Saturday, October 23, 2010

Hurricane Watch: Tropical Storm Richard Computer Model Tracking Forecasts

The storm is tracking further west than was indicated 24 hours ago. If Richard doesn't threaten Gulf oil production and the French get their collective acts together, look for a $3-5 decline in WTI. On Friday the futures were last $81.69, up $1.13.

As the Houston Chronicle's SciGuy says:
If this were September we'd definitely need to be wary about Richard aiming toward Texas and strengthening back into a hurricane. But it's late October and there are a couple of reasons why we need not be concerned.
First is upper-level wind shear, which disrupts the circulation of hurricanes and can literally rip them apart. Wind shear values of less than 20 knots are generally favorable for storm intensification.
The following graphic shows average (climatology) and measured (current) wind shear values across the Gulf of Mexico basin, and values bottom out between mid-July and mid-September. By this time of year, however, shear values are much higher....MORE
Via Wunderblog: