Thursday, May 13, 2010

American Superconductor Overpriced, Going Higher (AMSC)

The stock is trading up 5% at $30.72.
In October '09 I said:
I'm starting to think that this is one of those stocks that always seem overpriced.
I passed on Berkshire Hathaway the first time it was shown to me, at $800/share.
As one of my mentors used to say, "Stocks are smarter than analysts (fund managers, etc.).
Here's the latest:
From Reuters:

AMSC Q4 tops Wall Street; sees sequential rise in sales

* Sees FY adj EPS $1.15-$1.20

* Shares rise as much as 8 pct (Recasts; Adds conf. call and analyst comments, updates share movement)

By Fareha Khan

BANGALORE, May 13 (Reuters) - American Superconductor Corp (AMSC.O), which makes electrical systems for wind farms and turbines, posted quarterly results that beat estimates, and said it sees a sequential rise in sales in the coming quarters.

Shares of AMSC jumped as much as 8 percent to a high of $31.69 on heavy volumes on Nasdaq. They later pared some of the gains and were up 5 percent at $30.71 in midday trade Thursday.

On a conference call with analysts, AMSC said it sees first quarter earnings rising slightly, sequentially.

The energy technology company expects adjusted earnings for the current fiscal year to be $1.15 a share to $1.20 a share, on revenue of $415 million to $425 million.

It had earlier forecast full-year adjusted profit to exceed $1.15 a share and revenue to exceed $400 million.

For the current fiscal, analysts were expecting earnings of $1.17 a share on revenue of $421.7 million, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Broadpoint Amtech analyst John Hardy, who kept his "neutral" rating on the stock, said the tight outlook range was a positive.

Chief Executive Greg Yurek said in a statement, "We have approximately 90 percent of our forecasted revenues in backlog, which gives us a high degree of confidence we will grow revenues by more than 30 percent year over year.">>>MORE

The Wall Street Journal was less reserved:

American Superconductor 4Q Profit Soars, Tops Analysts' View

American Superconductor Corp.'s (AMSC) fiscal fourth-quarter soared, topping :

analysts' estimates, as sales of its power systems climbed and margins widened significantly.

For the new year the energy-equipment company projected earnings of $1.15 to $1.20 a share on revenue of $415 to $425 million, compared with February's view of more than $1.15 and $400 million, respectively. Analysts' latest average estimates were $1.17 and $422 million, according to Thomson Reuters.

American Superconductor's sales have surged as it swung to the black the last few quarters. The company is growing at nearly twice the rate of the wind industry overall, though that pace will likely slow, according to a Wunderlich Securities research note. In addition to wind-turbine gear, American Superconductor makes electric ship motors, super-efficient power cables and other products....

Meanwhile, in another part of the Dow Jones empire Tech Trader Daily said:
American Superconductor FY Q4 Edges Estimates; Shares Gain

American Superconductor Corporation F4Q09 (Qtr End 03/31/2010) Earnings Call Transcript