Friday, June 5, 2009

Are Goldman's Oil Swaps Clients Piling Back Into Oil?

With two oil price forecasts* in twenty-four hours Goldman is certainly using it's big megaphone to draw attention to the trade. ZeroHedge has a couple very interesting charts on the action in the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index.

If you recall, this was one of the vehicles whereby CalPERS, the university endowments and other GS clients were able to avoid speculative position limits. Goldman using their designation as a 'commercial' would buy the actual futures. They would then enter into unregulated private swaps agreements with the institutions Et voilà, the institutions could have as large a position as they wanted, bless their hearts. Here's ZeroHedge:

Volume Explosion Seen In Goldman Sachs Commodity Index
...the GSCI has a 73.5% weighting in energy commodities. Of the total index, 45% is weighted to Crude Oil. Of the remaining 27% of the index, 10% is allocated to each of agricultural commodities and industrial metals. The final 7% is split between precious metals and livestock. The GSCI is designed to reflect reality without concern for investability.

(click on chart for larger view)

As the song said, "There's Something Happening Here..."

Goldman: Oil Going Higher (or Lower) $85 (or $70)

Goldman Raises Year-End Crude Forecast by 31% to $85
Always, always be skeptical of anything Goldman says regarding commodities.*
J. Aron is one of the company's crown jewels and was the springboard for CEO Lloyd Blankfein.**...
See also some pieces from last year:
Commodity Prices: Hedge Fund says it's University Endowments and Pension Funds
A Different Take on Speculators and Oil
Oil Bubble? The Debate Rages
UPDATE: The CFTC, Commodity Speculators and Mom
Gas could fall to $2 if Congress acts, analysts say