Wednesday, August 30, 2023

Ørsted, "World's Largest Offshore Wind Farm-Maker Crashes Most On Record After Catastrophic Results"

Brutal.

From/via ZeroHedge, August 30:

Shares of the world's largest offshore wind farm developer crashed in Copenhagen trading on Wednesday after it warned: "The situation in US offshore wind is severe." 

Orsted A/S was hit with a massive 16 billion Danish kroner ($2.3 billion) impairment on its US portfolio due to snarled supply chains, soaring interest rates, and easy money tax credits drying up -- a warning sign the green energy revolution bubble is in trouble. 

CEO Mads Nipper warned investors on a conference call: "The situation in US offshore wind is severe."

Shares in Denmark-listed green energy giant crashed 25%, the largest daily decline since it went public in early 2016. 

Bloomberg explained more about the headwinds plaguing Orsted: 

The company's Ocean Wind 1, Sunrise Wind, and Revolution Wind projects in the US are being hurt by supplier delays, which could lead to writedowns of up to 5 billion kroner, it said late Tuesday. High interest rates could also add another 5 billion. In addition, the developer is still in talks with federal stakeholders to qualify for additional tax credits, which haven't progressed as expected. If unsuccessful, it could lead to impairments of as much as 6 billion kroner.

Analysts at Bernstein warned clients in a note: "Today's announcement flags risks in the US portfolio and does not do anything to improve the downbeat investor sentiment on the stock." 

"While the bulls could argue many of these issues related to the impairment are already known, the announcement is unlikely to bode well for an already-weakened Orsted share price," Citigroup Inc. analyst Jenny Ping told clients. 

Analysts across the board were overwhelmingly pessimistic about the news (list courtesy of Bloomberg):

BNP Paribas Exane (cut to neutral from outperform)

  • The potential write-down of DKK16b dwarfs the DKK2.5b impairment announced in January, analyst Harry Wyburd writes in a note
  • Investor confidence will probably be "compromised" for some time

UBS (buy)

  • Sam Arie puts the focus on which targets will remain valid in this context
  • Says today's announcement is a negative and somewhat of a surprise 
  • Adds investors may be concerned in the change in tone since the June CMD where management seemed more confident in regulatory changes that would help to protect the return profile of these US projects....

....MUCH MORE

Somewhat of a surprise? Dude, you had one job. Or used to.

June 26:

....We haven't had much to say about the wind business, either manufacturers or wind farm operators since their returns dropped below those offered by regulated utilities. If the U.S. offshore wind farms ever get started and then, if they can make any money we'll be back to them  

August 3:
"There Is A Financial Crisis Brewing In Offshore Wind Energy"

Investment In ESG Appears To Be Considerably Lower Than Previously Estimated

 From VoxEU/Centre for Economic Policy Research, August 13:

Investment related to environmental, social, and governance criteria has grown in popularity, but its total amount in unclear. This column uses data on ESG characteristics and institutional equity portfolios to show that ESG-related tilt is about 6% of the investment industry’s assets under management, which is significantly less than commonly reported. ESG tilts are primarily driven by the intensive margin (weights on stocks held) rather than the extensive margin (which stocks are held). Furthermore, institutions tilt more towards green than brown assets, and this effect is driven by the largest institutions. 

Achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals and Paris climate goals will require a large amount of capital (Volz and Schoenmaker 2022). Some of this capital could potentially be provided by investors using environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria. To assess the potential of ESG investing to contribute to policy goals, it seems useful for policymakers to know how much capital is invested according to ESG principles.

ESG investing has clearly exploded in popularity, but its total amount is unclear. For example, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, global ESG assets under management (AUM) surpassed $35 trillion in 2020 (Bloomberg 2022). According to PwC (2022), global ESG assets under management amounted to $18 trillion as of 2021. Perhaps the most-cited figure is $121 trillion, which is the total assets under management of the signatories of the United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment (UN PRI) as of March 2022 (UNPRI 2022). These numbers are vastly different from each other.

Adding up the assets under management of institutions that include ESG in their stated investment policies is simple and transparent. However, it could overstate or understate the total amount of ESG-related investing. Some institutions might engage in greenwashing, while others might use ESG characteristics in their investing without declaring an ESG policy.

How much ESG investing is there, really?
In our paper (Pastor et al. 2023), we quantify ESG-related investing by estimating ESG-related portions of institutions’ equity portfolio weights. We take companies’ environmental, social, and governance characteristics from ratings provided by MSCI, a leading provider. For each institution that has filed the 13F form to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), we estimate how every stock’s ESG characteristics relate to the stock’s weight in the institution’s portfolio. Combining these estimates across stocks gives an institution-level measure of ESG-related tilt. We aggregate those tilts across institutions to estimate the total ESG-related portfolio tilt in the investment industry.

We find that the total dollar ESG-related tilt is about 6% of the investment industry’s assets under management in equity investments in 2021. By this measure, there is much less ESG investing than commonly reported. For example, the UN PRI signatories account for 76% of our sample’s assets under management. The 6% number is close to the magnitude of the aggregate ESG tilt throughout our 2012-2021 sample, as we show in Figure 1. 

Figure 1 ESG-related tilts....

....MUCH MORE

"It’s Time To Bring Back the Executive Dining Room"

We must all do our part to rebuild the downtowns.

A repost from May 2022:

Hear, hear!

First up, the problem via ZeroHedge, May 20:

CEOs Are Quitting Their Jobs At The Fastest Pace On Record

It's not just ordinary employees who are quitting their jobs at the fastest pace on record, as the latest JOLTs report showed when it revealed that in March the number of quits rose by another 152,000 to a record high of 4.5 million.

According to Challenger, CEOs are bailing at a record pace as well: in a report published on May 18, business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, found that the number of CEO changes at U.S. companies rose 3% to 123 in April from 119 in March.

 And the solution from the Harvard Business Review, September 24, 2012:

When I was at the Dial Corporation (makers of Dial soap) in the 1980s, executives working at corporate headquarters went through a now-antiquated ritual every day at 11:45. Meetings and phone calls would end and most of the directors, senior directors, various breeds of vice presidents, division presidents, and occasionally our CEO would make their way to the top floor executive dining room for lunch.

Tables were set, uniformed waiters stood at the ready, and a printed menu presented the day’s offerings. Every day that I was in the office, I’d join the same group of friends at our regular table to spend an hour or so eating a splendid company-subsidized, four-course lunch. Suppliers, customers, consultants, and subordinates weren’t welcome — there were separate, private rooms that could be reserved for meetings. The executive dining room was a place for executives to dine with one another.

Executive dining rooms have gone the way of the dodo bird and carrier pigeon, and despite the retro-popularity of Mad Men, there have been few calls for their return. Now widely viewed as elitist, the concept of a separate facility for executives to enjoy formal daily meals together is considered laughable. There are self-service facilities at today’s headquarters where all employees can get lunch to go, or those with the time available can sit and have a meal together. Most days, though, executives in most companies either go out to lunch, eat in their offices, or have lunches brought into meetings, and the day flows through without a break.

