Wednesday, February 19, 2025

Nuclear Fusion: "France tops China’s tokamak record with 22-minute plasma containment run"

From The Register, February 20:

Nice number, but also not much more than a nice advance 

France’s Commissariat à L'énergie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives on Tuesday claimed it’s topped China’s recently-established for record maintaining fusion plasma in a tokamak, and therefore taken another step towards building a fusion reactor capable of producing cheap energy.

The Commissariat (French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission, or CEA) announced that its CEA WEST Tokamak maintained plasma for more than 22 minutes last week.

China’s Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak maintained a steady-state high-confinement plasma operation for almost 18 minutes in January....

....MUCH MORE

"Negative Aura: Gen Z and the Gamification of Outrage"

From Technoskeptical, January 5:

Is a generation trained with points and badges capable of acting on principle? 

If you’ve spent time around teenagers and twenty-somethings lately, you may have heard them using the terms “plus aura” and “minus aura” or “negative aura.” Roughly equivalent to “cool” and “uncool,” but rooted more in the social currency of attention and approval, this slang reflects the pervasive gamification of virtually every aspect of today’s youth culture.

Gamification – the use of video-game-like elements such as points, badges, and achievements – is ubiquitous in modern educational software, social media apps, and entertainment platforms. The approach is popular among software developers because it is effective in driving short-term engagement. Unfortunately, the long-term effects on users are quite harmful.

Intrinsic vs. Extrinsic Rewards

For over a century, behavioral researchers have known that reward-based learning is the key to shaping behavior. Put simply: we do more of what makes us feel good. When those good feelings emerge from within oneself (like a sense of accomplishment for achieving a goal, or personal satisfaction for learning a new skill), they are referred to as “intrinsic rewards.” When they come from external sources, like good grades, gold stars, and achievement badges, they are referred to as “extrinsic rewards.”

Clearly, gamification is based on extrinsic rewards. And that’s a big problem, because research has shown that using extrinsic rewards to motivate children undermines their ability to take action based on intrinsic rewards. For example, children who are given points and stickers for reading books become less likely to enjoy reading for its own sake. Giving kids rewards for reading doesn’t teach them to focus on reading; it teaches them focus on getting rewards.

Incidentally, this unintended consequence applies to virtually any form of instant gratification or visible metric, including grades. This is why, in every generation, many bright, self-motivated preschoolers become bored, apathetic elementary students who do the bare minimum required to earn decent grades.

But the gamification trend has made the situation far worse. Today, everything from social interaction to walking has been gamified with digital ratings and participation streaks. As a result, we now have a generation of young people motivated almost entirely by extrinsic rewards, rather than by core principles or the intrinsic value of what they’re doing. 

An often-overlooked problem with gamification is that whoever hands out the rewards decides what behavior is reward-worthy. Outside of school, rewards are often measured in likes, follows, shares, and other indications of peer attention and endorsement that comprise “aura.” Because of this, children who have been conditioned to focus on extrinsic rewards become young adults who are highly susceptible to peer pressure and prone to attention-seeking behavior.

As every middle-schooler knows, the easiest way to get attention is through behavior that is crude or antisocial. Broadly speaking, this is nothing new: every generation grew up with the class clown, the class flirt, and the class troublemaker – students who acted out in various ways to get attention. But while this used to be viewed by other kids as somewhat “desperate” or anomalous, acting out to get attention is now not only normalized, it is incentivized by social media algorithms that amplify emotionally-charged, inflammatory, and transgressive behavior.

Of course, not all attention-seeking behavior is rewarded by gaining aura. Appearing clumsy, foolish, or insincere is often regarded as negative aura. Because of this, outrage – especially performative outrage – has become one of the most socially rewarding and algorithmically-endorsed forms of attention-seeking behavior for Gen Z. By combining the self-righteous certainty of youth with social validation and the endorsement of powerful and well-funded but purportedly counter-culture organizations like BLM and Students for Justice in Palestine, young people have found that social activism is an effective way to gain aura, even though many of them have virtually no understanding of the issues they are denouncing.

While previous generations of protesters risked their reputations and social status to fight for ideals they deeply believed in, many members of Gen Z are doing the opposite: they are enhancing their reputations and social status by jumping on a bandwagon of peer-approved outrage.

This troubling phenomenon begs the question: has relentless gamification crippled Gen Z’s ability to act – or even think – authentically?

