Friday, October 26, 2007

2007 Yearly Tropical Cyclone Activity to Date

Like a losing ticket at the races, my hurricane futures are only a writeoff.*
From the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies at Florida State:

Unless a dramatic and perhaps historical flurry of activity occurs in the next 11 weeks, 2007 will rank as a historically inactive TC year for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole. During the past 30 years, only 1977, 1981, and 1983 have had less activity to date (January-October 26). However, the year is not over...

For the period of June 1 - October 26, only 1977 has experienced LESS tropical cyclone activity than 2007.
There is currently NO worldwide tropical cyclone activity

Accumulated Cyclone Energy Departure from Climatology
(Updated thru October 26, 00Z) **** Current ACE (climo ACE)
Northern Hemisphere = -32% **** 316 (464) (Historic inactivity, 16% of season to go)
North Atlantic = -28% **** 63 (88) (Bill Gray wants 4 more (huh?, Season 91% over)
Eastern Pacific = -60% **** 52.2 (129) (Kiko made like a ghost, Season 95% over)
Western Pacific = -26% **** 179 (241) (Still 21% of yearly activity to go)

Take a look at the site for charts of cyclone energy.
*Or as Hunter S Thompson put it
(and we quoted, along with some guy named Keats):

"Still humping the American Dream, that vision of the Big Winner somehow emerging from the last minute pre—dawn chaos of a stale Vegas casino. Big strike in Silver City. Beat the dealer and go home rich. Why not? I stopped at the Money Wheel and dropped a dollar on Thomas Jefferson—a $2 bill, the straight Freak ticket, thinking as always that some idle instinct bet might carry the whole thing off. But no. Just another two bucks down the tube. You bastards! No. Calm down. Learn to enjoy losing. The important thing is to cover this story on its own terms..."*