Friday, July 1, 2011

"Corn report calls time on grain rally. Or does it?" (USDA to Re-survey)

It is going to be a brutal opening for the longs, many contracts closed locked limit-down.
First up Agrimoney:
Is the rally in grain markets over?
Many analysts foresaw data on Thursday showing US sowings and stocks of corn far greater than had been expected as calling time on the bull run dating back exactly a year, when sowing setbacks in Canada, and growing fears for Russia's drought sent prices soaring.
At Powerline Group, Darren Dohme wrote an "obituary" for corn, saying the fresh data implied US inventories ending 2011-12 at nearly 1.2m bushels, well above the figure of 695m bushels which helped prices of the grain hit a record high earlier this month.
"A memorial service will be held at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange margin department for all those that were still holding long with corn," Mr Dohme said, forecasting prices of Chicago's December lot falling back eventually to $5.55 a bushel, down more than $1 from Wednesday's close.
Weather challenges?
However, many other investors were more reluctant to call time on the rally.
Offre & Demande Agricole said that world corn supplies remained "very tight", leaving production prospects vulnerable to weather setbacks.
"There is no room for a weather problem in corn this year," the French-based group said.
And at New York-based Teucrium Trading, which issues commodity-based exchange traded funds, company president Sal Gilbertie said that, while the highs in corn had been seen for now, he was "not comfortable with calling the end of the bull market"....MORE
From the USDA:

NASS to Collect Additional Acreage Data
Issued June 30, 2011 by the Agricultural Statistics Board of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service. For more information contact Lance Honig at (202) 720-2127 or
In July, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will collect updated information on 2011 acres planted to corn, soybeans, Durum and other spring wheat in four states.

NASS previously collected planted acreage information during the first two weeks of June, with the results published in the June 30 Acreage report. At the time of the survey, a large percentage of acres remained to be planted in four states: Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota. To better assess planted acreage, NASS will resurvey the growers in these states in July.

If the newly collected data justifies any changes, NASS will publish updated estimates in the Crop Production report, to be released at 8:30 a.m. EDT on Thursday, August 11. It will be available online at