Sunday, December 28, 2025

Jobs: "The highest paid entry-level engineers in the world are at Hudson River Trading and Jane Street"

From eFinancial Careers, December 19: 

OpenAI might be paying exorbitant fees to poach quants and traders from prop trading firms, but it's a different story when it comes to engineering talent. Levels.fyi has released its annual compensation report which shows that the two best companies for entry-level engineering roles are Hudson River Trading and Jane Street.

Jane Street has historically won in this category but, this year, Hudson River took the crown. It bumped up pay to an eye-watering $400k on average, while Jane Street stayed flat at $350k. 3rd place OpenAI, in comparison, paid just $300k.

Five of the top 7 firms for level-1 engineers were finance firms in one way or another. Quant hedge fund Two Sigma came fourth, New York fintech Ramp came fifth, and Dutch prop trading firm Optiver came sixth; each paid between $255k-265k on average. Rounding out the list was data infrastructure firm Databricks....

....MUCH MORE 

Also at eFinancial Careers:

Citi's most stylish repo trader is now on the beach 

Artificial Intelligence: Large Language Models Are Not The Be-All And End-All Of AI

A quick hit from MIT Technology Review's Hype Correction series:

....01: LLMs are not everything

In some ways, it is the hype around large language models, not AI as a whole, that needs correcting. It has become obvious that LLMs are not the doorway to artificial general intelligence, or AGI, a hypothetical technology that some insist will one day be able to do any (cognitive) task a human can.

Even an AGI evangelist like Ilya Sutskever, chief scientist and cofounder at the AI startup Safe Superintelligence and former chief scientist and cofounder at OpenAI, now highlights the limitations of LLMs, a technology he had a huge hand in creating. LLMs are very good at learning how to do a lot of specific tasks, but they do not seem to learn the principles behind those tasks, Sutskever said in an interview with Dwarkesh Patel in November.

It’s the difference between learning how to solve a thousand different algebra problems and learning how to solve any algebra problem. “The thing which I think is the most fundamental is that these models somehow just generalize dramatically worse than people,” Sutskever said.

It’s easy to imagine that LLMs can do anything because their use of language is so compelling. It is astonishing how well this technology can mimic the way people write and speak. And we are hardwired to see intelligence in things that behave in certain ways—whether it’s there or not. In other words, we have built machines with humanlike behavior and cannot resist seeing a humanlike mind behind them.

That’s understandable. LLMs have been part of mainstream life for only a few years. But in that time, marketers have preyed on our shaky sense of what the technology can really do, pumping up expectations and turbocharging the hype. As we live with this technology and come to understand it better, those expectations should fall back down to earth.  

02: AI is not a quick fix to all your problems....

....MUCH MORE 

If interested see also December 20's "AI: "A brief history of Sam Altman’s hype" (MIT Technology Review's Hype Correction series)". 

The intro to and outro from December 20, 2024's "What is an AI agent? A computer scientist explains the next wave of artificial intelligence tools

We've been saying it (sometimes literally*) for quite a while, chatbots are not the be-all and end-all of artificial intelligence.... 

AI: Chatbots Are Sooo 2023; Here Comes Interactive AI

"ChatBots Are Not The Be-All And End-All Of Artificial Intelligence":

Far from it.
And all the focus on ChatBots and LLMs are more than just a distraction, they are a perverse representation of what AI is doing and will do and could potentially cost you money or opportunity or both....

ChatBots Are For Children: "What’s Ahead for OpenAI? Project Strawberry, Orion, and GPT Next"

IEEE Spectrum - "What Are AI Agents?" 

"First impressions of ChatGPT o1: An AI designed to overthink it"

CoinTelegraph has developed an artisanal, homebrew AI specialty. Here's one of our previous visits:

AI Use Case: Biological Immortality By 2030
This would be a pretty good answer to the question "What is the use case for AI?"

But I don't buy it. AI will be like the nanotech revolution that never was, never that is, in the sense of a nanotech industry. Instead, as with nanotech, AI will be embedded in the processes and protocols of every facet of human existence and we won't even notice it.

 "AI agents are the 'next frontier' and will change our working lives forever"

 Former Google CEO Schmidt On The Ever-Increasing Tempo Of AI

Also:

Where Is Artificial Intelligence Going From Here: One Of The Gurus Speaks

Related, October 2025:

Can AI Identify An AI Bubble?

Google AI says no:

While AI can be a powerful tool for detecting patterns that might indicate a bubble, it cannot definitively determine if a bubble exists
. The complexity of human behavior and unpredictable events means AI models are best used as a component of analysis, not a replacement for human judgment...

"A Wealth Tax Floated in California Has Billionaires Thinking of Leaving"

From the New York Times, December 26:

It’s uncertain whether the proposal will reach the statewide ballot in November, but some billionaires like Peter Thiel and Larry Page may be unwilling to take the risk.

Billionaires including Peter Thiel, the tech venture capitalist, and Larry Page, a co-founder of Google, are considering cutting or reducing their ties to California by the end of the year because of a proposed ballot measure that could tax the state’s wealthiest residents, according to five people familiar with their thinking.

Mr. Thiel, 58, who owns a home in the Hollywood Hills and operates a personal investment firm from Los Angeles, has explored opening an office for that firm, Thiel Capital, in another state and spending more time outside California, three of the people said.

Other billionaires who appear to be making moves to decrease their presence in California include Mr. Page, 52, a longtime resident of Palo Alto. He has discussed leaving the state by the end of the year, according to two people briefed on the talks. In mid-December, three limited liability companies associated with Mr. Page filed documents to incorporate in Florida, according to state records.

The moves are being driven by a potential California ballot measure from the health care union, Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, the people said. The proposal calls for California residents worth more than $1 billion to be taxed the equivalent of 5 percent of their assets.

