Wednesday, August 12, 2026

"Foot Soldiers of Financialization: When New York City Was Occupied By Yuppies"

From The Hedgehog Review, Summer 2026 issue: 

I met Chrome Dome, a retired trucker wearing a red MAGA hat over his bald head, in a Lewiston, Maine, McDonald’s three weeks before Trump was first elected. During the previous two years, I had interviewed thousands of people like him across the United States, in towns that, like Lewiston, were dealing with industrial decline and loss. I was pretty sure of what was about to come, down to the details—a soliloquy on decline, of good jobs moved to Mexico or China, of safe, clean neighborhoods destroyed by immigrants, of politicians who cared only about big-city billionaires and professors, not hard-working people, and then maybe a rant about Clinton (one or both), Obama, Reagan, or Bush (one or both), in that order of frequency.

Chrome Dome, in his early eighties, delivered it all with the usual color. Both of his parents had worked in textile mills that closed in the 1990s, he had a good childhood despite being poor because “we never wanted for anything,” and he had fashioned a good life for himself as a trucker, eventually moving into the house he was raised in and starting his own family. But all that had changed, and now his grandkids had no chance unless they left town and went to college and never came back, which is what he hoped they would do—because why would you stay in this shithole? And, of course, none of this was fair, and that was why he was voting for Trump. No, he didn’t usually vote, couldn’t remember the last time he had, because what was the point? Weren’t they all the same, out only for their billionaire friends? Sure, Trump was a billionaire, but not like the other ones, because he says things you aren’t supposed to say, and that gets everybody’s panties all twisted in a knot.

When I ask him when it all “went wrong,” he launches into a critique of the trucking industry, complains about the decline in lifestyle and wages over his life, and concludes by saying, “And that is the last time I voted for a president, because he stabbed us working people in the back.” “Reagan?” I ask. “No, Jimmy Carter.” And that is when I learn, to my embarrassment, that it was Carter, the candidate I had once campaigned for at my parents’ side, who had deregulated the trucking industry. 

That move was part of a larger program of deregulation that would reshape the country, triggering a deluge of consolidation, offshoring, and financialization. While this eroded America’s industrial base, especially in the Midwest, it engorged Wall Street with profits and filled New York City with young, highly educated professionals who would remake it along with the nation, and then result, arguably, four decades later, in Chrome Dome, like a lot of other “low-educational attainment” Americans, voting for and electing Donald Trump, to the surprise of everyone with a national voice.

Yuppies, a new book by historian Dylan Gottlieb, is an attempt to portray how sweeping a national transformation this set of policies (deregulation, financialization, deindustrialization) represented, by focusing on its foot soldiers in New York City: the meritocratic class of strivers who arrived in vast numbers beginning in the late 1970s. 

They were the top graduates of the finest colleges, drawn to New York City by extraordinarily high-paying jobs in companies that were anything but antiestablishment—bulge-bracket banks, global accounting firms, and the law firms that defended and supported both. They were living proof that whatever idealism the prior decade might have inspired, plenty of its members could still be enticed with a large and steady paycheck from a corporate America that soon manufactured little that was tangible, besides enormous profits.

Over the next decade, these men and women changed New York City at all levels—economically, demographically, culturally, and politically—reinvigorating a broken, crime-ridden city with the profits that derived from (depending on your perspective) either a transformational wave of productivity, efficiency, and economic growth, or from the strip-mining of working-class America, taking away all its people held sacred and replacing it with more stuff at lower costs.  

I was, and am, a member of this group, although I never saw myself as one. Yuppie was a dirty word when I was in college. Yet cultural forces have a way of shaping us despite our best intentions, and, six months after receiving a PhD in physics, I joined a booming Wall Street, walking a path blazed fifteen years earlier by the yuppies. My mother, a lifelong Democrat, never approved: The banks were not to be trusted, ever. They had foreclosed on her family dairy farm back in the 1930s, sending her, her brother, and her widowed mother into a decade of penury—and a lifetime of voting for the firmly anti-banking, working-class party, the Democrats.

I arrived on a Wall Street replete with new employees who looked nothing like me but thought like me. We were a diverse mix drawn from every part of the United States—from small Southern towns, from the Midwest, even from the trailer parks of Appalachia—all of us highly educated and sharing a philosophy best described as “libertarianism lite.” This was, uniformly, a socially liberal, fiscally conservative group who checked all the right diversity boxes and believed that individual liberty, especially when applied to businesses, was collectively beneficial and even represented history’s natural endpoint.

This philosophy was incarnate in newly elected President Bill Clinton, who was one of us. He might have acted more down-home than we did, but what mattered was that he had become the leader of the free world on merit alone. He represented the new Democratic Party, one that embraced Wall Street instead of shunning it, that was committed to undoing the bad deeds Franklin D. Roosevelt had done—all things my mother and her generation believed needed to be done to keep the banks from ravaging the country. That included bailing out banks when they found themselves out over their skis and ripping up the last of the Depression-era financial regulations, such as the Glass-Steagall Act, already a dead letter....

....MUCH MORE 

15 Tips to Get Safely Home Following an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP)

Or pretty much any major grid failure.

A repost from March 2019:

News You Can Use: Imagine The Venezuela Blackout, But 10 Times Worse 

You'll be glad you read Climateer.
(of course the site will be inaccessible but your powerful memory will come to the rescue)

"Nuclear EMP attack is part of the military doctrines, plans, and exercises of Russia, China, 
North Korea, and Iran for a revolutionary new way of warfare against military forces and 
civilian critical infrastructures by cyber, sabotage, and EMP"
—from the final "Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP)", 2017 (208 page PDF)

This is how civilizations die, the fragility under the complexity is exposed and the living will envy the dead.
For more on Venezuela see Colby Smith's "A bad situation in Venezuela is getting worse" at FT Alphaville.

And from Ready Nutrition:
15 Tips to Get Safely Home Following an EMP
Let’s just say that the unthinkable becomes the real and happening.  Let’s take this article and go over it.  This will be a segment in three parts, the next ones being immediate actions taken at work and at home.  I’m hitting on traveling first, as there are so many vacationers jaunting around happily over the landscape.  All kidding aside, traffic is congested during the summer, extending traveling time on the commutes.  Let’s game the scenario, and here it is.

Here’s the scenario:
You’re cruising down the highway in your 2013 four-door sedan, having just dropped the kids off twenty minutes ago to the swim club.  Now you’re on the open highway with a heavy traffic flow…about 5 miles from the edge of town and 7 miles from work.  You’re listening to the radio, when suddenly it crackles and goes dead, along with your engine.  You look around and pumping the brakes manage to slow down and then drive off the road onto the shoulder, just feet away from the back bumper of another vehicle.
The vehicle comes to a stop, and you try the ignition again.  You look at your watch, a Casio G-Shock, to find there is no display.  You reach for your cell phone.  Nothing.  It’s dead.  There are perhaps a dozen cars around you…half to your front and half to your rear.  All of them have stopped, and most of the drivers have gotten out.  You hear the sound of an engine, and looking up, see a ’58 Ford pickup truck weaving in and out of the stalled traffic, moving toward your rear, away from town.  The book “One Second After” has just played out in real life.  The United States has been attacked by an EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) weapon.  You’re 15 miles from home, and the “S” has hit the fan.
On Friday 7/29/17, North Korea just successfully tested an ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) and experts from four different countries including the U.S. have determined that they have the capability of striking the U.S. anywhere.  That means the optimal point for an EMP strike (dead center of the continental U.S., at 300 km above ground) is not only their prime target but also attainable.

