Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Hurricane Watch:Gustav's inland. What's next in the tropics? And: Hats off to the hurricane center

Two from SciGuy:

Let's do a tour of the tropics. First up, the season's fourth hurricane:


The computer models have come into strikingly good accord for the 75-mph Hurricane Hanna today, and it's now with some confidence that we can predict a moderate hurricane will strike the southeastern U.S. late this week, probably along the Georgia or South Carolina coasts or possibly Florida....


There are a lot of potential tropical storms and hurricanes lurking out there in the tropics. The Hurricane Center has identified three of them in addition to Gustav, Hanna and T.D. Nine. Here's the hurricane center's latest tropical outlook map:...Continued



...The average error for a five-day forecast is more than double the 120 statute miles they were off by. Moreover, their intensity forecast at five days out called for a 115-mph hurricane at landfall, and it came in at 110 mph. That's incredible.

The hurricane center gets beaten up when it misses on forecasts, so it's only fair they should get credit when they absolutely nail one.

In fact, during the last four days prior to landfall, the hurricane center did an exceptional job of keeping the forecast point of landfall on central Louisiana. What do I mean? Take a look at the computer model runs from midday Friday:...