It appears the ensemble of model runs shown in the spaghetti graphs were accurate (so far) and Bermuda will avoid a direct hit. From Orlando's WESH Television 2 via "Tropical Storm/Hurricane Erin: Spaghetti Graph Of Model Runs Shows Track Between U.S. and Bermuda", August 14:
And from the National Hurricane Center, 8:00 am EDT, August 15:
Public
Advisory
#16A
800 AM AST
....DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 55.2 West. Erin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion
is expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the
center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern
Leeward Islands over the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days
and Erin is forecast to become a hurricane later today, and it could
become a major hurricane by this weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 998 mb (29.47 inches).....