But the executive dining room at Dial served an important function. It provided a critical communications nexus for the organization, where issues were raised and resolved in a rapid, fluid, and informal way. Those lunches were a critical organizational lubricant, reducing friction and allowing the gears to turn much more smoothly.

The group at my table included executives from marketing, finance, sales, HR, and corporate development. At the adjoining tables sat executives from all the major divisions and functions except for IT and R&D, who worked in separate facilities. Someone from the senior level of every branch of the organization chart was in the room virtually every day. If anyone needed to quickly resolve a small issue before it became a large one, or find out whom to call about something, or set a time for a meeting, a minute in the dining room could often do the trick.

Conversation at our table would often start with a discussion of the previous day’s golf tournament or football game, a recently viewed movie, or a just-completed vacation. But invariably the talk turned to business. Rumors were verified, plans were shared, trial balloons were floated, and coaching was offered. When I was a newly hired executive my lunch group served as navigators, helping me understand how Dial functioned to a remarkable level of depth.

Today, open floor plans are the dominant model for new construction at corporate headquarters. Glass walls, shared conference rooms, coffee bars, spiral staircases: the 21st-century executive office is ostensibly designed for the kind of fluid, informal interaction we enjoyed in the dining room at Dial. But office seating tends to be grouped according to a single function, division, or span of control....

....MORE

This was obviously written before people stopped going to the office at all but I offer it up as a perk to keep your senior people making the commute. 

Plus, it might help avoid this kind of embarrassment from March 2020:

"Mount Sinai hospital leaders holed up in Florida vacation homes during coronavirus crisis"

"Money Is Pouring Into AI. Skeptics Say It’s a ‘Grift Shift.’"

After Nvidia's blowout numbers it appears that most, if not all of the actual profit (not market cap) has gone to NVDA. Free cash flow for the quarter was: $6,048,000,000.

From Institutional Investor, August 29:

The move from crypto to artificial intelligence has fueled the markets this year, but some are questioning how much of it is real.

By the time a dormant penny stock company known as Applied Sciences managed to wrangle a listing on the Nasdaq in April 2022, it had reinvented itself as a cloud hosting service for bitcoin miners and changed its name to Applied Blockchain. But with the crypto world crashing that spring, the stock never took off. Within months, Applied Blockchain pivoted again — renaming itself Applied Digital.

If its previous iteration had been too late to cash in on the bitcoin mining craze, the company wasn’t going to miss the next big one: artificial intelligence.

Applied Digital’s stock finally began to soar in May, when CEO Wes Cummins announced that the company had signed a cloud hosting deal potentially worth $180 million with an unnamed but prominent AI customer, and another one for up to $460 million with another big player in the booming AI space. By July, the stock had surged some 450 percent for the year, becoming — for a time, at least — one of the big winners in today’s AI-driven stock market.

Applied Digital is hardly alone in trying to capture some AI magic. Ever since ChatGPT burst onto the scene last November — with its “large language model” boasting a humanlike writing capability that at first blush seems to ensure productivity gains for everyone from publishers and movie studios to investment banks and hedge funds — so-called “generative AI” has turned the markets on their heads.

Coming off the worst year in recent history for venture capitalists, private market players like Andreessen Horowitz, Coatue Management, Tiger Global, Sequoia Capital, and Softbank quickly redirected their dollars to AI upstarts. Meanwhile, the stock prices of the big tech names suspected to be the major beneficiaries of this often-called “revolutionary” form of artificial intelligence have skyrocketed. The 2022 tech downturn became a faint memory as some five tech companies — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia — accounted for the lion’s share of the stock market’s remarkable comeback this year, with the S&P 500 rising 20 percent through July. Nvidia, maker of the superfast chips that switched from powering bitcoin mining to making generative AI possible, has gained more than 250 percent so far in 2023, making it the S&P index’s top gainer.

In the midst of this bonanza, Applied Digital’s CEO — who is also the president of B. Riley Asset Management and was at one point the owner of about 25 percent of Applied Digital’s shares — posted on Twitter (now X) in June that the company had ordered 26,000 top-tier H100 GPUs, or video processing cards, from Nvidia for $40,000 apiece. To those casting a wary eye on the company, it seemed too good to be true. A purchase that big would allow Applied Digital to “jump to the top of the pile in high-performance computing, alongside Google, Meta, and [Amazon Web Services],” short-seller Dan David said in a Wolfpack Research report that called the company “an embarrassing and predictable stock promotion.” He noted that the cost to purchase such equipment would run more than $1 billion — more than Applied Digital’s market cap of nearly $600 million.

“The explosion of interest in AI after the emergence of ChatGPT has predictably attracted the worst promoters and scumbags to peddle fake AI wares to credulous investors,” says David, who claims Applied Digital is one of them. (The company did not respond to a request for comment.)

Applied Digital is one of nearly a dozen companies that short-sellers have been eyeing this year as questionable beneficiaries of AI mania. The shorts say their antennae are on the alert for even more. But so far, the skeptics are fighting an uphill battle. Short interest is relatively high in several of these stocks, and it’s been costly to bet against them. As of August 25, Applied Digital short-sellers, for example, had placed bets on 19 percent of the outstanding shares of the company. The short-sellers in aggregate are down almost 30 percent this year on the name, having lost about $10 million, says S3 Partners — although those who shorted Applied Digital at or near its peak would have profited.

Orso Partners co-founder Nate Koppikar, who is also short Applied Digital, has a term for what he sees going on. He calls the phenomenon “the grift shift” — arguing that companies and venture capital funds have pivoted from their losing crypto and tech bets to cash in on the AI moment....

....MUCH MORE

It was ever thus. Here's a May 2008 post:

 Chameleons on the Pink Sheets
On April 22 I was rambling about Planktos and penny stock deals:

...A classic history would be a Vancouver "junior resource" company in 1979, after the collapse of the oil and gold markets became a solar deal in '81 , an Aloe Vera deal to the yuppies mid '80's, a biotech in '86 ("we're the next Amgen"or "A cure for AIDS"), then on to neutraceuticals or spas, Indian casinos, software, then the great "i", "e-" and ".com" gold rush. Someday I'll get around to checking if some lunatic scammer actually went with "e-iTrade.com".The next group of parasites were the "homeland security" companies, then land deals. 
The "resource" scams never went away and became more prominent in 2002 after gold had moved off its $252 bear market low.
We're in the Green boom (happy Earth day by the way) now, who knows what's next....
Today in EuroInvestor:
...The recently re-named Homeland Security Network, Inc. (Pink Sheets:HYSN), doing business as Global Ecology Corporation (GEC) announced today that it has received their initial order from its soil remediation project in Juarez, Mexico. The total value of the purchase orders, involving several of the partnership’s soil-based products, is $2 million with delivery to begin this June....