15 Tips to Get Safely Home Following an EMP
Back to our scenario.  Most will be clueless and unprepared.  Let’s do it up, down and dirty with the steps that you should take if you are “Citizen X” outlined in the scenario:
1. Have a plan already in place: That means to formulate one right now, f you haven’t already done so.

2. If there are a lot of people around, such as in the scenario, then immediately grab your gear and get out of there. What gear, you may ask?  We’ve “gamed” much of this to the point of nausea, but let’s list out those essentials:

“Go/Bug Out Bag”: This guy already needs to be packed and ready, in that vehicle that will become a 3,000-lb. paperweight. Three days’ supply of ready-to-eat food, one day’s worth of water and the means to filter more.  Compass, flashlight, knife, first aid kit, poncho, jacket/sweatshirt, extra socks, map, light sleeping bag, fire starting material, small fishing kit (hooks, line, bobber), sewing kit, MSW (Minor Surgical Wound) kit, extra cash ($20 denominations and smaller), ground pad, extra clothing (hat, OG bandana, etc.), and ammo. An EMP may be followed by radiological and nuclear consequences. Having an NBC gas mask and anti-radiation pills in your vehicle could be a lifesaver.

Weapon: Please don’t feed me “legal information,” or “I can’t do that in my state.” These are “sink or swim” rules.  If you don’t have a weapon now, you may not have one later.  If you don’t have the fortitude to take that weapon and be ready to use it when the time comes, then you probably won’t survive this or be able to help your family.  One rifle, one pistol, with ammo for each.

Grab that bag and put it on, securing your weapons. Then secure the vehicle, closing the windows and locking it up.  If nobody is around, throw it into neutral and push it off the road.  Camouflage it with branches and leaves…taking care not to cut them from the immediate area that you stash it.  Most likely it’ll be “violated,” so now is the time to take the stuff you need and get it out. If the scenario above applies, just secure the vehicle and get out of there.

3. Traveling: Do not walk on the roads. Skirt the road with about 50 meters (that’s about 150 feet) between you and the edge of the road.  Stay away from people unless you knowthem and trust them…both qualities are emboldened.

4. For metro people: If you are out in the suburbs or open road, and you must return to the city? It may be better for you and your family to arrange for a rallying point outside of the city.  If that isn’t possible, then you should exercise extreme caution.  Allow the nearest family member to secure the home and then wait for you.  Travel when it’s dark to be on the safe side.  Your visibility is cut down, and so is the visibility of those who may be hunting you.

5. Long distance to go? Forage along the way.  Refill your canteens/water bottles whenever you’re able, and take note of any freestanding water supplies or “blue” features (that’s the color of water on a military map) for use in the future.  DON’T MARK YOUR MAP!  If someone gets a hold of it, you do not want them to be able to find your home.  You must commit the route to memory and adjust your steps accordingly.

6. Dealing with the Stress of the Event: The power is not coming back on…ever…and it really has begun…the Day After Doomsday is here. Take a deep breath and concentrate on your training, your preparations.  If you don’t have any, then this piece is a wake-up call to get moving!  The best way to do it is immediately accepting what has happened without dwelling on it.  Concentrate on the tasks at hand: navigating home, scouting what is in between, and foraging for anything you need.  You have a job to do!  Reconnaissance!  We’ll go over that now.

Reconnaissance: You must see on the ground what is in between you and the happy Hallmark home you’re returning to. You should take note of any places that hold medical supplies, food, or anything you may need for yourself or your family.  You should take note of possible refuge sites to hide if you and the family hightail it out of the home instead of having a “Walton Family Homecoming.”  You must take note of water features, danger locations (cliffs or impassable terrain features), as well as dangerous individuals.  Yes, the ones who were jerks before all of this?  Wait until you see how they’ll be now, with no controls exercised over them.

7. The best advice I can give: Travel at night. This may be impossible for several reasons.  Firstly, if it’s an all-out nuke attack, there may be the problem of radiation for you, in which case you’ll have to either reach home immediately or seek shelter immediately to remain in place for several weeks.  Secondly, you may have other family members that need to be attended to and cannot wait for a long time.  The kids in the scenario are a prime example.  If it is an EMP only, there will be a “quiet period” of about 6 to 12 hours before everything breaks loose and the sequel to the movie “The Road” begins in real life.  Darkness is the best time to travel.  It hides you and helps you to cover your tracks until the morning light.... 

....MUCH MORE including:

Frequently read together:
When the Time Comes, Will You Be Ready To Rebuild Civilization?.... 

Inflation: Headline Consumer Price Index UP 0.1% In July; UP 3.4% Over The Last Twelve Months

In line with pretty much everyone's expectations. 

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, August 12:

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - JULY 2026 

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July after falling 0.4 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment. 

The index for shelter rose 0.1 percent in July, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the monthly all items increase. The index for food also increased 0.1 percent over the month, as the index for food away from home increased 0.3 percent. In contrast, the energy index declined 1.5 percent in July. 

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent after being unchanged in June. Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, airline fares, communication, education, and recreation. Conversely, the index for motor vehicle insurance was among the major indexes that decreased in July. 

The all items index rose 3.4 percent for the 12 months ending July after rising 3.5 percent for the 12 months ending June. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.5 percent over the year, following a 2.6-percent increase over the 12 months ending June. The energy index increased 14.7 percent for the 12 months ending July. The food index increased 3.0 percent over the last year. 

Food
The food index rose 0.1 percent in July, after rising 0.2 percent in June. The index for food at home decreased 0.1 percent over the month. Three of the six major grocery store food group indexes decreased in July. The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index decreased 0.7 percent over the month as the pork index declined 1.5 percent. The index for fruits and vegetables decreased 0.1 percent in July as the index for lettuce fell 16.4 percent. The dairy and related products index decreased 0.1 percent over the month. The index for other food at home was unchanged in July. 

In contrast, the nonalcoholic beverages index rose 0.9 percent in July after falling 1.5 percent in June. The index for cereals and bakery products increased 0.2 percent over the month.

The food away from home index rose 0.3 percent in July. The index for limited service meals rose 0.4 percent, and the index for full service meals rose 0.2 percent over the month. The index for food at home rose 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending in July. The fruits and vegetables index rose 5.1 percent over the last 12 months. The index for other food at home increased 2.5 percent, and the index for nonalcoholic beverages rose 4.1 percent over the year. 

The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index increased 1.9 percent over the 12 months ending in July, and the cereals and bakery products index rose 2.7 percent over the same period. In contrast, the index for dairy and related products fell 0.5 percent over the year.  

The food away from home index rose 3.4 percent over the last year. The index for full service meals rose 3.4 percent, and the index for limited service meals rose 3.3 percent over the 12 months ending in July. 

Energy... 

....MUCH MORE, including the always interesting "Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category".

Capital Markets: "US Dollar is Mixed Ahead of July CPI"

 From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

The US dollar is mixed.  It is mostly softer against the G10 currencies, though sterling, the Australian dollar, and Japanese yen are slightly firmer.  The greenback is a bit weaker against most of the emerging market currencies. Of note, the PBOC set the dollar’s reference rate at a new 3.5-year low, and the Mexican peso is at its best level since the Mexican election in the middle of 2024. The market did bid the dollar to a new post-intervention high against the yen (~JPY159.45) in the local session today. 

