Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Yes Virginia, it is a Secular Bear Market: "Peak Earnings Versus Stock Peaks"

The lower-than-'07 peak is really all you need to know. Combined with the hallmark of secular bear markets,  P/E compression, we are still forecasting 2014 before we finally get up a head of steam in "real" inflation-adjusted valuations. In the meantime it is a trading market. And remember that 2014 date is 2-5 years earlier than many prognosticators are opining.
Lifted in toto from The Big Picture:
Goldman Sach’s David Kostin created this chart comparing earnings peaks with market action.
In addition to showing how overpriced the market was in 1999/2000, it suggests an SPX peak relative to current ( estimate of a near term peak) his earnings:
click for bigger chart

Goldman Sachs chart via ZeroHedge