Back When Jeremy Grantham Was Too Optimistic: August, 2007

This is a repost from August 28, 2007:
Grantham says the S&P 500 could lose 40% between late 2008-

Jeremy Grantham, chairman of institutional money manager GMO LLC, sees the tug-of-war between bulls and bears continuing over the next year.

"I expect the market will fight against going down, and keep on fighting," said Grantham, who oversees the investment strategies of the Boston-based firm.

Grantham predicts the bears will gain the upper hand after next year's presidential election. "Corporate profits are up but margins are down," Grantham said. "If they continue to fall, the market can go down a lot."

How much? Grantham says the S&P 500 could lose 40% between late 2008 and the end of 2010....More from Marketwatch Aug. 12, 2007

The Friday before Mr. Grantham's comments were published, the DJIA closed at 13,239.54 on its way to the all-time high (14,164.53). The March 9, 2009 low close was 6,547.05, for a 50.5% decline from the Aug. 12 close.

The collapse took only 19 months rather than the 40 Mr. Grantham was talking in public. The steeper fall and compressed timeframe are trifles. If you are on the right side of a major move the battle is three-quarters won.
I was joking with the headline;
A most remarkable call.