Thursday, October 11, 2007

Oil Prices, Behavioral Finance and Climateer Predicts

On September 28, with oil at $82.90, we posted
"Climateer Predicts" which said, in part:
1) Recent action on the NYMEX leads us to the view that oil prices
will see $60 before they see $100.
(This comes with the standard Force Majeure provisions*, of course)

Key observations made in behavioral finance literature include the lack of symmetry between decisions to acquire or keep resources, called colloquially the "bird in the bush" paradox, and the strong loss aversion or regret attached to any decision where some emotionally valued resources (e.g. a home) might be totally lost.

There are three possible results of this study:

1) Ride the position, the original prediction was right.

2) Double (quadruple) down, "faint heart ne'er won fair maiden".

3) Eject! Eject! Eject!

prompted by the last thing I read:
"And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him. And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and with the beasts of the earth."
For some insight into Climateer's character, we bring out the photo album:

"...and we can't get the chicken to stop dancing..." is not the art of scholars, but of illiterates....(e.g. Climateer)