President Trump claimed that the US has “total control over the Hormuz Strait”, but both sides appear to be hardening positions. Qatar and Pakistan have been mediating, but the oil prices remain near the highs for the month, suggesting the market remains skeptical.  The data highlight today is the US July CPI, where the headline and core rates are expected to slip slightly. The futures market is discounting slightly less than a 50% chance of a hike next month ahead of the report....

....MUCH MORE 

Tuesday, August 11, 2026

"When America’s budget will break, disastrously"

From the Washington Post, August 10:

The budget of the federal government is the largest of any organization in human history. It’s larger than the entire economy of every foreign country except China. And it mostly grows automatically, without regular input from elected officials.

In the past, huge surges in the national debt were largely caused by wars or recessions. They were temporary. When the war concluded or economic growth resumed, debt as a share of the economy would fall.

That’s not how it works anymore. The debt increases due to demographic trends as the bulk of spending goes to programs that serve an aging population. The budget deficit as a share of the economy in 2025, during a peacetime expansion, was larger than any year of the 1930s, the decade of the Great Depression.

Around 2030, the United States is projected to surpass three milestones that illustrate the lack of precedent for the government’s fiscal predicament.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, 2030 is the year when federal debt held by the public as a share of the economy will exceed the record set by World War II. Unlike in the ’40s, this debt shows no signs of ever declining....

....MUCH MORE 

During the run-up to the 2024 Presidential election we thought the bondpocalypse was closer in time than 2030:

March 6, 2024 
"Michelle Obama's office says the former first lady 'will not be running for president' in 2024"

That statement seems carefully worded, it's obvious she's not running. And it is not exactly General Sherman's "I will not accept if nominated and will not serve if elected."

It's also not another Sherman quote (my fave) regarding his friend and superior officer General Grant: 
"Grant stood by me when I was crazy, and I stood by him when he was drunk, and now we stand by each other."
but then again the former First Lady probably wouldn't say something like that regarding President Biden.

I wonder though if she would accept her party's nomination at the convention in Chicago.
President Biden would have a whole bunch of delegates he could release if he were to retire from the field. 

On the other hand, I'm not sure you would want to be President during the next four years, there are so many problems that have been growing and metastasizing just beneath the surface of the daily news that the person in the hot seat could end up just plain reviled....

A couple weeks later in "Hotshot Wharton professor sees $34 trillion debt triggering 2025 meltdown as mortgage rates spike above 7%: ‘It could derail the next administration’"  we took the idea a bit further:

This is the sort of stuff I was thinking about in the intro to March 6's "Michelle Obama's office says the former first lady 'will not be running for president' in 2024":

...On the other hand, I'm not sure you would want to be President during the next four years, there are so many problems that have been growing and metastasizing just beneath the surface of the daily news that the person in the hot seat could end up just plain reviled.

If I were a Democrat strategist I would propose letting Donald Trump win a second term while concentrating on House and especially Senate (to bottle up judicial, including Supreme Court, nominees) races.

A Trump win would give an excuse for riots (for the visuals) and if he is handcuffed by the Legislative branch to limit the range of possible responses, you go beyond polycrisis to the omnicrisis. Throw in a bit of Frances Fox Piven with her "overwhelm the system" and "motor voter" strategies and you could see one-party rule for thirty years.

There are probably a dozen ways things could come to a head, Joe steps down, Kamala is elevated, appoints Gavin or Michelle as Veep, steps down herself etc.

After Nixon resigned the country ended up with Gerald Ford and Nelson Rockefeller in the top two spots, with neither of them having run for their respective position. So all sorts of possibilities.

Stay tuned!

Italy's Parmesan Banks Are Facing Meltdown

 Fondue?*

From Fortune Magazine, August 10:

Italy’s $4.7 billion cheese economy is feeling the heat as climate change threatens its cheese banks that hold Parmigiano wheels as loan collateral 

In the hills of Emilia-Romagna, a bank vault holds more than half a million wheels of Parmigiano Reggiano, worth well over 300 million euros. 

The vault belongs to the bank Credito Emiliano, known colloquially as Credem, which has long accepted young wheels of Parmigiano Reggiano as collateral for loans to local dairy farms since 1953.

But now, extreme heat is threatening Italy’s “cheese banks,” and economists who study heat’s effect on growth say the exposure runs well beyond a single vault but into the country’s vineyards, its olive groves, and its broader economy.

A blockchain-backed cheese loan collateral program 
After receiving the wheels of cheese from dairy farmers, a Credem subsidiary, Magazzini Generali delle Tagliate, ages the wheels in two warehouses in Reggio Emilia and Modena. Producers typically receive 60% to 80% of a wheel’s value upfront.

But the process has come a long way from the 1950s, as blockchain technology now lets farmers pledge wheels even while the cheese stays in their own facilities, doubling Credem’s lending capacity. The arrangement solves a real problem: Parmigiano needs at least 12 months to age, often 24 or 36, and small family farms can’t easily keep that much inventory tied up for that long without generating some cash. So the bank provides some before any sales are made.

The scale of that arrangement is bigger than the vault itself. Italy produces about 4 million wheels of Parmigiano Reggiano a year, and the cheese banks hold about 500,000 of them, Giancarlo Ravanetti, who runs the bank’s cheese warehouse business, told CNN. His warehouses handle about 2.3 million wheels a year in total.

Meanwhile, Parmigiano Reggiano is a 4 billion-euro ($4.7 billion) industry sustained by roughly 300 certified dairies, and keeping that much cheese at the right temperature has gotten more expensive. Thanks to this year’s record heat waves in Europe, daily energy consumption rose about 30%, forcing the bank to upgrade cooling systems and boilers, add insulation, and expand renewable power generation.

Climate change is affecting dairy farmers’ milk supply as well. Because it’s so hot outside, cows lie down more and eat less, reducing milk production by up to 10% a year. As longer and more intense heat events become all the more common, they hit both the quantity and quality of milk, ultimately driving up costs.

Climate change hits the vineyard 
The same climate pressure is showing up on a similar timeline in Italy’s vineyards. In Lombardy’s Franciacorta sparkling-wine region, the 2026 harvest began July 30, the earliest start on record, after budbreak came more than a week ahead of the historical average. In Sicily, the harvest has stretched into what growers describe as a hundred-day picking season across the island’s microclimates, as producers time each variety’s picking to stay ahead of the heat.

Coldiretti, Italy’s largest farmers’ association, has called 2026 one of the earliest harvests on record nationally, citing record temperatures and drought that are pushing sugar into the grapes faster than their flavor can develop, a mismatch that’s especially hard on late-ripening reds like the Nebbiolo grape behind Barolo....

....MUCH MORE
*
Speaking of melted cheese, from May 2010's "CME Group expands dairy complex with cheese futures": 

....Years ago I heard of a Chicago company that made a whey-based artificial cheese.
Apparently the operation was headed by a mad scientist type who had come up with the formula but had no marketing ability.

He was producing the stuff and not selling any, converting all the investors' cash into this "analog" goop and storing it in Chicago area warehouses.

Then the Chernobyl reactor blew, the price of whey skyrocketed, I've no idea what the connection was, the company went broke and the receivers opened the warehouses to find tons of this 'cheeze', semi-molten in the summer heat.