"$10 Trillion Stolen Right Under Our Noses"

You know the line Rahm Emanuel* appropriated** when he was Barack Obama's Chief of Staff during the Great Financial Crisis?

"You never let a serious crisis go to waste. 
And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before." 

This.

From The Brownstone Institute, August 28:

In 1983, I had an apartment on Martin Luther King Blvd. in Newark, New Jersey’s Central Ward. I looked out of place in the neighborhood. But the rent was affordable and I worked within walking distance.

Though in that “Brick City” of 325,000 there were at that time zero grocery stores, there was a bodega half a block from my steep stone stoop. I used to go there to buy milk and those tasty cellophane-wrapped FrozFruit coconut ice pops. I became friendly with the store’s owner, an amiable, diminutive, mustachioed Puerto Rican gentleman in his forties who often wore a Guayabera shirt.

When I approached the counter one summer Saturday morning, the owner seemed uncharacteristically glum. I said, “Hey, what’s up? Is something bothering you?” 

He frowned and said, “Last night, when I was closing, I put all my money for the week, $7,000, in the backseat of my car. But I couldn’t remember if I switched on my burglar alarm, so I went back inside to check. When I came back out, my cash box was gone. It took two minutes.” 

Stunned, I offered, “Maybe they’ll catch the guys and you’ll get the money back.”

He frowned at my naive optimism. (I didn’t actually believe what I had said. I was just trying to cheer him up). He replied, with dismissive resignation, “Nah, it’s like you, brother. When you’re gone, you’re gone and you ain’t coming back.” 

When one experiences theft directly—even if it’s just the contents of one’s purse or wallet—s/he feels indignation and anger and thinks that those who robbed them deserve punishment. People feel the same, strongly negative emotion when someone deceives them in a business transaction. The amount of money involved doesn’t even have to be very high. 

Over $10 trillion was foolishly spent on the Corona overreaction. Extremely out of his depth, both scientifically and economically, Trump irresponsibly sponsored $6 trillion of CARES Act giveaways. His terrible judgment during this period, and his continuing vaxx promotion, must never be forgotten. 

Biden & Company stacked $4 trillion more of debt/contrived money on top of that, plus he mandated the jabs. Neither he nor Trump should ever again hold public office. 

But most people didn’t think twice about these potlatches. They were too busy washing their hands, ordering DoorDash, buying masks and waiting in lines for 40 cycle PCR tests. To many, the government’s panicked and politically-motivated spending sprees didn’t register; they seemed unreal and diffuse. The funds were created and distributed electronically. Besides, most of us got, and many were mollified and distracted by, seemingly free money via “stimulus checks.” 

Nearly 90 percent of the $800 billion of PPP “loans” were never repaid; nor were these vast sums ever expected to be. Additionally, at least $600 billion of “Covid relief” money was stolen via fraud or embezzlement. Most of those who sneakily dipped their buckets into this Amazon-at-flood-stage river of dollars will never be caught or prosecuted. Like the Newark merchant’s cash box, the missing money won’t ever be recovered.

The giveaways continue. For example, there’s still a widely-advertised tax credit for Covid employee retention. This scheme, which was estimated, in March, 2020, to cost the US Treasury $50 billion, had, by May, 2023, already cost $152 billion. And counting. Almost no one knows this is happening; they only notice when their own taxes increase. 

All of the “Covid Relief” numbers are far too big to understand unless one has a good numbers sense and sits quietly in a room with some blank paper and does some ciphering. People thought it was a good idea to spend limitlessly and futilely on Grandma without considering the costs to her adult children and grandkids. Hey, Grandma used to make us cookies; she’s worth whatever we’ve got. And even what we don’t got. Even if we can’t, through the full range of “mitigation,” keep her alive for another two months in a nursing home, where she’s seldom visited. If she has to live in isolation and die alone to “stop the spread,” so be it.

But the effects of these giveaways are real, profound, and lasting. Some entities and people made nearly incomprehensible sums. Forbes reported that a record 493 new billionaires were created in 2020-21. Despite being semi-mothballed for an extended period, hospitals made record profits of $20 billion from Covid relief. Pharma companies have made at least $100 billion from the failed vaxxes. And Gates-owned Gilead, which made the Remdesivir that many blame for hospital deaths, cashed in big time. So did Zoom, Amazon and Netflix et al. Over 40 new shot, mask or test makers became billionaires, even though the masks and tests were scams and the shots flopped and killed or injured many. 

The government’s issuance of all that fiat money has made you significantly poorer. There are five times as many dollars in the money supply now than there were in January, 2020. Thus, you’re paying 18 percent more for the things you buy today than you did in March, 2020. It’s also harder than ever to buy a first home. Those who can afford a down payment will pay far more mortgage interest for decades. They’ll/you’ll also pay more in taxes, in perpetuity.

And if you didn’t already own an inflation hedge, such as real estate, stocks, or metals—the prices of which have increased because all of that printed money had to go somewhere—you’ve missed out on a wave of profit-taking that better-capitalized people have caught. Inflation has devalued trillions of dollars of aggregate household savings. The relatively few rich got richer and the more numerous un-rich became noticeably poorer....

....MUCH MORE
*
Also economist Paul Romer talking to venture capitalists in 2004.
**The antecedent of Emanuel's line is from another member of the Chicago mob, Saul Alinsky in Rules for Radicals, page 89:

"in the arena of action, a threat or a crisis becomes almost a precondition to communication" 

If interested see August 15's Rules For Radicals: "....The thirteenth rule: Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.":

You won't be disappointed if you approach this stuff thinking "People will do whatever they think they can get away with" China will invade Taiwan when then think they can get away with it. The corollary is also true: Guys don't attack the world heavyweight boxing champion, they think they won't get away with it.

And if you find someone not pushing their advantage to dominate and hurt others rejoice in tiny treasures and simple pleasures.

Rules for Radicals was originally conceived by Saul Alinsky as part of a larger war against politicians who got in his way, the tactics and techniques have been formalized and disseminated in colleges and universities and are now used against pretty much anyone that one disagrees with....

Capital Markets: "Market Awaits US Data and Leadership"

From Marc to Market:

Overview:  The dollar staged a major technical reversal yesterday, in a dramatic reaction to a considerably weaker JOLTs report than expected, spurring a large drop in US interest rates. And this is despite press reports that the participation rate in the survey is half of what was three years ago. We suspect the price action said as much about market positioning as it did about the data. The path to the US jobs data on Friday goes through tomorrow's personal consumption figures, which will speak to robust demand. Follow-through selling of the dollar has been limited in Asia and the European morning. US leadership (and data) are awaited. The euro and sterling are firm, but the other G10 currencies are mostly softer. German states CPI may point to smaller than expected slippage in the national figure (median forecast in Bloomberg's survey is for a 0.3% month-over-month increase, which would allow the year-over-year rate to ease to 6.3% from 6.5%). This and the small rise in Spain's CPI (2.4% vs. 2.1%) have increased the perceived odds of an ECB hike next month. Emerging market currencies are mixed. Hungary and Mexico lead the advancers, while the Turkish lira and South African rand pace the declining EM currencies.

