Tuesday, October 5, 2010

More from Société Générale's Albert Edwards (Oct. 5, 2010)

Yesterday I had promised to get back to Albert "in an hour" but got caught up in other things.
[uh huh. Tesla's letterhead? The terminal velocity of cats? -ed]

Via FT Alphaville:
...The rally that started in July and continued into September was just “the market working off an extreme oversold position as it carves out a long-term top before entering the third lef of a multi-decade valuation bear market”.
Got that?
Here’s some more from SocGen’s perma bear:
As is often the case, the market writes the news. Economic data is interpreted in such a way as to fit in with the market movements. In a technical rally a spotlight is often held to stronger economic data that was ignored just a few weeks before.

So we regard the recent surge in investor optimism as a red light (see chart below), especially at a time when leading indicators are still pointing to economic weakness ahead. We note, for example, that while the headline ISM for the US slipped to 54.4 in September, the backlog of orders crashed well below the critical 50 level to 46.5. The last time this occurred was October 2007, just one month before ‘The Great Recession’ officially began!...MORE 
Mr. Edwards isn't a perma-bear. For a couple weeks in July 2009 he was "Société Générale's Albert Edwards, über Bull"

"Société Générale's Albert Edwards: "Batten Down the Hatches" (October 2010)