That's what I thought of when I saw this story, tons of the stuff oozing out of bonded warehouses. No connection of course, just a visual.

From FuturesMag... 
Previously on the good stuff:

"Private Equity Is Stuck With 33,575 Unsold Businesses"

In the past the PE shops have sold their investee companies to other PE shops or even between their own sponsored funds. Marking the valuation higher with each flip and using the higher mark for additional dividend recaps. Maybe they should do that again.

From the New York Times, August 10:

The long-awaited deal-making boom has finally arrived. SpaceX set a record for the world’s largest initial public offering. David Ellison is pursuing a $110 billion deal linking Paramount with Warner Bros. The utility firm NextEra Energy has struck a deal to buy Dominion Energy that values it at more than $120 billion.

But private equity — a deal-making machine for decades — is largely sitting on the sidelines. For the third consecutive year, private equity firms are saddled with a rapidly increasing number of companies that they cannot sell or take public at the returns their investors expect.

As of June 30, private equity firms had 33,575 unsold companies in their portfolios, according to PitchBook, an industry data firm. That’s up from 32,451 companies at the end of last year and 15,923 companies a decade ago.

The growing backlog is a challenge for private equity’s core business model. Typically, such firms aim to buy a company, often add large amounts of debt to its balance sheet, improve its financial performance and then sell it for a profit, usually within five to seven years.

The state of limbo has been difficult for large investors like pension funds and endowments that have spent decades paying steep fees to private equity firms promising market-beating returns. Some investors and industry professionals are worried that the firms won’t be able to sell companies without taking big losses.

“Private equity is stuck because those companies have failed to fulfill their value promise,” said Andrew Milgram, a managing partner and chief investment officer at Marblegate Asset Management, an investment firm.

As the backlog grows, private equity firms continue to underperform the broader stock market. From July 1, 2022 to March 31, 2026, U.S. private equity firms generated annualized returns of 6.4 percent, according to the most recent data from MSCI, an index firm. That’s far below the 15.2 percent annualized returns of the S&P 500 and the 19.3 percent of the Nasdaq during the same time period.

There are several reasons for the logjam. Higher interest rates have made it difficult for private equity firms to find buyers that rely on cheap debt to finance acquisitions.

Another challenge is the weakness in the software sector, where there is a heavy concentration of private equity-owned companies. The value of many software firms has declined, as investors worry that artificial intelligence will cut into future earnings.

Historically, many private equity-owned companies have been sold to other private equity firms. But that important source of demand has also largely dried up.

When the Federal Reserve held interest rates low and debt was cheap, it was relatively easy for a private equity firm to write small checks and borrow heavily to purchase a company. But since the Fed began raising interest rates in 2022, private equity firms have needed more cash to pay down debt at the higher rates. That means the firms are not willing to spend as much to purchase companies, which drives down their valuations.

Last week, the investment behemoth Apollo Global Management reported weak quarterly results in its private equity division. The firm specifically pointed to a tricky market for company sales and I.P.O.s as a reason for its lower performance returns in that part of the business, saying exits were being “prudently delayed.”

“Buyers and sellers still have too big of a valuation gap,” said John Maldonado, managing partner at Advent International, a private equity firm.

The delays are becoming the new normal. For years now, private equity firms and their bankers have promised a rebound in either selling the businesses they own or taking them public. Such an outcome has proved elusive.

Elizabeth Cooper, global head of private equity at the law firm Simpson Thacher & Bartlett, said that going into this year, she had “a whole stable of companies” she had thought would be sold in the early part of the year. They’re still waiting.

“Everything basically got reset,” Ms. Cooper said, pointing to continued high interest rates and volatility in the stock market and politics.

Some private equity executives say the backlog may not end up being a big problem, because some companies that have taken longer to sell could ultimately generate large returns.

Still, the private equity struggles contrast sharply with the investments that venture firms — another giant source of money in private companies — have made in A.I. pioneers like OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX, which are generating seemingly once-in-a-lifetime returns.

The first half of 2026 was the second highest-volume period for initial public offerings in more than a decade.

But for many private equity firms, I.P.O.s have not been a viable path to selling their businesses.

Since 2022, only 70 private equity-backed companies have gone public on U.S. exchanges, according to the data firm Dealogic. From 2017 to 2021, 424 private equity-backed companies did so.

Software companies are some of the most troubled parts of the pipeline....

....MUCH MORE 

"Hoover Dam Is Losing Power. Inside the ‘Slowest-Moving Train Wreck in History’"

From Popular Mechanics, August 10:

The Colorado River is approaching thresholds its dams were never meant to cross. What happens next could transform how water and electricity move across the American Southwest.

FROM THE RIM of Lake Powell, you can’t see the danger line. There isn’t a flashing gauge or a chart on the canyon wall that warns visitors when one of the most important machines in America begins to fail. There’s only an invisible number: 3,490 feet above sea level.

Engineers call it “minimum power pool.” Above that elevation, Lake Powell can still push water through Glen Canyon Dam’s massive penstocks, spin its turbines, and send electricity across the Southwest with no trouble. Below it, the dam loses the function that helped justify its existence. The river still wants to move, but the machine starts running out of ways to move it.

Glen Canyon Dam and Lake Powell sit near the center of the Colorado River system, upstream from Hoover Dam and Lake Mead. Together those reservoirs store the water that cities, farms, and power plants across the Southwest depend on. Now the entire system is being pushed past its limits, and Lake Powell is where the cracks are really starting to show.

Since 2000, the Southwest has been caught in a megadrought that has steadily pulled down water levels in both Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Climate change has made that trend hotter, drier, and harder to reverse. In 2026, a punishingly weak snowpack and an extreme heat wave pushed the basin deeper into emergency. The Bureau of Reclamation began taking steps to keep Lake Powell’s water levels high enough for electricity generation; Hoover Dam’s hydropower output is expected to drop by 40 percent of its maximum capacity this year....

....MUCH MORE 

As noted exiting 2018's "Unraveling the mysteries of megadrought"": 

 Droughts which are common can become megadroughts which are not and when it happens it is a pretty big deal.
So we try to stay attuned to the signs and  have posted quite a bit on the downside of dry.
Previously:
Some of the papers that we've looked at over the years:
Temperature and Precipitation Patterns Associated with the 1950s Drought in the U.S. Southwest
AMO, PDO AND SEVERE DROUGHTS IN THE CONTERMINOUS US: A SOUTHWESTERN PERSPECTIVE
Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States

See also:
"U.S. Private Weather Agencies Predict WEAK El Niño in 2014"
Trading the California Drought: Almonds and Water
Projected Price Increases For Foods Affected By the California Drought
California Drought: Why Farmers Are 'Exporting Water' to China  
El Nino Won't Come Quick Enough To Break the California Drought
U.S. Drought Monitor August 14, 2012 (and a look at megadroughts)
Ocean changes may trigger US megadrought 

From our 2008 post "A Black Swan in Food":

...Donald Coxe, chief strategist of Harris Investment Management and one of my favorite analysts, spoke at my recent Strategic Investment Conference. He shared a statistic that has given me pause for concern as I watch food prices shoot up all over the world.