Most of the large Asia Pacific bourses advanced. Reports that Chinese mortgage and deposit rates could be cut today initially helped lift Chinese stocks both on the mainland and in Hong Kong, but the buying dried up and the CSI 300 and Hang Seng finished slightly lower. Europe's Stoxx 600 is falling for the first time this week, giving back about 0.3% after rallying around 1.8% in the past two sessions. US index futures are trading with a bit softer after yesterday's strong advance. European bonds are selling up and benchmark 10-year yield are mostly 6-7 bp higher. Gilts are holding in a bit better, and the 10-year yield is up two basis points, in line with 10-year US Treasuries, which now yield about 4.14%. Despite the rise in rates and the lack of much follow-through dollar selling, gold is consolidating yesterday's $17 rally. It is in an exceptionally narrow $3 range near yesterday's high slightly above $1938. October WTI is firm, extending yesterday's gains toward $81.75. Another sharp drop in oil inventories was reported by API. If the 11.5 mln barrel drop is confirmed, US private oil stocks would be the lowest in a year....

....MUCH MORE

Tuesday, August 29, 2023

"The end of the Googleverse" (GOOG)

 From The Verge, August 28:

For two decades, Google Search was the invisible force that determined the ebb and flow of online content. Now, for the first time, its cultural relevance is in question.

The first thing ever searched on Google was the name Gerhard Casper, a former Stanford president. As the story goes, in 1998, Larry Page and Sergey Brin demoed Google for computer scientist John Hennessy. They searched Casper’s name on both AltaVista and Google. The former pulled up results for Casper the Friendly Ghost; the latter pulled up information on Gerhard Casper the person.

What made Google’s results different from AltaVista’s was its algorithm, PageRank, which organized results based on the amount of links between pages. In fact, the site’s original name, BackRub, was a reference to the backlinks it was using to rank results. If your site was linked to by other authoritative sites, it would place higher in the list than some random blog that no one was citing.

Google officially went online later in 1998. It quickly became so inseparable from both the way we use the internet and, eventually, culture itself, that we almost lack the language to describe what Google’s impact over the last 25 years has actually been. It’s like asking a fish to explain what the ocean is. And yet, all around us are signs that the era of “peak Google” is ending or, possibly, already over.

There is a growing chorus of complaints that Google is not as accurate, as competent, as dedicated to search as it once was. The rise of massive closed algorithmic social networks like Meta’s Facebook and Instagram began eating the web in the 2010s. More recently, there’s been a shift to entertainment-based video feeds like TikTok — which is now being used as a primary search engine by a new generation of internet users. 

For two decades, Google Search was the largely invisible force that determined the ebb and flow of online content. Now, for the first time since Google’s launch, a world without it at the center actually seems possible. We’re clearly at the end of one era and at the threshold of another. But to understand where we’re headed, we have to look back at how it all started.

If you’re looking for the moment Google truly crossed over into the zeitgeist, it was likely around 2001. In February 2000, Jennifer Lopez wore her iconic green Versace dress to the Grammys, which former Google CEO Eric Schmidt would later say searches for inspired how Google Image Search functioned when it launched in summer 2001. That year was also the moment when users began to realize that Google was important enough to hijack. 

The term “Google bombing” was first coined by Adam Mathes, now a product manager at Google, who first described the concept in April 2001 while writing for the site Uber.nu. Mathes successfully used the backlinks that fueled PageRank to make the search term “talentless hack” bring up his friend’s website. Mathes did not respond to a request for comment.

A humor site called Hugedisk.com, however, successfully pulled it off first in January 2001. A writer for the site, interviewed under the pseudonym Michael Hugedisk, told Wired in 2007 that their three-person team linked to a webpage selling pro-George W. Bush merchandise and was able to make it the top result on Google if you searched “dumb motherfucker.”

“One of the other guys who ran the site got a cease and desist letter from the bombed George Bush site’s lawyers. We chickened out and pulled down the link, but we got a lot of press,” Hugedisk recounted.

“It’s difficult to see which factors contribute to this result, though. It has to do with Google’s ranking algorithm,” a Google spokesperson said of the stunt at the time, calling the search results “an anomaly.”

But it wasn’t an anomaly. In fact, there’s a way of viewing the company’s 25-year history as an ongoing battle against users who want to manipulate what PageRank surfaces....

....MUCH MORE

Related:

"AI is killing the old web, and the new web struggles to be born"
Entropy, lowest common denominator, whatever we want to call it, that's where we're going.

FCC Commissioner Newton Minnow (see also S.S. Minnow) famously called television a "vast wasteland" but he didn't know the half of it, dying in May he didn't get to see A.I. generated content on the internet.
Big Business: "‘The rest of the ad industry is playing a loser’s game’"
Worldwide advertising revenues are closing in on $600 billion with Google alone raking in $58.14 billion for the quarter reported on July 25. Big business.
"Leaked Yandex Code Breaks Open the Creepy Black Box of Online Advertising"
I'll use Yandex to find something that Google has relegated to page 50 or 100 which, of course, they no longer show you.

So it seemed natural to mentally substitute "Google" for each occurrence of "Yandex" and then multiply the yuck factor by 20 to account for the GOOG's much greater reach and far more sophisticated technology. And then multiply by another order of magnitude to account for the company getting rid of the "Don't be evil" motto in 2015. Yikes!

Oil: "WTI Extends Gains After API Reports Huge Crude Draw"

From ZeroHedge, August 29:

Oil prices rallied today to one-week highs - despite weak jobs data - as the dollar dived and everything went wildly risk-on. Potential shut-ins from Hurricane Idalia combined with more Chinese stimulus measures trumped news of additional Russian supplies as physical markets continue to show signs of tightness.

“The oil market remains rangebound, with underlying support stemming from continued tightness across fuel products,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank.

The recent draws in Crude (and at Cushing) are expected to continue...

API

  • Crude -11.486mm (-2mm exp)

  • Cushing -2.23mm

  • Gasoline +1.4mm (-1.3mm exp)

  • Distillates +2.46mm (-500k exp)

Crude stocks drew-down for the 3rd week in a row, plunging 11.5mm barrels last week (perhaps in preparation for Idalia?)...

....MUCH MORE

Most active futures WTI: $81.32; Brent $85.83.

Recently:

Meanwhile, In Chicago...

