Saturday, June 13, 2009

Deflation v. Inflation

You tell me.

...Below is a chart indexing home prices (Case-Shiller National Home Index), share prices (S&P 500), average hourly wages and household debt per working person. Obviously, assets and debt got way out of balance against income, particularly about 10 years ago....

(click to enlarge)

From Sudden Debt who writes:
...A few months ago this blog's masthead used to proclaim: "We hold this truth to be self-evident: We cannot solve a debt crisis by issuing more debt". By definition, therefore, the only way to resolve this crisis is to allow debt to be destroyed in as orderly a fashion as possible, taking as long as possible in order to avert social consequences.

My view, thus, is that we are in for a long period of persistent asset/debt deflation that will eventually bring debts and asset prices into closer balance with incomes. At least that should be the aim of our policy makers. But, truth be told, I am not sure at all that they see things this way...

Time will tell.