North America has experienced great weather for the last 18 consecutive years, which, combined with other improvements in agriculture, has resulted in abundant crops. According to Don, you have to go back 800 years to find a period of such favorable weather for so long a time.  
Well we are now at 26 years of near perfect weather for row crops.
Finally, from March 2015:

"The Economics of the California Water Shortage

Where this gets really interesting is when you throw a historical perspective on the current California drought:

https://www.mercurynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/20140127_031535_ssjm0126megadry90.jpg?w=1860

—San Jose Mercury-News "California drought: Past dry periods have lasted more than 200 years, scientists say"


That little red blip at the far right side of the timeline is the current drought.
You could make a reasonable argument that for the last 150 years Californians have been living in a fool's paradise.

Monday, August 10, 2026

"Nvidia lines up $500 billion in financing as CEO Jensen Huang tells CNBC his chips are ‘investable asset’" (NVDA)

That's getting to be real money.

From CNBC, August 10: 

  • Nvidia signed memorandums of understanding with Apollo Global Management, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield Asset Management, Goldman Sachs and KKR to establish financing platforms for Nvidia’s customers
  • The effort aims to mobilize more than $500 billion in third-party capital for hyperscalers, frontier AI labs and enterprises to build out data centers and acquire Nvidia hardware.
  • Executives from the seven companies joined CNBC’s Becky Quick in a rare, live joint interview to discuss the announcement.

Nvidia is attempting to turn its artificial intelligence chips into Wall Street’s newest asset class, partnering with six large asset managers on a $500 billion financing push designed to treat compute infrastructure much like commercial real estate, toll roads or other assets to borrow against.

The chipmaker signed memorandums of understanding with Apollo Global Management, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield Asset Management, Goldman Sachs and KKR to establish financing platforms for Nvidia’s customers, the company said Monday in a statement.

Executives from the seven companies joined CNBC’s Becky Quick in a rare, live joint interview to discuss the announcement.

The effort aims to mobilize more than $500 billion in third-party capital for hyperscalers, frontier AI labs and enterprises to build out data centers and acquire Nvidia hardware, marking a potentially important shift in how AI infrastructure is funded. By using institutional credit, insurance funds and private capital to underwrite GPUs and data centers, Nvidia is helping its end users secure financing without tapping their own balance sheets.

“This is really the first time that technology chips have become an investable asset class,” Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC. “These are revenue-generating assets now. They’re productive, they’re long-lived, they’re fungible, they’re flexible.”

Huang argued that because Nvidia’s hardware is broadly adopted and transferable across customers, lenders can reliably underwrite compute as a revenue-generating asset with an extended life.

Historically, GPUs have been viewed as rapidly depreciating hardware. Nvidia’s effort challenges that assumption, transforming AI compute capacity into long-term, bankable infrastructure, though skeptics may question whether AI chips can retain their value as newer generations emerge....

....MUCH MORE 

"China faces new AI bottleneck as it runs out of Chinese-language training data"

As Grandmother used to say, if it's not one tham ding it's another.

From The South China Morning Post, August 8:

The global supply of high-quality, publicly available human-generated text could be fully exhausted within the next six years 

China’s high-stakes race to build next-generation artificial intelligence models is entering a critical new phase, where a less visible yet far more existential threat is coming into view: a severe shortage of high-quality training data.

While the US chokehold on advanced computing chips has dominated headlines, Chinese AI experts increasingly warn that running out of quality data could prove to be the next major bottleneck to the nation’s tech ambitions – and one that hardware workarounds cannot easily solve.

It is a challenge confronting AI giants on both sides of the Pacific – and some US companies are already resorting to aggressive measures to stay ahead.

The global supply of high-quality, publicly available human-generated text could be fully exhausted within the next six years, according to US-based research institute Epoch AI.

OpenAI co-founder Andrej Karpathy has also warned of a looming “data wall” by the end of this decade, beyond which model capabilities could hit a plateau unless they were fed fresh, reliable information.

Top American labs are spending lavishly to mine offline human knowledge, igniting a fierce ethical debate in the process.

Under an internal initiative code-named Project Panama, Amazon.com-backed Anthropic spent tens of millions of dollars acquiring millions of physical books, severing their bindings and scanning every page into digital form before discarding the originals, according to court filings reported by The Washington Post in January.

The disclosures drew fierce condemnation from authors, archivists and preservationists who accused tech firms of treating human heritage as disposable raw material. “None of our data-acquisition programmes buy and destroy ‘rare’ or ‘antiquarian’ books,” an Anthropic representative told fact-checking site Snopes earlier this month.

Still, the controversy highlighted how desperate frontier AI developers have become to secure vast volumes of human-written text as online web data runs dry.

For China, however, the impending data wall poses a unique threat.

While English accounts for nearly half of all content on the global web as of this month, Chinese represents a mere 1.3 per cent, according to internet tracker W3Techs, placing it far behind languages like Spanish at 6 per cent, German at 5.9 per cent and Japanese at 5 per cent.

In response, Beijing is moving aggressively to treat data as a core strategic asset. In June, the National Data Administration unveiled a sweeping nationwide plan to boost the supply, circulation and commercialisation of high-quality AI training data....

....MUCH MORE 

Also at the SCMP:

Don’t you dare come between Chinese women and our virtual boyfriends 

Probably not helpful re: the birth dearth but, as always, the heart wants what the heart wants.

If interested in more on the book destroyers we have on offer July 29's "AI companies are reportedly shredding millions of books after using them to train AI models — tech giants outsource to middlemen to secretly buy up books for training material" 

"Goldman Sachs sees share buybacks outweighing equity supply in 2026"

Companies buying their own stock was illegal until 1982 when the SEC adopted Rule 10b-18 which created a safe harbor exemption to the anti-market-manipulation rules of the Securities Exchange Act.*

From Investing.com, August 10

Goldman Sachs expects corporate demand for U.S. equities to outweigh supply this year, even as follow-on equity issuance climbs to its highest level at this point of the calendar year since 2021. 

“Follow-on equity issuance is increasing but represents a return to normal rather than a boom,” the bank’s strategists led by Ben Snider said in a note. 

U.S. corporates have raised $105 billion via follow-on offerings year-to-date through July, while total equity issuance—including IPOs, follow-ons, converts and SPACs—hit a record $252 billion in the second quarter, surpassing the previous high of $234 billion set in the first quarter of 2021, Goldman noted. 

Still, strategists said that both the number of offerings and issuance relative to equity market capitalization remain below long-term averages, with activity concentrated in a handful of large deals.

Financing needs for AI investment are a key driver behind the increase. AI-related issuance has accounted for roughly 40% of U.S. equity follow-on volume this year, and Goldman’s strategists said this trend "will continue to increase going forward." 

Consensus estimates imply hyperscaler capital expenditures of $1.1 trillion will exceed operating cash flow by $150 billion in 2027, before turning free-cash-flow positive in 2028. “While recent earnings reports signal upside risk to estimates for hyperscaler revenues, many investors believe capex will register well above consensus forecasts,” the strategists wrote. 

*We've looked at Rule 10b-18 a few times but first one of the foundational truths of human creations, March 2024:

"The Purpose Of A System Is What It Does..."