From CWB, Chicago, August 28:

TV news crew robbed while reporting on Chicago robbery sprees; armed men targeted at least 30 people in about 12 hours

The armed robbery problem has become so bad in Chicago that armed robbers this morning robbed a TV news crew doing a story about an armed robbery in West Town.

That unbelievable development came as at least 30 people were robbed or carjacked during sprees between Sunday afternoon and Monday morning....

....MUCH MORE

The criminals are quite brazen:

Video: Armed robbery crew claims 3 victims in 25 seconds at Logan Square auto shop

Woman shot during robbery across from Chicago police station; separate shooting reported nearby

Hot Chips 2023 At Stanford: Nvidia Chief Scientist Bill Dally's Keynote Speech (NVDA)

Bill Dally used to Chair Stanford's computer science department. Then he decided to make some real money. Today he keynoted Hot Chips 35 held live at Stanford and online.

From Nvidia's blog, August 29:

Wide Horizons: NVIDIA Keynote Points Way to Further AI Advances
Chief Scientist Bill Dally described research poised to take machine learning to the next level

Dramatic gains in hardware performance have spawned generative AI, and a rich pipeline of ideas for future speedups that will drive machine learning to new heights, Bill Dally, NVIDIA’s chief scientist and senior vice president of research, said today in a keynote.

Dally described a basket of techniques in the works — some already showing impressive results — in a talk at Hot Chips, an annual event for processor and systems architects.

“The progress in AI has been enormous, it’s been enabled by hardware and it’s still gated by deep learning hardware,” said Dally, one of the world’s foremost computer scientists and former chair of Stanford University’s computer science department.

He showed, for example, how ChatGPT, the large language model (LLM) used by millions, could suggest an outline for his talk. Such capabilities owe their prescience in large part to gains from GPUs in AI inference performance over the last decade, he said.

Chart of single GPU performance advances
Gains in single-GPU performance are just part of a larger story that includes million-x advances in scaling to data-center-sized supercomputers.

Research Delivers 100 TOPS/Watt

Researchers are readying the next wave of advances. Dally described a test chip that demonstrated nearly 100 tera operations per watt on an LLM.

The experiment showed an energy-efficient way to further accelerate the transformer models used in generative AI. It applied four-bit arithmetic, one of several simplified numeric approaches that promise future gains.

Looking further out, Dally discussed ways to speed calculations and save energy using logarithmic math, an approach NVIDIA detailed in a 2021 patent.

Tailoring Hardware for AI
He explored a half dozen other techniques for tailoring hardware to specific AI tasks, often by defining new data types or operations.

Dally described ways to simplify neural networks, pruning synapses and neurons in an approach called structural sparsity, first adopted in NVIDIA A100 Tensor Core GPUs.

“We’re not done with sparsity,” he said. “We need to do something with activations and can have greater sparsity in weights as well.”

Researchers need to design hardware and software in tandem, making careful decisions on where to spend precious energy, he said. Memory and communications circuits, for instance, need to minimize data movements.

“It’s a fun time to be a computer engineer because we’re enabling this huge revolution in AI, and we haven’t even fully realized yet how big a revolution it will be,” Dally said....

....MORE

 And more to come.

Coming Up In Crypto: "The Ripple and Terraform Cases Tee Up a Dramatic Showdown over Cryptocurrency Regulation"

From Columbia Law School's CLS Blue Sky blog, August 14:

On July 31, U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff in New York decided a case with significant implications for how and even whether the Securities and Exchange Commission can regulate cryptocurrencies as a security. His decision contrasts sharply with a ruling just two weeks before by one of his colleagues on the court and brings at least a little clarity – and common sense – to the issue for regulators, investors, companies, and the public at large.

In ruling on a motion to dismiss, Rakoff held that the cryptocurrencies at issue may be securities and refused to draw a distinction based on whether they were sold directly to institutional investors or on the secondary market. His decision in SEC v. Terraform Labs. Pte. Ltd. rejected the approach in a separate case, Securities and Exchange Commission v. Ripple, et.al., where Judge Analisa Torres did make such a distinction, mangling the so-called Howey Test, which for almost 70 years has determined what is a security or, more specifically, an investment contract. The judges’ conflicting rulings means the Second Circuit will almost certainly decide on appeal one of the most important and confusing securities-law issues to arise in decades.

Back to Basics
When the Securities Act of 1933 was enacted, it allowed the SEC to regulate a variety of securities, including the ill-defined “investment contracts.” In 1946, the Supreme Court handed down a landmark case, Securities and Exchange Commission v. W.J. Howey Co., which laid out a four-part test to determine whether the transaction would be classified as the sale of a security. In short, it required 1) an investment of money 2) in a common enterprise 3) with the expectations of a profit 4) to be derived from the efforts of others.

A Ripple in the Water
In December 2020, the SEC brought an action against the Ripple Labs and several affiliated individuals for the sale of unregistered securities in violation of Section 5 of the Securities Act. The action centered on a token issued by Ripple known as “XRP.” After extensive discovery and a series of initial motions, the Ripple court agreed to hear cross-motions for summary judgment on September 13, 2022.

The Ripple court considered three questions, one with several subparts. The first asked whether XRP is an investment contract defined as a security. The second focused on whether certain transactions involving XRP constituted breaches of the Section 5 registration requirements. The final question asked whether executives at Ripple aided and abetted the company in violating securities laws.

As to the first question, the Ripple court ruled that “XRP, as a digital token, is not in and of itself a ‘contract, transaction[,] or scheme’ that embodies the Howey requirements of an investment contract.” Many commentators stopped reading at this point and argued that this was a win for Ripple. However, the court went on to say that a totality of the circumstances surrounding the differing transactions by the different defendants must be examined.

Sometimes a Security, Other Times Not?
To answer the second question, the Ripple court examined four broad categories of transactions involving XRP. The first was sales to institutional investors. The second involved so-called “programmatic sales” on digital asset exchanges. The third involved “other distributions” under written contracts. The fourth was sales by individual executives, specifically Chris Larsen, one of the founders and a former CEO of the company, and Brad Garlinghouse, the current CEO of Ripple.

Judge Torres found that the sales to institutional investors constituted a sale of unregistered securities because those investors were “situated in the position of Institutional Buyers.” Such buyers could reasonably understand that Ripple would use the money to improve the XRP Ledger and thus increase the value of the token. The repeated public statements by the company and its executives all seemed to indicate a plan to increase the value of the token. Finally, the buyers were required to comply with lockup provisions and resale restrictions based on the trading volume of XRP – thus they were not purchasing with the intent to resell or otherwise distribute....

....MUCH MORE

This is what Courts of Appeal are made for.  

Elon Got Himself A Supercomputer: "Tesla's $300 Million AI Cluster Is Going Live Today" (TSLA)

From Tom's Hardware, August 28:

Tesla is about to flip the switch on its new AI cluster, featuring 10,000 Nvidia H100 compute GPUs.