What’s Next?....

....MORE

Also at Technoskeptical:

Who Rules America?
It's not a conspiracy, it's business as usual

You've probably never heard of G. William Domhoff, but he is quite a remarkable man. Born in 1936, he is still actively working and lecturing on a topic he has been researching for over half a century: who controls our society, and how do they do it?

Domhoff's magnum opus is a slim volume entitled Who Rules America. He has updated it every few years since its initial publication in 1967, and the eighth edition was released in 2023. While the details and specific facts and figures have evolved over time, Domhoff's fundamental observations have remained consistent for the last six decades....

....MUCH MORE

And very related to both the first and especially the second Technoskeptical link:
Pity the poor avocado-eating graduates: "University-educated millennials have absorbed elite values but will never enjoy the lifestyle"

The Egg Traders: "‘Wall Street of Eggs’ Experiences Surging Demand Thanks to Bird Flu"

From the Wall Street Journal via MSN, February 18:

The nation’s biggest egg marketplace doesn’t own hens, farms or processing plants.

From an office building in New Hampshire, roughly a dozen people facilitate the trading of billions of eggs a year, a task that shapes what Americans pay per dozen at the supermarket or for omelets at diners.

The Egg Clearinghouse, or ECI, is little known outside the industry: It operates an online marketplace that allows participants to place bids on eggs listed for sale and see the results of trades. Only ECI members—farmers and egg buyers—are allowed to trade.

Lately, there are a lot more buyers than sellers using the “Wall Street of Eggs” with bird flu roiling the poultry market. And that is after last year marked the company’s busiest, trading over 2.6 billion shell eggs and 39 million pounds of egg product valued at more than $600 million.

ECI represents a sliver of the broader egg market—less than 5%—but plays a crucial role in providing eggs for those in need or having trouble getting them, and how they are priced.

“If you’re short on eggs, we’re the marketplace,” said Alan Munroe, president of ECI, a company overseen by U.S. egg producers and buyers. “We fill in the gaps.”

The brisk business comes as egg prices are scorching many Americans. Consumers on average are paying about $5 a dozen, a record high and double the price from roughly a year ago, according to the Labor Department. Supermarkets and other large-volume buyers are paying about $7 a dozen, making egg sales in some cases a money-losing proposition.

Demand has remained steady despite the high sticker prices, prompting some restaurants to add surcharges for egg dishes and consumers to step up purchases of liquid eggs or substitutes.

The deadliest outbreak of avian flu in history has resulted in the death of more than 100 million U.S. chickens, turkeys and egg-laying hens since 2022, according to the Agriculture Department. Once infections are identified in a single bird on a farm, whole flocks are often eliminated to prevent further spread, creating supply shortages in some regions and grocery stores.

For years egg-industry competitors relied on researchers visiting wholesale markets to set pricing benchmarks.

Egg producers and buyers set up ECI as an alternative way to price and trade the commodity versus larger exchanges that operated in New York and Chicago. ECI began brokering trades in 1971 and its board was made up of industry executives including Fred Adams Jr., the founder of the largest U.S. egg producer, Cal-Maine.

Similar to the stock exchanges, ECI doesn’t set a price for eggs. “The buyers and sellers determine the price, on our end we just facilitate that,” Munroe said.

The clearinghouse’s data helps research firms such as Expana set industry benchmark prices because ECI provides a window into the market not typically available, said Karyn Rispoli, managing editor of the egg division at Expana.

Most of the roughly 110 billion eggs laid by U.S. hens are contracted to commercial customers, ending up in places such as a Kroger supermarket, a Waffle House or a hotel breakfast buffet. Terms of those contracts aren’t public.

Through ECI, a buyer can bid for truckloads of eggs at a particular price. A farmer with eggs for sale responds with an offer. ECI collects a one-cent commission per dozen eggs it trades, regardless of whether the price is $2 or $8.

All trades are blind, and only after a deal does ECI allow the parties to know each other’s identity....

....MUCH MORE

Recently:

"Egg prices are surging, so why are chicken prices stable?"

And 2009:
Mix Butter, Onions, Cheese and Eggs. Add Electricity...
For some reason, this post from Freakonomics got me thinking about the Chicago Butter and Egg board, the Butter, Cheese, and Egg Exchange of New York and Title 7, Ch. 1, § 13–1 U.S. Code*:

Lightbulb Moment in Food History

Last week’s post talked about early-20th-century “egg gamblers” who bought eggs cheap in spring in order to sell dear in winter. Their kind of speculation proved not just controversial but also pretty risky, and ultimately doomed. Why?

