign policy in Iran's parliament, said the new approach was a "big development" and might clear the way for an end to sanctions.
Analysts say fear of conflict in the Gulf has added $10 to $15 a barrel to the price of oil. The rapprochement comes after OPEC producers agreed to crank up crude output to cool the overheated market.
Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi said his country aims to avert the sort of oil shock that followed last year's Arab Spring, which sent the global economy into a skid....MORE