Tesla is set to launch its highly-anticipated supercomputer on Monday, according to @SawyerMerritt. The machine will be used for various artificial intelligence (AI) applications, but the cluster is so powerful that it could also be used for demanding high-performance computing (HPC) workloads. In fact, the Nvidia H100-based supercomputer will be one of the most powerful machines in the world.

Tesla's new cluster will employ 10,000 Nvidia H100 compute GPUs, which will offer a peak performance of 340 FP64 PFLOPS for technical computing and 39.58 INT8 ExaFLOPS for AI applications. In fact, Tesla’s 340 FP64 PFLOPS is higher than 304 FP64 PFLOPS offered by Leonardo, the world’s fourth highest-performing supercomputer.

With its new supercomputer, Tesla is significantly enhancing its computing capabilities to train its full self-driving (FSD) technology faster than ever. This could not only make Tesla more competitive than other automakers but will make the company the owner of one of the world's fastest supercomputers.

"Due to real-world video training, we may have the largest training datasets in the world, hot tier cache capacity beyond 200PB — orders of magnitudes more than LLMs," explained Tim Zaman, AI Infra & AI Platform Engineering Manager at Tesla....

....MUCH MORE

HT: HPC [high performance computing] Wire, August 29:

"Tesla Launches New $300M AI Cluster for Advanced Computation" 

Previously:
July 20

correction: At this level of performance one does not simply buy a supercomputer, one builds a supercomputer. 
*****
....For some background on Tesla and AI here is our introduction to June 9's "Elon Musk Predicts Nvidia’s Monopoly in A.I. Chips Won’t Last" (NVDA; TSLA)":

Before we get to the headline story, some background. Tesla and Nvidia have a history.

In 2015 - 2016 when everyone thought that autonomous driving was just around the corner, the challenge was seen as both a sensor issue, for example: LIDAR vs cameras, and a machine learning/artificial intelligence problem which boils down to training the AI 'puters with as much data as you can so that out in the real world the autonomous vehicle can say to itself: "Yeah, I've seen this situation before, here's the response that worked best. Both the training and the on-the-road-recall, if they are to be anywhere near efficient, require the fastest chips you can find. Tesla had a whole bunch of data from a few billion miles of actual driving for computers to train on, and, combined with Nvidia's fastest-in-the-world GPU chips, it was a match made in heaven.

Except it wasn't.

The challenge of autonomous driving on open roads alongside non-autonomous vehicles was bigger than anyone in that simple, optimistic time ever envisioned, even in their nightmares. Here's one example about Waymo from a 2017 post:

"When Google was training its self-driving car on the streets of Mountain View, California, the car rounded a corner and  encountered a woman in a wheelchair, waving a broom, chasing a duck. The car hadn’t encountered this before so it stopped and waited."

In May 2015 we were posting " Nvidia Wants to Be the Brains Of Your Autonomous Car (NVDA)" and seven months later the more declarative "Class Act: Nvidia Will Be The Brains Of Your Autonomous Car (NVDA)"

Then in October 2016, what was probably the high-water mark for the relationship "Nvidia Could Make $1B From Tesla's Self-Driving Decree: Analyst (TSLA, NVDA)"

Sadly, the task was just too difficult but Mr. Musk thought it was doable if only he could get even faster chips than Nvidia had on offer:

NVIDIA Partner Tesla Reportedly Developing Chip With AMD (TSLA; NVDA; AMD) 
Today in leveraged WTFs....

"During a talk at a private party, Elon Musk said Tesla is developing specialized AI hardware "'That we think will be the best in the world;" (TSLA)  

"Tesla says it’s dumping Nvidia chips for a homebrew alternative" (TSLA)
The only reason for Tesla to do this is that NVIDIA's chips are general purpose whereas specialized chips are making inroads in stuff like crypto mining (ASICs), Google's Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) for machine learning and Facebook's hardware efforts. 
 
 Watch Out NVIDIA: "Google Details Tensor Chip Powers" (GOOG; NVDA)
We've said NVIDIA probably has a couple year head start but this bears watching, so to speak....

Culminating in August 2018's
"Nvidia CEO is 'more than happy to help' if Tesla's A.I. chip doesn't pan out" (NVDA; TSLA)

And now on to the headliner, from Observer, June 8:
Elon Musk Predicts Nvidia’s Monopoly in A.I. Chips Won’t Last....

And possibly related July 13:
Elon Musk's x.AI Launches
The company was formed in March so it's valuation is probably around a hundred billion or so.

Just kidding. I have no idea what sort of valuation it has been assigned. x.AI is a Nevada corporation which, as our corporate attorney readers well know, is handy as hell for a privately-held stealth company. As part of the company's coming-out I think they dropped the period in the name on the original incorporation papers.

Mr. Musk was one of the founder/funders ($100 million gift not equity) of ChatGPT parent OpenAI when it was a .org (non-profit) and seemed a bit miffed when Sam Alman hooked up with Microsoft to the tune of $10 billion.

So Elon went out and bought a garage-full of GPUs.

Here's a twofer, first up TechCrunch, July 12:....

 

WaPo: "How the ‘urban doom loop’ could pose the next economic threat"

Just one more reason to go north.*

From the Washington Post, August 28:

A commercial real estate apocalypse — especially in midsize cities — could spiral into the broader economy

In Indianapolis, the technology giant Salesforce is paring back a quarter of its office space in the tallest building in Indiana, where it has been a key tenant for the past six years. In Atlanta, the private investment giant Starwood Capital defaulted on a $212 million mortgage on a 29-story office tower. And in Baltimore, a landmark building sold for $24 million last month, roughly $42 million less than it fetched in 2015.

All across the country, downtowns, office spaces and shopping centers are at risk of becoming ground zero for a new economic hazard: the urban doom loop. The fear is that a commercial real estate apocalypse could spiral out and slow commerce, wrecking local tax revenue in the process. Ever since the pandemic drove a boom in remote work, hubs such as New York and San Francisco have drawn attention for their empty offices in previously bustling skyscrapers. But many economists are even more worried about midsize cities that have fewer ways to offset the blow when a major company slashes office space, the sale price of a building craters, or a downtown turns into a ghost town.

The worst-case scenario would go like this: With more people working from home, companies from Milwaukee to Memphis are rethinking their leases or pulling out of them altogether. That drives vacancy rates up and makes it harder for landlords to attract new tenants or sell buildings for a healthy price.

Then property owners might struggle to pay off their mortgages or clear other debt. Business districts would dry up, stifling tax revenue from commercial properties or employee wages. Shoppers and tourists would have fewer reasons to venture downtown to eat or shop, choking off spending and forcing layoffs at restaurants and retail stores.

