Thursday, July 23, 2009

Scariest Headline of the Day: "Investors Coming Off The Sidelines"

I haven't been posting on the market recently for one simple reason: I'm out of my depth.

This despite a lifetime at the market (just about anything tradable, investable, gamblable, wild-ass-speclable).

The current market has run higher faster than I imagined. One of the most important things to know about markets is to recognize when you don't know.
So we've been doing some trend-following, tight stops, let-the-market-talk-to-you stuff.
I wouldn't do it with your money and hate doing it with ours.
I laughed (pure relief) when I saw this post at Bespoke a couple nights ago:

The most notable headline we saw today came in Bloomberg's coverage of Blackrock's (BLK) earnings conference call. During the call CEO Larry Fink noted that:

BLK Cash Comments

This marks an important shift from six months ago when cash was, for most investors, the only acceptable option. While some could interpret this statement as a sign that sentiment is turning too bullish, we would note that two key words in the statement -- "began" and "ask" -- suggest that investors are only beginning to become more tolerant for risk.

I've somehow managed to internalize Chairman Warren's famous quote:

“Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful”

to the point that I am a bit spooked right now.