From Forbes Magazine, September 13, 2021:

The Purpose Of A System Is What It Does, Not What It Claims To D

Stafford Beer, British theorist, consultant, and professor at the Manchester Business School, coined and frequently used the phrase “The purpose of a system is what it does” (POSIWID) to explain that the observed purpose of a system is often at odds with the intentions of those who design, operate, and promote it. For example, applying POSIWID, one might ask if the purpose of an education system is to help children grow into well-rounded individuals, or is it to train them to pass tests? “There is after all,” Beer observed, “no point in claiming that the purpose of a system is to do what it constantly fails to do.”

POSIWID stands above judgement and partisan opinion when considering any system - all one has to do is take note of its actions and outputs. And when those actions and outputs don’t align with what the system claims as its purpose, it jeopardizes the trust, confidence, and loyalty of those who work inside the system and those whom the system purports to serve....

....MUCH MORE

Using this heuristic to look at systems like education or government helps focus on the fact that in a system, as opposed, possibly, to a one-off event, the result is the reality to focus upon. 

Reality is not the intentions of the systems designers and the systems implementers and reality is surely not the protestations or explanations, excuses or justifications that surround most human endeavors.

The end result of a system, is what the system is meant to do. For the rest it is hard to put it better than:

"Ils ne se servent de la pensée que pour autoriser leurs injustices,
et emploient les paroles que pour déguiser leurs pensées"
François-Marie Arouet--'Voltaire', Dialogue xiv. Le Chapon et la Poularde (1766).

"Men use thought only to justify their wrong doings, and employ speech only to conceal their thoughts"

And on what 10b-18 actually does:

December 31, 2022 - "Share Buybacks and the Contradictions of 'Shareholder Capitalism'” (it's a racket)

I've mentioned SEC Rule 10b-18 a few times, some links after the jump. A lifetime of looking at this stuff has led me to the conclusion that in the U.S. stock buybacks are nothing more than a tax-avoidance scam with the added benefit of rewarding managers for things they didn't do by, well, managing the company rather than the stock price....
(there's an icebreaker for tonight's festivities: "Say, what's your take on SEC Rule 10b-18?")


February 2023 - "Why Biden’s 4% buyback tax could boost stock prices and dividends"

As we've said over the years, stock buybacks are nothing more than a tax dodge, magically turning cash flows that would otherwise be taxed at ordinary income rates as dividends into higher stock prices due to monotonic and incessant buying pressure from corporations, which cap gains are taxed at much-lower capital gains rates.

The buybacks have an added bonus, at least from management's perspective, of dramatically increasing the value of shares based compensation by using corporate assets—the cash flows that otherwise would be distributed as dividends— to boost a company's stock price, as opposed to the whims of an actual market.

The flaw has two parts, 1) The November 17, 1982 SEC ruling on Rule 10b-18 which opened the floodgates of kleptocratic value extraction of American businesses by giving corporations a safe harbor against charges of stock manipulation when buying their own shares and 2) The smart kids, members of Phi Scamma Jamma, are still pitching a differential between tax on earned income and tax on capital gains even though the efficacy of capital gains tax breaks in performing their original purposes, investment and job creation, has been declining since the 1970's and is now just an excuse for a loophole. See "TAXES, CAPITAL AND JOBS" for an exceptionally lucid discussion, again, if interested.

The new law, and the Administration's proposed increase, are a fig leaf slapped over the naughty bits, designed to give the appearance of doing something while having no discernible real-world effect on behavior....

"The Real Reason Stock Buybacks Are a Problem"
This argument is a corollary of the fact that the preferential taxation of capital does not seem to deliver on the policy goals with which it is rationalized.
More on that after the jump.
(I'm going to get kicked out of the club aren't I?)

Related, the post where I first used the 10b-18 intro: Taibbi: "The S.E.C. Rule That Destroyed The Universe"

And just to refresh memories:

...II. Overview of Current Rule 10b-18
A. Rule 10b-18 as a "Safe Harbor"
In 1982, the Commission adopted Rule 10b-18,4 which provides that an issuer will not be deemed to have violated Sections 9(a)(2) and 10(b) of the Exchange Act, and Rule 10b-5 under the Exchange Act, solely by reason of the manner, timing, price, or volume of its repurchases, if the issuer repurchases its common stock in the market in accordance with the safe harbor conditions.5 Rule 10b-18's safe harbor conditions are designed to minimize the market impact of the issuer's repurchases, thereby allowing the market to establish a security's price based on independent market forces without undue influence by the issuer....

For many, many years corporations have been the marginal buyer, meaning their actions are what sets stock prices, which is directly at odds with the original intent of the rule change.

From the SEC, December 10, 2002, comments on the proposed amendment to 10b-18 which was adopted in 2003.

Proposed Rule
Rule 10b-18 and Purchases of Certain Equity Securities by the Issuer and Others
  

....At the same time, an issuer has a strong interest in the market performance of its securities. Among other things, its securities may be the consideration in an acquisition, or serve as collateral for financing. The market price also determines the price of offerings of additional securities. Therefore, at various times, the issuer may have an incentive to manipulate the price of its securities. One way to positively affect the price is to purchase the securities in the open market. Because repurchases of its securities could affect the market price of an issuer's stock, this may expose the issuer to claims that the repurchases were made in a manipulative manner even when they were done in a manner not intended to move market prices.

Rule 10b-18 addresses this problem. In 1982, the Commission adopted Rule 10b-18,2 which provides issuers3 with a safe harbor from liability for manipulation under Sections 9(a)(2) and 10(b) of the Exchange Act, and Rule 10b-5 under the Exchange Act, when they repurchase their common stock in the market in accordance with the rule's manner, timing, price, and volume conditions.4 Rule 10b-18's safe harbor conditions are designed to minimize the market impact of the issuer's repurchases, thereby allowing the market to establish a security's price based on independent market forces without undue influence by the issuer.5

CBR: "How Worried Should We Be About AI Debt?"

See, here's the thing, AI is effectively a last chance effort to revive developed-nation economies and stave off stasis/entropy/death. It's a gamble. And the best shot we have.

But if we fail, then the whole world, including the United States, including all that we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights of perverted science.

Oops, sorry, I don't know why Churchill is popping in. That's the penultimate sentence of his "Their finest hour" speech. It was immediately preceded by:

Hitler knows that he will have to break us in this Island or lose the war. If we can stand up to him, all Europe may be free and the life of the world may move forward into broad, sunlit uplands. 

Which reminds me there is one other option to goose developed economies short of hyper-inflationary money-printing; the one Germany and the EU have chosen, massive investment in arms and armaments.

From the University of Chicago, Booth School of Business, Chicago Booth Review, August 7:

Investors should look past software to the financing of AI infrastructure.

For much of the past year, alarm about the credit taken on to fund the boom in artificial intelligence has centered on software—a concern I examined in June. The focus is understandable. Private-credit lending to software companies had exceeded $500 billion by the end of 2025, and fears that AI-related debt could crowd out other borrowers have pressured valuations and software-heavy business development companies alike.

This exposure is relatively visible because many private-credit vehicles disclose their portfolios. But other AI infrastructure financing, however, is much harder to observe.

The physical build-out of AI—chips, data centers, power connections, servers, and specialized compute capacity—has mostly been financed off the consolidated balance sheets of the largest technology companies via project and construction financing, equipment-backed lending, leases, asset-backed securities, and, yes, private credit.

There are even loans secured by GPUs, with the chips that run AI themselves pledged as collateral. As it works with a mortgage secured by a house, if a borrower stops paying, its lender takes the chips and sells them. But while most houses hold their value for decades, GPUs are being displaced every two or three years as faster ones are developed, and nobody yet knows what a used one is worth.

