Friday, September 7, 2007

Watch the Volume in Oil Futures

Myra Saefong (DJ) has a nose for news.
In a brief post at the WSJ's Energy Roundup she draws our attention (and if we missed the key point, the markets editor was kind enough to highlight it for us [twice]) to the distribution currently under way in oil futures contracts:

Crude-oil futures fell on record volume on the New York Mercantile Exchange, as an unexpected fall in U.S. payrolls fed concerns about the potential for weaker energy demand....

...Crude futures reached a record 616,688 contracts, beating the 588,444 traded on January 11, the Nymex said.

As we said on Tuesday:
Could it be that some major players were caught long oil in the run-up to it's high of $78.77?
If so the range between $74 and $79 would be where they made their bets. Look for a move to, at minimum, the midpoint, $76.50, on any news, excuse, whatever and then look out below.

E. H. Harriman, one of the smartest operators ever to turn Wall Street to his advantage was quoted as saying:
"I can distribute more stock on upticks than I can on downticks"

Sorry for the paucity of posts the last couple days, sometimes reality intrudes.
I really should teach the avatars (Bloggengeezer and Klimatar) how to type.