From the Houston Chronicle's NewsWatch: Energy blog:
What 'The Man' says: Natural gas production data from the Energy Information Administration.
It appears the overall economic outlook for 2010 is going to be better than 2009, but what does that mean for natural gas prices? Here are some of the expert outlooks:
The Energy Information Administration's short-term outlook for 2010 is for consumption to remain flat:
EIA expects the annual average natural gas Henry Hub spot price for 2010 to be $5.36 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), a $1.30-per-Mcf increase over the 2009 average of $4.06 per Mcf. The price will continue to increase in 2011, averaging $6.12 per Mcf for the year.
We are maintaining our 2010 calendar year forecast at USD6/mmBtu, which incorporates a USD5.50 entry price in the current quarter and a modest recovery throughout the year. For 2011 and 2012, we are forecasting USD6 and USD6.25/mmBtu. With ample supplies available from the shale plays and imported LNG, we are no longer expect a return to a long-term 8-10 to 1 oil/gas price ratio. We believe that USD6-7/mmBtu prices are sufficient to generate supply under normal market conditions over the next few years.