If the measure gains enough signatures to reach the state ballot in November and wins approval, it will retroactively apply to anyone who lived in California as of Jan. 1, 2026. Those with $20 billion in assets who resided in the state on that date would face a one-time tax of $1 billion and have five years to pay it, according to the terms of the measure.

Whether the proposal will reach California’s ballot is far from certain, but some billionaires may be unwilling to take the risk. For Mr. Page, whose net worth is estimated at $258 billion, the measure could result in a one-time tax of more than $12 billion. The tax bill for Mr. Thiel, whose net worth is around $27.5 billion, could be more than $1.2 billion.

Representatives for Mr. Page and Mr. Thiel did not respond to requests for comment.

The potential wealth tax is under debate as the income divide in the United States becomes increasingly stark. Recent data from the Congressional Budget Office showed that income inequality increased over a 33-year period ending in 2022, with the share of wealth held by families in the top 10 percent at around 69 percent, while the share held by families in the bottom 50 percent at just 3 percent.

In California, the S.E.I.U.-U.H.W. has said the proposed tax measure could raise up to $100 billion from about 200 billionaires. The money could be used to offset federal budget cuts, the union has said.

Suzanne Jimenez, the chief of staff at S.E.I.U.-U.H.W., said the organization was trying to fill a funding gap for the state’s health care industry. “We looked at how could we generate the revenue to fix this kind of hole, and this group of folks just made sense,” she said, adding that California billionaires were the “most fortunate people in this state.”....

....MUCH MORE 

I'll use the intro to a mid-November post as the outro from this one:

“the art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest 
possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing.”

attributed to  Jean-Baptiste Colbert, Controller-General of Finance (1668-83) under Louis XIV of France.

As seen in November 17's "Norway's Wealth Tax Unchains a Capital Exodus". 

Looking ahead, it might be nice to find a case to bring to the Supreme Court to overturn Citizens United and get unions and other corporations out of politics.

"Family Offices Have Become the New Power Players on Wall Street"

From the Wall Street Journal, December 26:

Wealthy families are launching offices to manage their money at a record clip and are getting a seat at the table in significant deals 

Family offices are the new power players on Wall Street.

A growing number of wealthy Americans are launching family offices, firms that do everything from investing money for the superrich to managing their personal affairs. They are huge and secretive, and their influence on Wall Street and Main Street is only growing.

Families with these offices recently oversaw about $5.5 trillion in wealth, a 67% jump from five years ago, according to Deloitte. The firm expects that figure to rise to $6.9 trillion this year and top $9 trillion by 2030. It estimates that in coming years, these offices will manage more money than hedge-fund firms. 

Banks and other firms are hungry to cater to family offices’ every need, while entrepreneurs and investment managers are clamoring to land a slice of these families’ immense wealth. 

“It’s not just growing, it’s exploding,” said Hendrik Jordaan, a partner at Nelson Mullins who works exclusively with family offices. “I really think about the family office world being the next private equity.”

Launching a family office is in vogue. While the biggest ones have long managed billions of dollars on behalf of titans such as Jeff Bezos, Michael Dell and Bill Gates, many families with hundreds or tens of millions of dollars in wealth are launching them, too, or turning to so-called multifamily offices to manage their fortunes. There are more than 8,000 single-family offices globally today, up roughly a third from 6,130 in 2019, according to Deloitte. The firm expects that figure to top 10,000 by 2030.

“It’s kind of become the word for ultrahigh-net-worth families. Do you or don’t you have a family office?” said Justin Flach, managing director of wealth strategy for Ascent Private Capital Management at U.S. Bank, who typically works with families with net worths topping $75 million. 

“There’s some status assigned to that. You’re at a cocktail party talking about it,” Flach said. 

How the superrich deploy their firepower has vast implications for the fortunes of businesses in almost every U.S. industry, global philanthropy and the broader economy. As this money trickles through the economy, it stands to transform the fate of businesses tied to everything from artificial intelligence and data centers to dental offices and medical spas. 

Given the sums they can invest, big family offices can sometimes compete against large institutional investors on deals, putting them up against behemoths such as Apollo Global Management and Blackstone

Family offices can find their way into public-company merger deals, too. The offices of late Pequot Capital founder Arthur Samberg and Addison Fischer are among the backers of fusion-energy company TAE Technologies, which struck a deal this month valued at $6 billion to merge with Trump Media and Technology Group

Unlike public pension-fund managers, who answer to local teachers and firefighters, or hedge-fund firms, which regularly provide financials to investors, family-office leaders don’t answer to anyone but themselves. That gives them vast latitude to hold investments for decades and ride out periods of stomach-churning volatility, or make large and concentrated wagers. Traders and advisers say that family offices often have little interest in hedging their bets through tools such as derivatives....

....MUCH MORE 

 A topic near and dear.

Among dozens and dozens of posts on the subject:

Competitive Intelligence Macquarie Style: First Establish a Fake Family Office...

Family Office/Outside Managers Not Quite Cutting It? Maybe What You Need Is A Family Bank

"Are You Fit to Be a Family Office CEO? Work on These Must-Have Qualities"

The most important character trait expected of a family office leader is discretion. And it is only mentioned in passing in this article, which focuses on nuts-and-bolts issues.

You also have to have the mindset of a principal while simultaneously psychologically embracing of the humility to subservient yourself to the needs of the family, including, if need be, running a concierge service....

...Our package: complete Family Office services including concierge and butler, art appraisal, succession and estate counseling and life-coaching.

Or, for the truly discriminating, ask about our Luxe programme with unbiased private equity ROI analysis.
(includes party planning option)
Also the dynasty series:

News Your Dynasty Can Use: How The Habsburgs Stayed So Powerful For So Long
Tips on playing the long game....

Should you be contemplating establishing a dynasty, you have come to the right place.
You are going to want a seat of power and Construction Physics has a primer on "How To Design A House To Last 1000 Years."