“Once those offices are empty, there are few alternatives and not a lot of life after hours,” said Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, a professor of real estate and finance at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business who is one of the authors of a paper that coined the “urban doom loop” phrase. Midsize cities “have a much bigger chasm to cross than what New York City has to go through. The situation is worse in those places with so little else in place.” He added, “It is a train wreck in slow motion.”

Economists caution that such a train wreck is not guaranteed, and the spiral has not kicked into gear anywhere yet. There are a few reasons: Many cities are still leaning on historic levels of state and local stimulus aid from the 2021 American Rescue Plan, and those funds may not run out for another year or two. A large share of the outstanding business and mortgage loans are also not due for a few more years. Plus, the economy continues to defy the odds, dampening concerns that widespread layoffs or drops in consumer spending could trigger this dangerous loop.

Yet the Federal Reserve has highlighted commercial real estate as one of the risks to financial stability. And troubling signs are piling up, often in places that are already vulnerable. Midsize cities have some of the highest rates of office delinquency, where loan payments on buildings are behind schedule, and the lowest rates of office occupancy.

The average delinquency rate across the 50 largest metro areas in the country is about 5 percent. But in places like Charlotte in North Carolina or Hartford in Connecticut, it is almost 30 percent, according to data from the real estate analytics company Trepp.

Likewise, occupancy rates average about 87 percent. But in Oklahoma City, it is just 71 percent, and 76 percent in Memphis and St. Louis....

....MUCH MORE
*Earlier:
A Very Detailed Plan To Invade Canada

A Very Detailed Plan To Invade Canada

As we said in January:
*****
....And from the turnabout is fair play file:
  • Canada's secret plan to invade the US: How gung-ho 1920s colonel planned to take Detroit, Seattle and Portland in five-pronged attack over $22 billion debt row 
  • Canadian colonel formulated plan to invade US after traveling to Vermont in a disguise for intelligence research
  • Defense Scheme No. 1 would have taken cities such as Seattle and Detroit
  • US had own plan to take over Halifax and cut Canada off from Great Britain
  • Charles Lindbergh flew spy mission over Hudson Bay, recommended the use of chemical weapons
  • New book War Plan Red details conflict between the two neighbors

The United States and Canada have been described as the closest of allies, though tensions between the two countries as recently as 80 years ago saw Canada mock up invasion plans against its southern neighbor.

The beginning of the 20th century saw both the US and a Canadian lieutenant colonel formulate plans to send soldiers into each other's heartlands in the event of war.

A new book titled War Plan Red by Kevin Lippert details the long history of conflicts between the two North Americans nations, which included spy missions flown by famed aviator Charles Lindbergh....

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/05/25/04/290D8B8700000578-3095635-image-m-40_1432525660502.jpg

....MUCH MORE 

Okay, not the most accurate map. I can imagine some slightly bewildered Canuck down on the Kentucky - Ohio border asking the way to Detroit, eh.

One concern though, should the U.S. move on Toronto and environs (nice 'hood):

"How quickly could Canada build an atomic bomb?"

 And the headline story from Not the Bee, August 11:

This guy came up with a VERY detailed plan to conquer Canada and people are loving it in the replies

Ladies and gentlemen, America has a long tradition of liberating totalitarian countries rich in oil, and it just so happens that Canada now fits the bill.

To that end, this very fine random man on the internet has come up with a bulletproof plan - BULLETPROOF, I SAY - to conquer the vast domain of our northern neighbors.

Don't lie, you've probably spent many a sleepless night thinking of how street-to-street fighting in Ontario would go, or how to position an invasion fleet off the coast of Vancouver....

https://media.notthebee.com/articles/article-64d633907070d.jpg

....MUCH MORE

"Any major Florida hurricane, like Idalia, can be multi-billion insurance loss event"

Idalia is now a hurricane with sustained winds of 80 mph and forecast to reach, at minimum, category 3 status (major hurricane) with winds of 111 - 130 mph, before making landfall:

cone graphic

 National Hurricane Center

And from the catastrophe bond - re/insurance mavens at Artemis, August 28:

As tropical storm Idalia continues to develop, the latest from the NHC forecasts a Category 3 major hurricane Idalia will approach the Florida coastline, leading BMS Senior Meteorologist Andrew Siffert to highlight the potential for any storm of this kind to be a multi-billion dollar insurance and reinsurance market loss event.

In his latest update on the development of what will be hurricane Idalia, BMS’ Siffert also cautions that Tampa is still within the forecast cone of uncertainty.

“A major hurricane in any section of Florida that extends into the Southeast states is likely a multi-billion dollar insurance industry event,” Siffert explains.

Adding, “However, it is too soon to provide a narrowed loss range because there is still a 30% probability, based on the super ensemble, that Idalia could impact Tampa at this time with the metro areas still within the National Hurricane Center cone of uncertainty.

“These scenarios are pretty eye-opening, so the next 24 hours are critical as we observe what the ultimate track for Idalia will be so the industry impacts can be fine-tuned.”

As we reported this morning, Idalia is the first serious threat to Florida as well as the insurance, reinsurance, catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities (ILS) industry of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, with the NHC forecasting the storm to reach major Category 3 sustained wind speeds....

....MUCH MORE

And August 29:

Idalia forecast to be “extremely dangerous major hurricane” for Florida

Idalia has now become a hurricane, running a little behind the forecast schedule as it meandered around Cuba, but now moving into the far southern Gulf of Mexico, the NHC warns hurricane Idalia will be an “extremely dangerous major hurricane” for Florida.

Hurricane Idalia is set to rapidly intensify right the way up to landfall, according to the NHC.

In fact, the latest forecast advisory now sees a major hurricane Idalia with sustained winds of 120 mph reaching the Gulf Coast of Florida, while gusts are expected to be approaching 150 mph as landfall nears.

The hurricane Idalia intensity forecasts from the NHC have eventually converged with what the main hurricane forecast models had been saying a few days ago, that the storm is likely to be Category 3 at least when it approaches the Panhandle region of the Florida Gulf Coast.

That’s a really significant storm, with the potential for significant property damage and loss of lives, as well as commensurate impacts to insurance, reinsurance and perhaps catastrophe bond or insurance-linked securities (ILS) interests.

You can see the latest location for Idalia below, using Tomer Burg’s excellent map which shows wind speed forecasts in increments and sea surface temperatures as well, using the NHC data....
*****
....We’ve seen some early modelled loss projections, based on stochastic catalogue and analogue storms, which suggest anything in a range from $5 billion to as much as $20 billion, so far, depending on the exact landfall location. Some of those would require a pretty significant track-shift to take Idalia to a higher value coastal region, so we believe the market is largely working off a sub-$20bn estimate at this time.....

