Monday, March 14, 2011

Japan Earthquake Disaster: Market Watchers React

One of the things MarketBeat does very well is get instanalysis from five-ten analysts on a company or financial release.
Here they do it with global macro:
The markets are quickly trying to digest the financial and economic impact of the earthquake disaster in Japan. The Nikkei tumbled 6.2%. (Shares in Hong Kong and China held up a bit better.) Here is some of the reaction we’re reading from those in the markets this morning, with many looking to the aftermath of the 1995 Kobe earthquake for guidance.
BNP Paribas: EURJPY should break higher following the impact of the earthquake and the nuclear disaster in Japan. This morning, USDJPY and EURJPY traded down to 80.70 and 112.70 respectively as the market tried to use the market reaction following 17 January 1995 Kobe earthquake as a guide which saw the [yen] rallying by 20%. The Kobe quake wiped out [$100 billion] of the economy, but the insurance loss was a moderate [$3 billion]. Today, AIR Worldwide estimates the insurance loss between [$10 billion and $35 billion] suggesting that the insurance related [yen] inflow would be bigger today.

Matthew Heimermann, J.P. Morgan: The first modeling company to publish a loss estimate for the magnitude 9.1 Honshu/Tohoku earthquake (up from magnitude 8.9) was AIR Worldwide, which is estimating an insured loss range of $14.5-$34.6 billion, net of recoveries from JER (Japanese Earthquake Reinsurance), for commercial and residential shake and fire losses as well as agriculture. The estimate does not reflect tsunami and surge losses at this point, nor the developing situation at nuclear facilities. The large variability reflects uncertainty about how widespread shake losses will be, especially with respect to distant areas such as Tokyo....SIX MORE