Finally, how to pay for it all without risking everything on that dissolute great-grandchild that is sure to pop up:
Anti-Piketty: Merrill Lynch's Tips on Creating a Financial Dynasty

I've always liked the Wikipedia entry on the Habsburgs:
The progenitor of the House of Habsburg may have been Guntram the Rich, a count in the Breisgau who lived in the 10th century....
Yup, having someone with the honorific "The Rich" in the fam. is always a running start to your dynastic ambitions.
Oh Crap, I Almost Forgot Karl, The Last of the Habsburgs
And finally:
Why Real Estate Ownership Is Required For Intergenerational Wealth
We've looked at the importance of housing as a cornerstone of intergenerational wealth a few times, and not just for piles like this:

https://www.historic-uk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/arundel-west-sussex-1024x527.jpg

That's the courtyard of Arundel Castle, it's been in the fam (Fitzalans; Howards; Fitzalan-Howards) since the mid-1200's (with a few reversions to the Crown). More after the jump....

 

Saturday, December 27, 2025

"Tech Wrapped 2025"

From the San Francisco Standard, December 21:

996 workweeks, vanishing entry-level jobs, and an engineer with 44 employers: Here’s a roundup of Silicon Valley by the numbers. 

This year kicked off with an image straight out of “The Godfather”: tech titans Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, and Jeff Bezos in the front row at the presidential inauguration, kissing the ring. 

It’s not a scene many would have predicted in 2017 — or even 2021. And things only got crazier from there.

This was the year of an unfettered, exuberant (dare we say bubbly?) AI goldrush, with fortune-seeking college dropouts packing into hacker houses to grind from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. Startup founders struggled to hire engineers, and several even got scammed into hiring the same coder at the same time. Recruiting started to look like the NBA, with AI researchers jumping between companies, sometimes lured by packages worth hundreds of millions of dollars (opens in new tab)

Rage-baiting became a legitimate marketing strategy, and founders began hiring etiquette coaches and attending finishing school to know which soup spoon to use. Longevity went mainstream, and illegal Chinese peptide injections became the latest productivity hack. 

All to say that it was a wacky year in Silicon Valley, worth one last look in the rearview mirror. Here are the most eye-popping factoids from 2025. 

Secondary sales went gangbusters

Secondary sales — wherein employees and investors sell shares in a private company to outside buyers or back to the company as a way to turn paper wealth into big bucks — began ripping in 2025. 

In October, OpenAI closed a $6.6 billion secondary sale (opens in new tab) for current and former employees, while SpaceX, Databricks, ByteDance, and other companies offered similar opportunities for staff to cash out their millions. 

Many began using those windfalls to buy Bay Area homes — interior designers, real estate agents, and contractors said they’ve never been busier. The influx of secondary-sale millions into the housing market prompted grim jokes that San Francisco renters are being pushed into a permanent underclass (opens in new tab) as nouveau riche techies snap up all available inventory. 

***

A Gen Z job-apocalypse

For new grads, the job prospects in Silicon Valley turned grim in 2025, as Big Tech and startups leaned into automation and hired more seasoned workers.Hiring of new grads by the 15 largest tech companies has fallen 55% since 2019, according to VC firm SignalFire. The gap between the overall unemployment level and that of recent college grads reached an all-time high, according to census data.

“It used to be the land of milk and honey, where students had considerable choice,” Paul Ganting, director of career services at San Francisco State’s business school, told The Standard earlier this year. “But that abundance just isn’t there anymore.”

Waymo and the circle of life....

"NVIDIA’s Christmas Eve 'Hackquisition' Miracle" (NVDA; GOOG)

From Spyglass, December 25:

NVIDIA gets a creator of the TPU, access to inference tech & IP, and stops anyone else from getting such things. All for a mere $20B...  

Twas the night before Christmas and all through the house, not a creature was stirring, not even a... wait. What's that? Is that Jensen Huang scurrying around doing deals over the holidays?!

It sure is!

Well, presumably he had been working on the deal with the specialized AI chip startup Groq before the holidays started. But I also wouldn't rule out that this deal came together in a hurry given what we know about how he's operated in the past with some mega deals, such as the um, (up to) $100B investment in OpenAI. A deal which came together quickly, perhaps on a trip with a certain President, and perhaps right after the rumors of OpenAI potentially looking at a deal with Google to use their TPUs – we'll come back to that. It was also a deal which was announced three months ago but apparently still has not been finalized, by the way, so there's that.

Anyway, you can't help but wonder if the real key for the timing here may have been to bury it under the spirit of Christmas. Because boy is it a doozy.

CNBC first broke the news with the headline: "Nvidia buying AI chip startup Groq for about $20 billion in its largest acquisition on record". But as it turns out, that wasn't quite right. And actually, it was NVIDIA that wanted to make that clear. They weren't buying Groq, they were merely paying Groq that $20B for a "non-exclusive licensing agreement".

Oh, you've heard that terminology before? Of course you have. It's the magical incantation one must cite in order to summon the spirits of the "hackquisition".

With this deal, NVIDIA is following their Big Tech brethren down this now well-trodden path. Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and NVIDIA have done deals which aren't technically acquisitions, but effectively are. Because they allow the acquiring – sorry, non-acquiring – company to sort of pick and choose what they want from the acquired – sorry, non-acquired – company in exchange for considerations that can go to... well, sort of anyone they choose. Certainly the investors to get them to sign off on such deals, and often the key employees at those companies. Sometimes the other employees of the companies too, but that's mainly so they don't feel bad and/or raise a stink about the faux-deal. Because when they do that, all hell tends to break loose, at least from a PR-perspective.

