...We may have already emerged from the CYCLICAL bear market. One definition is a 20% up move that follows a 20% down move. I've never cared much for hairsplitting on the shorter moves. Secular moves are different. Regarding the secular bear market from 1966 to 1982 ('64-'82 depending on your pick of mid-sixties market tops) Warren Buffett comments:December 31, 1964: DJIA 874.12
December 31, 1981: DJIA 875.00
“Now I’m known as a long-term investor and a patient guy, but that is not my idea of a big move.”
From HealthTechTopia (MastersInHealthInformatics):
And 39 MORE
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HT: Al Fin
*If you think that was good timing how about a March 5, 2009 (four days before the market bottomed) post, "I Wanna Be Sedated: Top Strategists Still Expecting a 46% Gain From Here":
There is historical precedent. After the 89% decline to the 1932 bottom the DJIA better than doubled in a year (via Gold-Eagle)...Or this series:
...And there have been a fair number of 50% rallies over the years....
March 1, 2009
Marc Faber: Stocks Poised to Rally
March 10, 2009
Marc Faber: More Boom, Less Gloom and Doom
March 10, 2009
S&P 500 5% Days
...I'll go with Faber on the timeline, at least three, maybe six weeks before we see a change in direction, i.e. more than a one day move....March 13, 2009
Markets: Where Do We Go From Here?
I wasn't bullish enough but the fact is, if you recognize the turning point and are on the right side of the move it's easier to extend the time-frame and raise the target than it is to get on the right side in the first place.
On Tuesday I said "I'll go with Faber on the timeline, at least three, maybe six weeks before we see a change in direction, i.e. more than a one day move.", referring to Marc Faber's comment:Using the low I.Q. approach* to investment analysis, refined by yours truly, while we will have some down days in the next two weeks, the trend will be up.
“Equities could rally between here and the end of April,” Faber said. “The government’s efforts will fail to boost economic activity. They can boost stocks. Stocks have adjusted meaningfully.”
Faber thinks the rally will likely be short-lived, saying that after the March to May rally, the S&P 500 could drop 27 percent to below 500. But on a long-term perspective, he sounded very bullish, saying investors will make money over the next 10 years....MORE
Then come the first quarter earnings reports and the crystal ball gets a bit cloudier....
The timing accuracy was, of course, just informed luck, but the great thing is: the market pays luck the same as it pays skill.