Tuesday, June 17, 2008


Just a link to this week's Crop Progress Report as the survey period did not include the full extent of the Iowa floods and thus gives an incomplete picture. Instead, here's the June 8-14 USDA National Weather summary:
Highlights: Flooding worsened in parts of the upper Midwest under a siege of additional heavy rainfall and runoff from earlier downpours. In Iowa, the Cedar River at Cedar Rapids crested on June 13 at a stunning 11.12 feet above the previous flood of record (and 19.12 feet above flood stage), submerging much of the state’s second-largest city. Flood waters continued to drain from Iowa, northern Missouri, southern Wisconsin, northern and western Illinois, and southern Indiana, halting all navigation by week’s end on more than 300 miles of the Mississippi River at a dozen lock and dam facilities stretching from Bellevue, Iowa, to Winfield, Missouri. Heavy rain also continued to pound the southeastern Plains, including Oklahoma (minus the panhandle) and eastern Kansas, limiting fieldwork and increasing disease concerns for unharvested winter wheat. Farther north, wet weather further eased drought in Montana and North Dakota, although very chilly weather slowed crop development. Snow was reported on June 10-11 on Montana’s high plains. Snow also blanketed the northern Rockies, while cool weather elsewhere in the Northwest further delayed the development of winter grains and spring-sown crops. Chilly conditions also prevailed elsewhere in the West, except for mid- to late-week warmth spreading from California into the Southwest. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms dotted the Southeast, although hot weather boosted irrigation demands*>>>MUCH MORE

From the University of Illinois:

...While feed and residual use of sorghum is expected to increase, the total consumption of sorghum, barley, oats, and wheat is expected to decline by about 3.4 percent. The cut in domestic feed and residual use of corn will be accomplished in a number of ways. The USDA expects the number of grain consuming animal units to decline by 1.1 million, or about 1.2 percent. Domestic feeding of soybean meal is expected to increase by nearly one percent and we project that domestic feeding of distillers grains could increase by about 32 percent. Adding the projections for the various categories suggests that total feed and residual use of grain and protein will decline by 8.5 percent and that use per animal unit will decline by nearly 8 percent. Estimated consumption per animal during the current year, however, is very high and may reflect an overestimate of the size of the 2007 U.S. corn crop. Still, consumption per animal unit during the 2008-09 marketing year is expected to be near the lowest level of the past 10 years. Some of the reduction may be offset by increased feeding of hay and forage made available by the CRP initiative described two weeks ago.

Corn prices have moved sharply higher as production expectations have been scaled back. It is still not clear how much rationing will be required during the 2008-09 marketing year. The USDA will release its annual Acreage report on June 30 which may provide some insight into potential crop size. However, some acreage had not yet been planted or replanted at the time of data collection. The report, then, will still reflect a fair amount of planting intentions. Harvested acreage for grain may also be difficult to anticipate with the recent widespread flooding. The USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on June 27 and may give some hint of how livestock producers are responding to higher feed prices. Responses, however, may not completely reflect the recent surge in feed prices....

And from DTN:
Market's Job: Ration Demand

*Earnings for Lindsay this week