Anyway, the first wave of "hackquisitions" were almost more like "hackquihires" because they were simply a way to get access to key talent at those companies and any licensing agreements were seemingly an excuse to make it all a little less blatant. But as such deals have grown in size, they've grown to look even more like actual acquisitions. For example, Meta's nearly-$15B deal with Scale.ai bought them 49% of that company alongside their key talent, namely CEO Alexandr Wang. Why? Presumably Meta wanted more for that amount of money and they thought Scale, a hot company at the time, might still give them some upside. Of course, they were also effectively gutting said company and it seems decidedly less hot now – especially since many of their customers were Meta competitors who no longer wanted to send their data to Scale – shocking, I know. Still, Meta also likely believed they could use Scale's service to help with their future model training – efforts which were rebooting alongside bringing Wang on board.

NVIDIA's Groq deal seemingly has similarities. Namely, the key was clearly to bring CEO Jonathan Ross on board. And every story also points to company president Sunny Madra being crucial as well. But beyond that, it sounds like NVIDIA may actually care about some of the IP rights here (which they're presumably getting a license to with their "non-exclusive licensing agreement"), to be able to leverage Groq's techniques in would-be future chips.

In that way, "non-exclusive" feels less important here – that's another framing to make it seem less like an acquisition, but is anyone else really getting access to this IP now? Regardless, NVIDIA probably feels confident that with Ross and Madra – not to mention their own in-house prowess – they'll be able to implement it and execute upon it far better than anyone else. And they're undoubtedly not wrong.

And that points to another layer to this as well. Ross is not just a co-founder of Groq, he's also the creator of the TPU – something which he cites in his own bio. You may recall the TPU was last a part of a major news cycle when Jensen Huang was "delighted" about Google's success with their AI chips. How do I know that NVIDIA is actually not so "delighted" about Google's success here and is in fact sweating the rise of the TPU? Well, this deal, for one!....

....MUCH MORE 

Recently:

And on the TPU:

November 25 - CHIPS: Google's Tensor Processing Unit (Finally) A Viable Competitor For Nvidia (GOOG; NVDA)

....While we've been tracking the GOOG's TPU progress for a decade, this morning Zerohedge found a dandy little write-up on the chips that we'll go with rather than use back-links.... 

European Carmakers Needn't Focus On China On Their Home Turf, They Will Be Crushed In Emerging Markets

From Robin J Brooks' substack, Dec. 9:

China's invasion of EM car markets 
China's massive ramp-up in vehicle production mostly targets emerging markets

China is plowing massive resources into becoming a global player in cars. A lot of this push is happening in electric vehicles (EV), which is why you hear so much buzz about electrification in China. As I discussed on Sunday, this isn’t about being “green.” After all, 70 percent of China’s electricity production uses fossil fuels. Instead, this is mostly about the same old mercantilism that’s driven every other decision in recent decades. For whatever reason, China’s leadership decided that it needs to be a global player in cars, especially EVs. Lots of cheap electricity and the infrastructure that comes with that are necessary conditions for this.
***
China’s race to dominate the EV sector represents a major threat to European car makers. As I noted in yesterday’s post, cars imported from China are rising as a total share of car imports into the Euro zone, but what’s playing out in Europe is peanuts compared to what’s happening across emerging markets (EM). The left chart above shows the value of imports into the Euro zone from China in percent of total car imports. This number is up to 14 percent currently from around four percent back in 2019, i.e. just before COVID. The right chart shows the same ratio for Brazil, where it’s gone from 10 percent before COVID to 36 percent now. The threat to European car makers is twofold: (i) the threat of direct exports from China into the EU; (ii) a big increase in competition across EM as China floods these markets with cars....

....MUCH MORE 

Friday, December 26, 2025

"Nvidia's Groq deal underscores how the AI chip giant uses its massive balance sheet to 'maintain dominance'" (NVDA)

From Yahoo Finance, December 26: 

Nvidia’s (NVDA) licensing deal with chip startup Groq (GROQ.PVT) shows how the tech giant is leveraging its massive cash pile to sustain its preeminence in the AI market.

Nvidia this week said it struck a non-exclusive deal with Groq to license its technology and hired the startup’s founder and CEO Jonathan Ross, its president, and other employees. CNBC reported the agreement to be worth $20 billion, marking Nvidia’s largest-ever deal. (The company declined a request for comment on the figure.)

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said in a note to clients Thursday that the Nvidia-Groq deal “appears strategic in nature for NVDA as they leverage their increasingly powerful balance sheet to maintain dominance in key areas.” Nvidia’s cash inflow climbed more than 30% from the previous year to $22 billion in its most recent quarter.

"This transaction is ... essentially an acquisition of Groq without being labeled one (to avoid the regulators' scrutiny)," added Hedgeye Risk Management analysts in a note Friday....

....MUCH MORE 

Earlier today:
"The economic divide between big and small companies is growing"

"Nvidia Licenses Groq's AI Chip Tech, Grabs Top Execs In Not-Quite Takeover" (NVDA)

It's something unpredictable, but in the end is right
I hope you had the time of your life...

—Billie Joe Armstrong

"The economic divide between big and small companies is growing"

But you knew that.* 

From the Wall Street Journal via MSN, December 25: 

It has been a good year for most of America’s biggest companies, with surging profits and enthusiasm for artificial intelligence propelling stocks to record highs. But for many small businesses, it has been just the opposite.

At small businesses, which are unable to withstand economic headwinds as easily as their larger counterparts, years of high inflation, increasingly cautious consumers and tariffs are weighing on earnings and prompting cutbacks. Over the past six months, private firms with fewer than 50 workers have steadily shed jobs, according to payroll processor ADP, cutting 120,000 in November alone. Midsize and, especially, large firms have continued to add jobs.

Cumulative change in employment since Dec. 2024, by firm size

Typically, in early December, Almost Famous Popcorn would have been staffing up for the holiday rush, when the gourmet popcorn company does 60% of its sales.