Egg gamblers won only if they sold off their cold-storage stocks before fresh ones arrived in spring. They faced two major unknowns: housewives who sometimes protested egg “hoarding” with organized boycotts, and hens who might start laying earlier than expected. Because hens are acutely sensitive to shifts in daylight and temperature, all it took was a February thaw to set them off, sending egg prices plummeting.

Poultry farmers, meanwhile, just wanted to know how to get their own flocks to lay more eggs when fresh ones were scarcest and priciest. They knew that some chicken breeds laid a few more winter eggs than others, and that warm housing and a rich diet generally helped. But the most dramatic results came with the flick of a switch — literally.

Although few farmers in 1910 to 1920 had electricity, those who did discovered that hens couldn’t tell the difference between the sun and a light bulb....MORE
*Violations, prohibition against dealings in onion futures; punishment.
As with all things financial the scandals came first, the regulation followed, often to no good purpose.
I'll come back to butter and cheese next month. Here's a 1956 Time Magazine story "Odorous Onions" on the volatility of that market.
In the meantime here's a 1927 recording of "Big Butter and Egg Man..." by King Oliver's Creole Jazz Band, featuring Bessie Smith and Louis Armstrong

Probably not related:

"Find of the century? U.S. scrap dealer finds $20 million Faberge egg"

Okay, You Tell Me: How Do You Cut The Current Federal Debt and Deficit

Every single person talking about Our Democracy™ seem to shy away from the fact that if the Federal Budget isn't cut dramatically and cut fast, there is no democracy, the entire self-governance experiment will die, suffocated under a mountain of debt and interest payments.

That is not hyperbole, it's math.

From the Peter G. Peterson Foundation:

Every month the U.S. Treasury releases data on the federal budget, including the current deficit or surplus. The following contains budget data for January 2025, the fourth month of fiscal year (FY) 2025.

Federal Budget Deficit for January 2025:  $129B

Federal Budget Deficit for January 2024:    $22B

The federal government ran a deficit of $129 billion in January 2025, an increase of $107 billion from the deficit of $22 billion recorded in January 2024. However, because February 1, 2025, fell on a weekend, certain payments were shifted into January, boosting payments for the month. Additionally, December absorbed payments that would have occurred on New Year’s Day, a federal holiday, reducing January outlays in 2024 and 2025. Adjusting for those timing shifts, the January 2025 deficit would have been $22 billion greater than the same month in the previous year.

Spending in January 2025 was $143 billion more than in January last year, although most of that increase is attributable to the timing shifts. Controlling for those adjustments, outlays were up by $57 billion compared to January 2024. Driving that growth in spending was a $13 billion increase in payments for interest on the national debt, a $12 billion increase in spending on national defense, a $7 billion increase in outlays for Veterans Affairs, and a $7 billion increase in Social Security spending. Receipts were up $36 billion in January 2025 compared to the year before, with income taxes up by $23 billion, payroll taxes increasing by $6 billion, and collections of corporate receipts higher by $5 billion.

Cumulative FY25 Deficit: $840B

Cumulative FY24 Deficit (through January 2025) $532B

However, October 1, 2023, fell on a weekend, thereby causing certain federal payments to be shifted into the previous fiscal year (FY23) and artificially reducing the deficit in FY24. Additionally, outlays for the first four months of FY25 were inflated by February 1 payments, which fell on a weekend, thereby shifting into January. Without those effects, the deficit for FY25 through the end of January would be $752 billion, $148 billion more than the corresponding total for last year.

For the first four months of FY25, total outlays were $2.4 trillion, $319 billion higher than the same period in the previous year. Adjusting for the aforementioned shifts, spending was $159 billion above the same period last year. That increase was driven mainly by three categories: net interest rose by $39 billion; spending on national defense increased by $36 billion; and Social Security spending was up by $31 billion, mainly stemming from cost-of-living adjustments. Partially offsetting those and other increases was a $68 billion decrease in outlays by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation related to the resolution of bank failures that occurred last year....

Here's the 

Monthly Treasury Statement
Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government
For Fiscal Year 2025 Through January 31, 2025, and Other Periods 

40 page PDF

Cumulative FY25 Deficit: (-$840B) first four months of the fiscal year.