Investors commonly measure AI-related leverage by looking at the balance sheets of the largest cloud-computing companies, the five big hyperscalers: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle. For these companies, conventional leverage remains manageable, but that is only one part of the financing system. An institution may hold technology equities, infrastructure funds, private-credit vehicles, securities issued by insurers, and real estate debt, and regard those exposures as diversified. Legally, they are separate investments, but economically, they may share risks related to future AI demand.

In a working paper, I mapped this financing system and performed a stress-test on it. The question I had is how much financing depends on the same underlying cash flows—and where the associated risk ultimately resides.

The results of this test suggest that today’s situation is not a rerun of the 2008–09 financial crisis: First-loss positions sit mostly outside the regulated banking system. But losses could still reach $140 billion and could grow as AI-infrastructure credit expands.

Are the hyperscalers overextended? 
Through 2024, the largest technology companies financed most of their aggregate capital spending from operating cash flow. That has changed. The big hyperscalers undertook approximately $380 billion of capital spending in 2025 and are expected to spend roughly double that this year, putting capital spending on course to overtake operating cash flow.

Debt issuance has risen in step. The hyperscalers issued approximately $120 billion of corporate bonds last year, compared to an average of about $28 billion annually between 2020 and 2024. Issuance in the first half of 2026 has already exceeded the 2025 amount.

Let’s be clear: The hyperscalers aren’t in financial difficulty. But the marginal financing of AI infrastructure has begun to extend well beyond their own balance sheets.

A hyperscaler may lease a data center from a developer that has financed the property, construction, and equipment separately, borrowing from a range of private-credit funds, insurers, pension funds, and retail-oriented vehicles.

Commitments also extend beyond funded debt: S&P Global Ratings, the credit rating agency, has identified about $675 billion of signed but not yet commenced lease obligations across the hyperscalers—an amount that’s excluded from the funded-debt totals in my analysis but that demonstrates why reported corporate debt is an incomplete measure.

Where the financing sits....

....MUCH MORE 

Also at the CBR, July 13:

How AI Is Helping to Explain Stock-Price Moves  

News You Can Use: "Taxi drivers rarely die of Alzheimer’s"

News you can use for a few more years at any rate. 

From The Conversation, August 6:

Taxi drivers rarely die of Alzheimer’s – how complex mental maps and spatial reasoning protect your brain 

Taxi and ambulance drivers are less likely than workers in almost any other job to die of Alzheimer’s disease. That was the surprising result of a 2024 study examining the death certificates of nearly 9 million people in the U.S.

These findings stopped me in my tracks because those two jobs rely on the same thing as my own work: maps.

I have spent more than two decades staring at maps. Not paper maps on a wall, but digital ones with multiple layers: flood boundaries draped over census blocks, car crash hot spots plotted against road geometry, and satellite readings of rainfall stitched across river basins. Much of my work as a civil and environmental engineer is done through GIS – that is, geographic information systems. Engineers like me hold several spatial relationships in their minds at once, reasoning about where things sit relative to one another across scales ranging from a city block to a whole watershed.

I always assumed that spatial reasoning across map layers was purely professional. But that study on taxi and ambulance drivers made me wonder whether all that mental work might be doing something good to the brain.

Taxi driver brains 
Of the 9 million death certificates from January 2020 to December 2022 that researchers examined, taxi and ambulance drivers had the lowest risk of dying from Alzheimer’s disease out of 443 occupations. After adjusting for age, sex, race, ethnicity and education, roughly 1 in 100 taxi and ambulance drivers died of Alzheimer’s, compared with 1 in 60 people overall.

This pattern did not extend to other driving jobs. The researchers concluded that the key to reducing the risk of Alzheimer’s was not driving itself but continuous real-time navigation: the constant work of locating yourself in space, tracking a destination and updating a mental map as conditions change. Drivers whose jobs relied on fixed or predetermined routes, like bus drivers and aircraft pilots, didn’t seem to experience a similar advantage....

....MUCH MORE 

No mention of GPS, curious. 

However! From Bloomberg's CityLab, July 31:

A London Taxi Family Confronts the Driverless Future 

With more than a century of combined experience behind the wheel, the Gouldings now face their greatest challenge yet: Waymo, Wayve and Baidu. 

I wasn’t sure at first whether the taxi driver who arrived for my usual predawn work pickup had also driven me a few days before. The name was different, but Ron looked curiously similar to my driver from last week.

Time and light banter eventually cleared things up. I hadn’t been hallucinating before my caffeine hit — my two recent drivers were identical twins. More interesting still, the twins were the sons of a taxi driver whose own mother kept cabbies fueled with tea, coffee and sandwiches from one of London’s traditional Cabmen’s Shelters. Two other brothers had also followed their father into the trade. Together, they form a remarkable London taxi family.

The black cab business has been good to the Gouldings. It hasn’t made them rich, but it provides a very comfortable living — without a boss to answer to. This proud clan’s heart is David, 70, the family patriarch, who took up the trade 42 years ago to support his young family. With his twin sons Ron and Billy, 44, following in their father’s footsteps — and their younger brothers, David, 40, and Harry, 38, close behind — the Goulding tradition spans more than a century of combined experience behind the wheel.

Like many long-standing traditions, the world in which they operate — London’s taxi trade — keeps confronting new threats. The centuries-old industry has survived wars, the onslaught of Uber, and Covid. Black cabs remain one of London’s defining symbols for many, alongside Buckingham Palace, Sunday roast lunches and Paddington Bear.

But the trade faces perhaps its greatest disruption yet: competition from vehicles with no driver at all. Still in testing mode, autonomous taxis could, pending government approval, offer driverless rides to Londoners by the end of the year. Their arrival could arguably prove a greater shock in the city than elsewhere. London is, after all, home to the world’s most thoroughly trained cabbies, who spend up to four years completing “the Knowledge” — a famously rigorous memorization of the city’s street plan.

The Map in Their Minds

Introduced in 1865, the Knowledge remains one of the world’s toughest professional qualifications. Candidates master the city’s streets through intensive visualization, training so rigorous that studies have shown it can physically reshape the brain. One study even found that London cabbies outperform GPS navigation apps in some respects.

Ron would agree. While he occasionally uses navigation apps to verify obscure addresses, he says GPS often misses taxi-only routes. He recalls winning over one skeptical passenger by ignoring the satnav and taking a faster route using bus lanes which are open to licensed taxis in the UK. The passenger was so impressed that he left a tip and said, “I trust you.”....

....MUCH MORE 

Back in 2015 we were already seeing:

Uber Introduces Its Video Knock-off of "The Knowledge"

A month ago This Is Money was reporting that the number of drivers taking "The Knowledge", the notoriously difficult geographical test required to become a London black-cab driver, had dropped by two thirds as new aspirants hooked up with Uber and GPS rather than the black cabs.

Well now Uber has rolled out a video game version of The Knowledge for its San Francisco drivers, call it "Grand Theft Uber"....

