Tuesday, September 4, 2007

Weather Watch

Felix made landfall, more here.

And this:
East coast of the U.S. at risk from new tropical disturbance
An area of disturbed weather formed off the north coast of Florida yesterday, and this disturbance has been designated 99L by NHC. Strong upper level winds from the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over 99L, and satellite loops show that these winds are keeping all of 99L's heavy thunderstorm activity pushed over to the southeast quadrant of the storm. This shear is forecast to remain between 15 and 25 knots over the next five days by the GFS model, so any development of 99L should be slow. Despite the relatively high shear, the computer models are mostly calling for 99L to develop. Steering currents are weak in the region, and the models agree that 99L is likely to make a clockwise loop over the next three days, then potentially threaten (take your pick):

UKMET: North Carolina on Saturday
NOGAPS: Florida on Friday
HWRF: New York on Saturday
ECMWF: South Carolina on Friday
Canadian: North Carolina on Saturday

The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system at 4pm EDT Wednesday.

The tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles (98L), couldn't hold together its circulation any longer in the face of four days of wind shear and dry air. The disturbance has degenerated into a loose swirl of disorganized clouds. There is still some rotation evident on satellite imagery, and this region will need to be watched over the next few days.