“In a normal year we’d hire 10 to 15, and this year we’re closer to four or five,” said Sydney Rieckhoff, chief executive of the Cedar Rapids, Iowa-based company. “We’re definitely seeing more thoughtful spending,” she said, with companies placing smaller orders for client and staff gifts.

It has been a good year for most of America’s biggest companies, with surging profits and enthusiasm for artificial intelligence propelling stocks to record highs. But for many small businesses, it has been just the opposite.

At small businesses, which are unable to withstand economic headwinds as easily as their larger counterparts, years of high inflation, increasingly cautious consumers and tariffs are weighing on earnings and prompting cutbacks. Over the past six months, private firms with fewer than 50 workers have steadily shed jobs, according to payroll processor ADP, cutting 120,000 in November alone. Midsize and, especially, large firms have continued to add jobs.

Cumulative change in employment since Dec. 2024, by firm size

Typically, in early December, Almost Famous Popcorn would have been staffing up for the holiday rush, when the gourmet popcorn company does 60% of its sales.

“In a normal year we’d hire 10 to 15, and this year we’re closer to four or five,” said Sydney Rieckhoff, chief executive of the Cedar Rapids, Iowa-based company. “We’re definitely seeing more thoughtful spending,” she said, with companies placing smaller orders for client and staff gifts.

The growing divide between the fortunes of small and large businesses mirrors the divide that has emerged over the past year between low-income Americans and their high-income counterparts. That split among categories of consumers is exacerbating, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest compilation of economic anecdotes from around the country, known as the beige book. “Overall consumer spending declined further, while higher-end retail spending remained resilient,” it said.

The growing divides are also related: Workers at small businesses tend to earn less than those at large companies. And the increases in stock-market wealth stemming from the rally in shares of large, public companies accrue mostly to the rich.

“We’re seeing two different economic realities on both the consumer and the business landscape,” said Bank of America Institute economist Taylor Bowley.

Giant, well-capitalized businesses such as Amazon.com and Nvidia generally have had a very good year. Net income for the large, publicly traded companies in the S&P 500 was up 12.9% from a year earlier in the third quarter, according to LSEG..... 

....MUCH MORE
*
This dynamic has been one of our guiding principles for investing in the 2020's. 

April 2023 - HBR—From Pareto To Hyper-Pareto: "AI Is Going to Change the 80/20 Rule"

This type of information advantage is more and more accruing to the biggest and richest of corporations. It is a type of rich-get-richer advantage akin to the flywheel effect.

And related, now that we see what is happening, what, if anything, should society do about it?

...Much more important than the direct monetization of big data is the strategic advantage it can bestow over time.
In a winner-take-all economy, as in a horse race, small differences in superiority are rewarded all out of proportion to the actual advantage. A top thoroughbred may only be a couple fifths of a second faster than the field but those two lengths over the course of a season can mean triple the earnings for #1 vs. #2.
In commerce the results can be even more dramatic because rather than the 60%/20%/10% purse structure of the racetrack the winning vendor will often get 100% of a customer's business.....
February 2024 - The Hyper-Pareto Distribution Of Profits Is Happening Right Now (plus an anniversary)

It's not some cutesy management* fad or pop insight like "Business secrets of Genghis Khan."

To the rich go the profits and internalizing that fact makes the rest of this portfolio construction/fund management/investing stuff easier to conceptualize and execute.

And AI is accelerating the already extant dynamic....

Just to reiterate, every incremental advantage that a company can afford does not affect income production in isolation. They accrete in sometimes unforeseeable combinations:

How to Think About Companies: "Advantage Flywheels"
A very handy conceptual framework first posted after the start of the U.S. lockdowns, April 2020. Schools were closed so it seemed natural to link to a superb mini-MBA module.  
Eat your heat out HBR....

 *****

As artificial intelligence comes more and more to the fore, the advantages accruing to those companies that can afford to make use of their data and custom train the machines will act as advantage flywheels that shift the distribution of profits from the normal Pareto: 80% of the loot goes to the top 20% of businesses to perhaps as much as 95% of all the profits going to the top 5% of businesses.

I didn't really mean the "eat your heart out HBR" line.

Here's the Harvard Business Review on this very point:
HBR—From Pareto To Hyper-Pareto: "AI Is Going to Change the 80/20 Rule"

July 2025 - "The 'new normal' of growth stock dominance"

What our five years of blather regarding advantage flywheels is all about.....

***** 

"Analyzing the deepening divide in learning capabilities between a few corporate giants and the rest of the world." (plus advantage flywheels)

"America's Biggest Firms' Moat Is Becoming Impregnable" (TSLA; NVDA; GOOG)
The announcement at the end of August that Tesla was going live with their supercomputer — Elon Got Himself A Supercomputer: "Tesla's $300 Million AI Cluster Is Going Live Today" (TSLA)—reminded me of this piece at ZeroHedge, last month. We'll be back with more on Morgan Stanley's Tesla note later today but for now the TL;dr is "To the victor go the spoils" or "The rich get richer" or "Those who can afford a supercomputer will get closer to discovering the profitability (if any) of AI than those who can't afford a supercomputer."
In Nvidia's World, If You (and your company) Don't Have Money You Will Not Be Able To Compete (NVDA)

The advantage flywheels keep spinning and reinforcing each other to the point that the Pareto distribution of profits - 20% of companies reap 80% of the profits - is becoming Super-Pareto where 5% of the companies reap 95% of the profits and is approaching Hyper-Pareto at maybe 2% of companies reaping 98% of profits.

It all comes down to having the resources to keep up. 

I watched Mr. Huang give the keynote and it's all a bit much to digest before firing out comments that would make any sense at all so here are some of today's headlines to give a taste of what the intro paragraph is based on.

These are Nvidia's press releases via GlobeNewswire....

"Elon Musk says any company that isn’t spending $10 billion on AI this year like Tesla won’t be able to compete" (TSLA)

This.