Capital Markets: "Market Challenges US-Japan Resolve on Yen and Tehran Challenges US Resolve to Re-Open Strait of Hormuz"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

The most important development today is the yen’s weakness. The dollar has approached JPY158.90 in the European morning, a new high for the month. Despite a hawkish sounding record of last month’s Bank of Japan meeting, the swaps market shaved the risks of a rate hike at next month’s meeting. The market is challenging the resolve of Japanese and US officials. The greenback is more broadly narrowly mixed and the yen’s roughly 0.65% loss stands out. A record jump in Swedish industrial orders (32% month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), led by export orders for transport equipment is lifting the krona by about 0.25% to top the G10 leaders’ board. 

The Middle East is the other major story.
Iran and its allies continued to press. Tehran has demanded that US lift its naval blockade, withdraw forces, lift sanctions, release frozen assets, and pay reparations before the Strait of Hormuz will be allowed to open again. President Trump has suggested that the US may rely on the economic chokehold on Iran to pressure the regime and that the US was only “semi-negotiating” with Iran. This follows reports that the US has depleted much of its defense weapons, and the Saudi-Pakistan-Türkiye defense treaty struck last week. Oil prices are firm near four-day highs....

....MUCH MORE 

Sunday, August 9, 2026

"National Orchestration and Provincial Competition: China’s Industrial Policy for AI Dominance"

From American Affairs Journal, Volume X, Number 2, Summer 2026:

America has no peer competitor in artificial intelligence outside of China. Several years ago, when the trajectory of AI model development was uncertain enough to allow middle powers like the United Kingdom and France to nurse hopes of remaining competitive, this may have sounded like an overconfident pronouncement. Today, it is well-earned conventional wisdom. Competing at the frontier of AI requires coordinating talent, data, energy, and compute infrastructure at unprecedented scales—scales that only the United States and China are realistically capable of delivering on, although each in their own distinctive ways. Understanding China’s approach to developing and diffusing AI is thus of existential importance to understanding America’s relative position in the world to come.

America has been surprised by China’s AI prowess before. In January 2025, the release of DeepSeek was widely described as a Sputnik moment by policymakers and business commentators. While DeepSeek’s technical advances were overstated, the media’s reaction revealed the extent to which many in the United States had become complacent about China’s lag in AI capabilities.1 Against available evidence, too many American observers believed that China was incapable of discovering AI breakthroughs on its own, whether because of constraints on their access to advanced semiconductors, or the persistent myth that Chinese companies can only copy but not innovate. Even now, many still seem to believe that Chinese AI models will remain behind American models in perpetuity, offering lesser capabilities but at a fraction of the price. Yet offering a good enough product at ultra-low prices and thereby cornering the market on less exquisite technologies and manufacturing inputs is exactly how China became a peer competitor to the United States in the first place. In AI, we are thus primed to be surprised once again.

The pervasive indifference that characterizes America’s overconfident view of its place in the AI race stems from grading the Sino-American AI race against our own preferred rubric: frontier model benchmarks, the scale of the data center buildout, and timelines to artificial general intelligence (AGI). Rarely do we measure American performance against the categories that the Chinese themselves choose to emphasize. The party-state and various Chinese companies are clearly trying to unleash AI capabilities, and Beijing’s desire for international AI leadership is beyond dispute. But their methods and benchmarks of success are different from ours, evincing a fundamentally distinct understanding of the nature of the competition.

American readers inclined to dismiss China’s focus on open source AI diffusion and applications as a case of settling for less than the frontier should consider an alternative interpretation: that the Chinese state has made a sincere and potentially well-founded judgment about where the benefits from AI development will accrue in the medium- to long-term horizon, and its leaders are organizing the many arms of the state to support their industry ecosystem accordingly. The primary questions explored by this essay are (1) how that AI-focused industrial policy is orchestrated, and (2) what the subnational dynamics between China’s provinces, municipalities, and central government reveal about their model of AI development, for which America has no equivalent.

China’s AI Division of Labor

Before describing Chinese industrial policy for AI, it is necessary to explain two paradigmatic differences in the ways that the Chinese and American governments perceive AI development and diffusion, as well as how those different perspectives influence tangible policy outcomes.

The first is the difference between how the two countries approach hardware versus software. The United States has myriad regulatory barriers to physical infrastructure buildouts that coexist with an engrained hesitation to regulate algorithms and models. China is almost the inverse. The PRC actively regulates the algorithmic layer of AI, requiring registries of proprietary data and, in some cases, imposing “ethical committees” to oversee algorithmic usage.2 At the same time, the Chinese state aggressively organizes and subsidizes physical infrastructure and deployment: data centers, compute vouchers, industry funds, procurement mandates, start-up incubators, and more.

In contrast, the U.S. federal government maintains a relatively light-touch approach to software but is mired by legal and regulatory constraints on physical infrastructure, including power generation, transmission lines, data centers, heavy industries, and until recently, chip fabrication. It is too simple to frame this as American lawyers litigating the physical buildout of AI while skilled Chinese engineers speed ahead at constructing power generation, transmission, and roboticized factories. Nevertheless, this asymmetry is a good starting place for understanding how the respective AI strategies of the United States and China diverge.

Second, high-level discourse in China concerning AI’s technological potential is conceptualized quite differently relative to the English-language AI community. In the United States, the AI race is widely seen as a sprint to AGI, an autonomous system capable of outperforming expert humans in virtually every domain. Developing AGI in a way that benefits humanity is the explicit mission of OpenAI, for instance, reflecting the influence of early AI safety thinkers from the Effective Altruist (EA) and rationalist communities, in particular. While AI development is proceeding along a continuous spectrum, AGI is considered a particularly momentous threshold, beyond which progress rapidly accelerates toward superintelligent systems with the potential to transform every aspect of our economy and society, while giving the first company or country to achieve AGI decisive economic and military advantages.

While the discourse in America regarding the correct path for AI development is uniform—AGI is brought into existence as an emergent property of scaling LLMs and related infrastructure—the same cannot be said for China. To be sure, some Chinese researchers and thinkers do share this perspective.3 Especially at model-developing start-ups, such as Moonshot and Zhipu, where each company’s CEO has explicitly stated that his mission is to achieve AGI through LLM scaling, there is a symmetry between the American and Chinese perspectives. Another perspective is the idea of Embodied AI (EAI), a viewpoint which has been mentioned in recent high-level national documents, such as the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan. Chinese proponents of the EAI perspective tend to believe that scaling LLMs is not the path to AGI.4 Instead, EAI advocates see integrating model development with physical applications, such as robotics and self-driving cars that have self-improving capacities from interactions with the tangible world, as the best path toward AGI.5

But in practice, as well as in policy, perhaps the most influential Chinese perspective is the one that treats AI as a general purpose technology, much like electricity. This view is best articulated in Taiwanese scientist and entrepreneur Kai-Fu Lee’s popular 2018 book AI Superpowers, where he describes AI in these terms: “Often, once a fundamental breakthrough has been achieved, the center of gravity quickly shifts from a handful of elite researchers to an army of tinkerers—engineers with just enough expertise to apply the technology to different problems.”6 In this case, the power of AI will accrue not to the most sophisticated model developers but instead to those who find novel applications for the technology. This is a view that explicitly rejects imminent AGI. Lee himself describes it as decades or centuries away, if it is feasible at all.7 It should not be assumed that the Chinese government agrees with this assessment, and there are new reasons to believe that party officials are taking the prospect of superintelligence seriously.8....

....MUCH MORE

We should have a very good idea of what's possible by the first quarter of 2028. 

If interested see August 7's ""Inside the Race to Make AI Build Itself"" for more on the timeline.