Monday, April 2, 2012

AIG Back Into Mortgages = A Top For the Homebuilders (XHB; ITB)

Hot on the heels of Saturday's "Lumber Says This Is A Top For Housing Stocks" (ITB; XHB)" and Sunday's "Follow up to "Lumber Says This Is A Top For Housing Stocks" (ITB; XHB)" we have a roundup from Schaeffer's Research:
Time to Call a Top for Homebuilders?  
Signs of anecdotal sentiment have started to crop up for housing stocks
by 4/2/2012 1:37 PM
It looks like American International Group (AIG) is considering moving back into the home loan business again. And I remember seeing an article last week about Goldman Sachs (GS) raising money for an investment fund that would gain exposure to home loans and the "housing recovery." Couple that with a Barron's magazine cover titled "Home Prices Ready to Rebound," and I'm definitely seeing a few anecdotal signs of positive sentiment toward the housing sector.

Whenever you see anecdotal sentiment indicators like this, you also want to look at the quantitative sentiment. What people are actually doing with their money can be even more important than what you are seeing and hearing in the news and media. The biggest thing that stands out to me is short interest....MORE
With the broader market up ~6/10% the homebuilder ETF's are down .66% and 1.07%.