This is such an important concept to grasp. It's the advantage flywheels, the rich get richer, winner-take-all reality of business in 2024....

And many, many more. 

Again: 

"Next-Level Quantum Computers Will Almost Be Useful"

From IEEE Spectrum, December 23:

New machines will use individual atoms as qubits 

he goal of the quantum-computing industry is to build a powerful, functional machine capable of solving large-scale problems in science and industry that classical computing can’t solve. We won’t get there in 2026. In fact, scientists have been working toward that goal since at least the 1980s, and it has proved difficult, to say the least.

“If someone says quantum computers are commercially useful today, I say I want to have what they’re having,” said Yuval Boger, chief commercial officer of the quantum-computing startup QuEra, on stage at the Q+AI conference in New York City in October.

Because the goal is so lofty, tracking its progress has also been difficult. To help chart a course toward truly transformative quantum technology and mark milestones along the path, the team at Microsoft Quantum has come up with a new framework.

This framework lays out three levels of quantum-computing progress. The first level includes the kinds of machines we have today: the so-called noisy, intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) computers. These computers are made up of roughly 1,000 quantum bits, or qubits, but are noisy and error prone. The second level consists of small machines that implement one of many protocols that can robustly detect and correct qubit errors. The third and final level represents a large-scale version of those error-corrected machines, containing hundreds of thousands or even millions of qubits and capable of millions of quantum operations, with high fidelity.

If you accept this framework, 2026 is slated to be the year when customers can finally get their hands on level-two quantum computers. “We feel very excited about the year 2026, because lots of work that happened over the last so many years is coming to fruition now,” says Srinivas Prasad Sugasani, vice president of quantum at Microsoft.

Microsoft, in collaboration with the startup Atom Computing, plans to deliver an error-corrected quantum computer to the Export and Investment Fund of Denmark and the Novo Nordisk Foundation. “This machine should be utilized toward establishing a scientific advantage—not a commercial advantage yet, but that’s the path forward,” Sugasani says.

QuEra has also delivered a quantum machine ready for error correction to Japan’s National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), and plans to make it available to global customers in 2026.

The significance of error correction
Arguably, the main trouble with today’s quantum computers is their propensity for noise. Quantum bits are inherently fragile and thus sensitive to all kinds of environmental factors, such as electric or magnetic fields, mechanical vibrations, or even cosmic rays. Some have argued that even noisy quantum machines can be useful, but almost everyone agrees that for truly transformative applications, quantum computers will need to become error resilient.

To make classical information robust against errors, one can simply repeat it. Say you want to send a 0 bit along a noisy channel. That 0 might get flipped to a 1 along the way, causing a miscommunication. But if you instead send three zeros in a row, it will still be obvious that you were trying to send a 0 even if one gets flipped.

Simple repetition does not work with qubits, because they cannot be copied and pasted. But there are still ways to encode the information contained in a single qubit onto many physical qubits, making it more resilient. These groups of physical qubits encoding one qubit’s worth of information are known as logical qubits. Once information is encoded in these logical qubits, as the computation proceeds and errors occur, error-correction algorithms can then tease apart what mistakes were made and what the original information was....

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Deflation: "ANALYSIS: US Lobster Market Ends Year with Modest Demand and Depressed Prices"

From Seafood News, December 24:

https://library.urnerbarry.com/Images/lobster_quarters_dec_2025_2.png 

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"GE Vernova Stock Has One Big Catalyst—and One Big Risk" (GEV)

Also one small risk.*

From Al Root at Barron's, December 22:

GE Vernova had a wild week after new AI fears sent investors into a very brief tizzy.

Recent share price volatility tells investors something important about the stock and what’s driving it.

GE Vernova makes utility-scale power generation equipment. It’s become the go-to stock for investors looking to capitalize on the growing demand for electricity, driven mainly by power-hungry AI data centers.

U.S. electricity demand grew roughly 1% a year for the past 20 years. Wall Street expects growth to be closer to 3% annually for the coming 20 years.

That theme, along with strong business execution by Vernova, left shares up 100% coming into Monday trading. Shares doubled despite a 10.5% drop this past Wednesday, catalyzed by fears that startup Mythic might succeed in making AI chips that require less power. Shares recovered, however, and GE Vernova stock ended last week with a loss of just 2.3%.

All those stock moves leave GE Vernova valued at about 33 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda, expected over the coming 12 months.

The average industrial company in the S&P 500 trades for closer to 17 times.

GE Vernova gets the big valuation because Ebitda is expected to grow significantly. The company is expected to generate Ebitda of $3.4 billion in 2025, rising to about $11 billion by 2028. Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith expects it will grow to more than $18 billion by 2035.

That’s Ebitda growth of almost 20% a year for a decade. Making adjustments for cash generation and assuming stable valuation multiples, Dumoulin-Smith’s numbers imply double-digit gains for GE Vernova stock for a decade.

That’s great. That’s the risk, too. It’s tough to value things on 2035 numbers. A lot could happen between now and then. There isn’t much for investors to do other than be aware of the problem. GE Vernova stock simply implies a lot of growth for many years....

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*The small concern is that GEV might not maximize the opportunity from the current demand for natural gas-powered electricity generators. The company is ahead of the field in small nuclear reactors and has the wind turbine business that the market is not putting much value on. Should prospects in that business brighten GE Vernova has capacity.

But in the big utility scale turbines they are sold out through 2028, with the backlog stretching into the early 2030's.

There are good reasons not to invest in plant, property and equipment to raise capacity, including the fact the industry has been burnt twice in the last 25 years and the fact the typical American potential employee does not have the skills required to build these rather amazing machines.

Both of those issues can be addressed but doing so will take time and money. 

GEV is up a little this morning, +$1.49 (+0.22%) at $ 668.01.

