Friday, June 19, 2009

Société Générale's Albert Edwards "New Stockmarket Lows 2nd half of 2009"

Update here.
In our June 4 post "Société Générale's Albert Edwards, über Bull" Mr. Edwards had shown us the probable course of the recovery:

An Armenian K:
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Now, if I am reading the secondhand relay of SocGen's weekly commentary correctly, he's giving us the timeframe. From ZeroHedge:
Just released, a new and highly relevant Weekly Strategy report out from Albert Edwards of Societe Generale. Not only does Edwards, who was previously vilified then praised for calling the 1997 Asian Bubble, see a significant drop in equities before the end of the year, his main concern is every optimist's greatest green shoot: China.
Most areas in the markets have now discounted a V-shaped recovery. Any doubt will trigger a rapid reversal in prices. I continue to be extremely sceptical and see recent events as part of a 1930s-like, long march to revulsion. Talking about long marches, nowhere in the world fills me with more scepticism than the Chinese economic recovery. The continued enthusiasm for all things China reminds me so much of the way investors were almost totally blind to the fact the US growth miracle was built on sand. China could be the biggest disappointment yet.
Edwards follows up with some very amusing observations on mass delusions...MORE
HT: Investment Postcards from Cape Town
See also...Some earlier posts featuring Mr. Edwards:

Quote of the Day: Albert Edwards, Société Générale

May 8, 2008
This Week’s Advice: Canned Food, Guns and a Ham Radio

June 26, 2008
Société Générale: “We see a y-shaped global recession. We are going down before looping backwards”

September 5, 2oo8
"Meltdown"-Société Générale

September, 2008
Société Générale: Prepare for the Great Unwind, part Deux

Jan 28, 2009
People I Listen To: "Albert Edwards: Back in the bear camp