Thursday, April 15, 2010

Financials: "A Look at the Big Six" (AXP; BAC; C; GS; JPM; MS)

There was a reason we went nuts with Citigroup postings starting five weeks ago.
On March 9 the stock closed at $3.82 up 7.3% on the day. That's enough to grab one's attention and ask the question "Is it going higher?". We came up with a yes and decided to spread the word. We put up two posts that day.
The next day we said, in "A Jump in American International Group Attracts Call Players (AIG)":
Of the government owned ventures (GOV's), Citigroup is the standout. AIG could sell every asset they have and not come up with enough cash to repay the federales. Fannie and Freddie are dead without the cash transfusions from the Treasury.
I don't follow GMAC, GM or Chrysler.
C has outperformed it's peer group by an order of magnitude, take a look at the charts from Bespoke Investment Group:

The big financial companies have gone parabolic lately with the exception of one -- Morgan Stanley. As MS remains stuck around the $30 level, companies like AXP, BAC, C, GS, and JPM have been soaring. Citigroup, American Express, and Bank of America look especially overbought. Only JP Morgan has reported first quarter numbers. The rest of them report in the coming weeks. With the run-ups these firms have seen recently, how much higher can they go before taking a breather?

Citi closed yesterday at $4.93 up 6.7% and is reporting earnings after the close on the 19th.
Stay tuned.
Mar. 9
"Citigroup: ‘Shares no Longer Toxic?’ and Smart Money Buying?" (C; AIG; FNM; FRE)

Mar. 9
Citi Up 7% on Treasury’s Exit: Should You Buy? (C)

Mar. 10
Who Scores Big on a Move in Citigroup? John Paulson, Bruce Berkowitz, George Soros; the usual suspects

Mar. 10
"Citigroup's Stock Likely to Keep Climbing: Bove" (C)

Mar. 11
"Citigroup CEO Pandit Expected to Say Citicorp Could Earn $20 Billion By 2012" (C)

Mar. 19
"Citi-Bull Sheds Just Under a Quarter Million Put Options" (C)

Mar. 22
"Bove on Citigroup: Buy" (C)

Mar. 23
"Soros’ Citigroup Bet: Is He in the Money Yet?" (C)

Mar. 25
"Treasury Said to Have Plan for Citigroup Shares" (C)

Mar. 25
High Praise for Bloomberg's Citigroup Story (C)

Mar. 26
"Sandler O’Neill on Citigroup: Shares Underowned by Institutions" (C)

Mar. 29
"AN INTERVIEW WITH BRUCE BERKOWITZ: Why the Fairholme founder finds AIG, Bank of America and Citi very attractive now." (AIG; BAC; C)

Apr. 7
"Citigroup: The Case for Continued Growth" (C)