"Nvidia Licenses Groq's AI Chip Tech, Grabs Top Execs In Not-Quite Takeover" (NVDA)

From Investor's Business Daily, December 25:

Nvidia (NVDA) will license key technology from AI chip maker Groq and bring over key personnel from the startup, Groq announced Wednesday afternoon. That followed a report that the Dow tech giant would pay $20 billion for Groq. Nvidia stock was indicated fractionally higher Thursday night.

Groq has entered into a non-exclusive licensing deal with Nvidia for the startup's inference technology, the company said in a press release. As part of the agreement, Groq founder and CEO Jonathan Ross, President Sunny Madra and some other Groq employees will join Nvidia.

Groq will remain an independent company, with CFO Simon Edwards becoming CEO. Specifically, Groq's cloud business is not part of the deal. But most assets may be going to Nvidia.

Earlier, CNBC had reported that Nvidia would pay about $20 billion to buy Groq outright.

Financial terms of Nvidia's licensing and hiring deal were not given. Nvidia itself has said nothing as of Christmas morning.

There is some speculation that the not-quite takeover structure is an effort to avoid antitrust objections.

Media reports still are touting a $20 billion figure, though if true it's unclear if that would be a lump sum or include some future milestone payments.

Groq Founded By Google TPU Creators....

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We had this story in the link-vault before the Groq story came out, it is still accurate. From CNBC December 4: 

Nvidia has a cash problem — too much of it

In early pre-market trading NVDA is up $1.08 (+0.57%) at $189.69  

Thursday, December 25, 2025

"Trading by algorithm: Who is responsible when AI calls the shots?"

From Caixin Global via Singapore's ThinkChina, December 19: 

A high-stakes showdown on Wall Street saw AI models, not humans, take the helm of trading — but when algorithms chase gains and cause chaos, who’s left holding the bag? Caixin Global journalists explore the topic. 

It was a battle unlike anything Wall Street had ever seen. No hedge fund managers. No financial analysts. No humans at all. Just lines and lines of code.

In the final weeks of 2025, a group of the world’s most powerful AI models — some from Silicon Valley giants, others born in the black boxes of Chinese quant funds — were given US$10,000 each and released into the real-world US stock market.

The challenge: trade like a pro for two weeks, without any human interference. All strategies, decisions, stop-losses and leverage calculations were made autonomously. No nudges from engineers. No override switches. Just pure machine logic, pitted head-to-head in a financial cage match.

By the end of the competition on 3 December, 
only one model had turned a profit. 
Better, or just luckier?
The tournament, known as Alpha Arena 1.5, was organised by the American AI research lab Nof1.ai, and framed as a kind of public beta test for the idea that large language models (LLMs) could serve as future fund managers. It wasn’t theoretical. Each model had access to tokenised contracts of real Nasdaq-listed stocks, facing actual market volatility, with transparent execution rules and a unified trading framework.

By the end of the competition on 3 December, only one model had turned a profit. Elon Musk’s Grok-4.20, developed by xAI, edged ahead with a 12.11% return, turning its US$10,000 stake into approximately US$12,200. Every other competitor — OpenAI’s GPT-5.1, Google’s Gemini-3-Pro, China’s DeepSeek-Chat-V3.1 from the quant fund High-Flyer Quant, Alibaba’s Qwen3-Max, Moonshot AI’s Kimi-K2 and Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 4.5 — finished in the red. The worst performer lost more than half its capital.

What the tournament exposed went far beyond performance rankings. Each model’s trades, strategies and responses to volatility were made publicly available, laying bare the distinct “personalities” of machines that, until now, had operated in opaque institutional silos. Were these AIs making high-dimensional statistical guesses — or had some begun to develop a market intuition alien to human logic? More provocatively: did Grok win because it was better, or just luckier?

(Graphic: Caixin)

(Graphic: Caixin)

The competition quickly drew comparisons to quant hedge funds, which have long deployed algorithms in pursuit of alpha — market-beating returns — but always behind closed doors. Here, for the first time, the world watched a transparent, head-to-head showdown between machines, not merely to see who could beat the market, but to ask whether AI is ready — or even fit — to manage real money. If so, under what rules? And who takes responsibility when it all goes wrong?

Even before the final results were in, questions were multiplying: Is AI a better stock picker, or simply a faster executor? Are we approaching a future in which retail investors follow bot recommendations as faithfully as analyst reports? And as regulators begin to take notice, can legal systems keep pace with machines that don’t just crunch numbers — but make financial decisions with real consequences?

Despite access to the same market data, these AI agents produced 
divergent outcomes — driven not by luck, but by the internal logics 
hardwired into their model architectures.

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The next version of the web will be built for machines, not humans

From The Economist, December 10:

AI will surf, shop and act on your behalf 

In 1999, a decade after inventing the world wide web, Sir Tim Berners-Lee, a British computer scientist, imagined an intelligent version of his creation. In that vision, much of daily life—finding information, making plans, handling mundane tasks—would be done not by people, but by “intelligent agents”: machines able to read, interpret and act. The web has evolved dramatically since its invention but the experience has remained manual—users still type, click and browse before they buy, read or watch.
 
Artificial intelligence (AI) may now bring Sir Tim’s dream within reach. Today’s large language models (LLMs) can summarise documents, answer questions and reason. What they cannot do for the moment is act. That, however, is changing with “agents”: software that gives LLMs tools which let them perform tasks, not just generate text.
 
The shift started in 2022 with the launch of ChatGPT. Many users began asking questions of chatbots, rather than putting keywords into search engines, to assimilate information that might be spread around the web. Such “answer engines” barely scratch the surface of the potential, however. Kevin Scott, chief technology officer of Microsoft, a software giant, reckons agents able to handle more complex tasks “are not that far away”. But for them to take over more of the work, the web’s plumbing must change.
 
A central obstacle is language: giving agents a way to talk to online services and each other. A website or online service normally talks to the outside world through an application programming interface (API), which tells visitors what it can do, such as booking a doctor’s appointment or supplying a map location. APIs, however, are written for humans, and each has its own quirks and documentation. This is a tough environment for AI agents, because they reason in natural language. Dealing with each new API requires learning its dialect. To act independently on the web, therefore, agents will need a standardised way to communicate.
 
This is the aim of the Model Context Protocol (MCP), developed by Anthropic, an AI lab. Mike Krieger, its chief product officer, says the idea came while linking Claude, its chatbot, to services like Gmail, an email platform, and GitHub, a repository of code. Instead of integrating each application with Claude on a case-by-case basis, the firm wanted a shared set of rules to help agents directly access a user’s emails or files. Rather than study technical guides, an agent can ask an MCP server what a system does—book a flight, cancel a subscription, issue a refund and so on—and then take an action on behalf of the user, without bespoke code.
 
Say you want to book a trip from London to New York. You start by giving your travel plans to a trip agent, which then subdivides the task between specialised agents that can look for flights, hotels and cars. These agents contact the MCP servers of airlines, hotels and car-hire firms, gather information, compare possibilities and create a list of potential itineraries. Once you pick an option, the trip agent would book the whole lot.

***

This type of co-ordination requires rules for how individual agents identify, talk to and trust each other. Google’s proposed solution is the A2A (agent-to-agent) protocol for this purpose. Agents can advertise their abilities to each other through this and negotiate which agent does what. Laurie Voss of Arize AI, a startup, says companies are in a “landrush” to define the dominant standards for the agentic web. The most widely adopted protocol will let its backers’ tools do more, sooner and better. On December 9th Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, Microsoft and others announced the Agentic AI Foundation, which will develop open-source standards for AI agents. Anthropic’s MCP will be part of this, signalling its wider adoption as an industry standard for agentic communication.
 
Still, most of the web that these agents will surf is made for human eyes. Finding a product still means clicking through menus. To let language models access sites more easily, Microsoft has built Natural Language Web (NLWeb), which lets users “chat” to any web page in natural language. Users could ask the NLWeb interface of a travel website, for example, for tips on where to go on holiday with three children; or what the best wine shops are in a particular place. Whereas traditional search might require clicking through filters for location, occasion and cuisine across several menus, NLWeb is able to capture the full intent of a question in a single natural sentence, and respond accordingly. Each NLWeb site can also act as an MCP server, exposing its content to agents. Thus NLWeb bridges the modern visual internet and one that agents can use....
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"How US manufacturing was gutted with a smile"

From Asia Times, December 21:

Smile Curve convinced US to value research, branding and design over manufacturing but the theory always measured the wrong thing  

Disarm you with a smile

And cut you like you want me to

Cut that little child

Inside of me and such a part of you

Ooh, the years burn

Ooh, the years burn

– Smashing Pumpkins

Few management theories have been as influential as the Smile Curve. And few have been as destructive. The influence of the Smile Curve has been profound, embedding itself in the strategies of global corporations for over three decades. While the curve may have “worked”, it was always measuring the wrong thing, misleading America into its current de-industrialized and de-skilled predicament.  

The Smile Curve was proposed by Stanley Shih, founder of Taiwan’s Acer Inc, in 1992. The company began in 1976 with the name Multitech as a computer parts distributor and consultant on the use of early microprocessors. By the 1980s, the company had become a manufacturer of IBM-compatible PC clones, selling computers under its Acer brand as well as contract manufacturing for third parties.

Through its various business lines, Shih discovered that most of the value was captured in R&D/branding, which differentiated products, and marketing/service, which drove revenue. The least value was captured by the company’s manufacturing arm, where competition compressed margins and capex requirements diluted returns.

With globalization – especially after China joined the WTO in 2001 – few business models were uncorrupted by the Smile Curve. Western companies (Japan and Korea included) crawled all over each other to divest manufacturing operations, become asset light and “move up the value curve.” Research, branding and design were sexy. Marketing and sales were rock and roll. Manufacturing was for hopeless bores with paunches and comb-overs.

 

Apple famously does not manufacture any of its products. Manufacturing had long ago been outsourced to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) like Foxconn.

The sweaty browed labor of manipulating a pair of dexterous hands, managing thousands of factory workers, troubleshooting finicky machinery, programming industrial robots and orchestrating just-in-time delivery from dozens of suppliers were all chores not only on the bottom of the Smile Curve, but also done in noisy, smelly, sometimes dangerous and always poorly decorated factories.

The “real work” was done in Apple’s swanky Cupertino offices, over an iced matcha latte macchiato, where MIT grads wrote code for whiz-bang user “experiences”, designers rounded the edges of rectangles and Harvard MBAs planned the next FOMO maximizing marketing campaign.

Of course, Cupertino is where the real work is done. Have you seen the cost breakdown of an iPhone? Have you seen an iPhone’s gross margins? A 256GB iPhone 16 Pro Max sold for $1,199 with a 59.5% gross margin. Its total build of materials was $485 – $428 in parts and $57 in assembly costs....

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"Chinese Court Sentences 27 People for Smuggling 166 Tons of Strategic Antimony Ingots"

Smugglers tend to know what's fungible.

From 19FortyFive, December 19:

Key Points and Summary – China has sentenced 27 people for smuggling antimony ingots out of the country, signaling a tougher enforcement phase in Beijing’s export-control push on dual-use minerals.

-The ringleader received 12 years and a 1 million yuan fine after authorities linked the network to falsified customs declarations and overseas partners. 

-Investigators say the scheme involved roughly 166 metric tons, with more than half intercepted.

-Antimony’s importance in flame retardants, batteries, semiconductors and defense-related components makes it strategically sensitive, and 2024 licensing rules widened the gap between domestic and overseas prices—creating strong incentives to smuggle via indirect routes, for Western industry and defense....

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