....MUCH MORE

And:  

Hurricane Idalia not expected to significantly impact cat bonds: Plenum

"Why China is reluctant to launch a massive economic bailout"

From the South China Morning Post, August 29:

  •  Beijing’s move away from aggressive macroeconomic policy goes back to ‘de-risking’ efforts that began in 2016
  •  However, the growing risk of a protracted downturn underscores the need to find more effective solutions to the pressing economic challenges
China’s aggregate demand has weakened significantly over the past three years. In addition to the enduring effects of China’s anti-Covid policy, the country has also been weighed down by the decrease in global demand. Exports fell by 14.5 per cent year on year in July.
Given such downturn pressures, the government’s decision not to announce a massive stimulus package, as many had anticipated, has left foreign and Chinese observers deeply perplexed.

While China’s leaders are certainly aware of the ongoing economic slowdown, they may be estimating that the risk of a bailout is worse than the risk of inaction. Or perhaps they have more confidence in the domestic economy’s resilience against a global recession and believe that it will recover quickly on its own.

Regardless, China seems to have chosen not to take further action. In fact, it currently faces significant roadblocks to any additional economic intervention. After all, the accumulation of massive debt, particularly among local governments, has left China with limited room for manoeuvre.
Moreover, the external environment has become increasingly unfavourable since at least 2018, presenting challenges unlike any it has faced over the past 40 years

Consequently, China has adopted an increasingly cautious approach to macroeconomic management. Monetary policy is an interesting case in point.

At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020, for example, the US Federal Reserve immediately cut interest rates to near zero. By contrast, the People’s Bank of China lowered interest rates by only 0.2 percentage points.
 
Similarly, while the Fed has raised interest rates rapidly in response to surging inflation, hiking them by five percentage points since March last year, the PBOC has pursued a series of modest rate cuts to accommodate gross domestic product growth and reduced demand.
This approach is also the main reason China has avoided runaway inflation over the past two years. This was made clear in an April speech by former PBOC governor Yi Gang during his visit to the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
 
During his speech, Yi highlighted the PBOC’s adherence to the “attenuation principle”, which suggests that central bankers should refrain from taking drastic action under uncertain circumstances. While this well-known concept was first introduced by Yale economist William Brainard in 1967, Yi’s speech offered valuable insights into the shift in China’s economic-policy thinking in recent years....

Capital Markets: "Still No Follow-Through Dollar Buying After Last Week's Surge"

 From Marc to Market:

Overview: The dollar was threatening to break higher at the end of last week, and the euro and sterling closed below key supports. However, so far this week, the greenback is consolidating and has not seen follow-through buying. The key data this week, US consumption and jobs, and the eurozone's CPI still lay ahead. The Antipodeans and Norwegian krone enjoy a firmer today. A 0.8% contraction in Sweden's Q2 GDP was not as deep as had been feared, but enough to keep the Swedish krona on the defensive. The G10 currencies are mostly trading in narrow ranges. Emerging market currencies are mixed. The South African rand and Hungarian forint lead the advancers. There is some speculation that Hungary may cut its base rate today.

Stocks in the Asia Pacific extended yesterday's rally, led by Hong Kong and China. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up about 0.5% after gaining 0.9% yesterday. US index futures are narrowly mixed. Bond yields are mostly lower. Benchmark 10-years yields are 2-4 bp lower in Europe, with the exception of UK Gilts, where the yield is slightly firmer after yesterday's holiday. The 10-year US Treasury yield is off one basis point to about 4.19%. The two-year yield has slipped slightly below 5.0%. Note that yesterday, the sold $222 bln in bills and notes and comes back for another $96 bln today (bills and notes). Softer yields help support gold prices. Recall that the yellow metal bottomed last week near $1885 and reached $1926 yesterday. It is firm now near yesterday's highs. October WTI bottomed last week near $77.60 and reached almost $80.90 yesterday. It is holding just below there so far today, testing the 20-day moving average (~$80.75). Talk that OPEC+ may extend production cuts, ostensibly in reaction to anticipated weaker demand from China seems to be neutralizing what appears to be increased Iranian supply....

....MUCH MORE

Monday, August 28, 2023

"The Iron Law Of Power Density, Part 2"

Following on  Energy: "The Power Of Power Density".

From Robert Bryce's substack (energy, power innovation, politics), August 20:

A look at EROEI and material intensity per megawatt-hour

My August 13 article, “The Power Of Power Density,” is the second most popular article I have published here on Substack. The article struck a chord. Why? I suspect that lots of people want to have a better grasp of the physics that rule our energy and power systems.

As I explained last week, power density is perhaps the most important — and yet least understood — metric in physics. Indeed, many people who work in the energy and power sectors don’t understand it. In addition, the Iron Law of Power Density  — which says the lower the power density, the greater the resource intensity — helps us understand why wind and solar energy cannot, will not, ever be able to power our society. In addition to their incurable intermittency and dependence on the weather, they require too much land and other resources.

Given the favorable response to last week’s posting, I am going to expand on it here. First, I’ll explore another key metric: energy return on energy invested or EROEI. Like power density, EROEI is a critical tool for understanding why our energy and power systems continue to be dominated by hydrocarbons and why we should be focusing our efforts on natural gas and nuclear energy.

In addition, I am publishing two new graphics. The first is an updated resource intensity graphic that looks at electricity generation capacity, measured in kilograms per megawatt. The second graphic looks at the resource intensity of electricity production by measuring it in kilograms per megawatt-hour of energy produced. Spoiler alert: the new graphic shows even more clearly why offshore wind is such a loser.

Before diving into EROEI, a quick refresher: power density is a measure of energy flow that can be harnessed from a given area, volume, or mass. Thus, power density can be measured in watts per square meter, per liter, or per kilogram. I largely focus on areal power density — measured in watts per square meter — because it is the key to understanding land use and why the paltry power density of wind and solar has led to land-use conflicts from Erie County, Ohio to the Golan Heights. If you want to dive into volumetric and gravimetric power density — measured in watts per liter or watts per kilogram, which are essential to understanding motors and engines — I suggest you read my fifth book, Smaller Faster Lighter Denser Cheaper: How Innovation Keeps Proving the Catastrophists Wrong.)

Now, EROEI.  The importance of this metric is obvious: we want maximum return on the cash we put in the bank or the stock market. We also want maximum return on the energy we spend. Just as it takes money to make money, producing energy always requires using energy. Whether it’s chopping wood for the fireplace, the diesel fuel needed to run the generators that power a drilling rig, or the electricity needed to spin the centrifuges that enrich the uranium fuel that we put in our nuclear reactors, we have to spend energy to get energy. And the less we have to spend, the better.


As can be seen in the graphic above, wind and solar have a woefully low EROEI of 3.5:1, that is, for every unit of energy put into wind and solar, you get 3.5 units of energy out. Meanwhile, nuclear has an EROEI of 100 to 1....

....MUCH MORE

A.I.: "‘Generative inbreeding’ and its risk to human culture"

 From VentureBeat, August 26:

Inbreeding refers to genomic corruption when members of a population reproduce with other members who are too genetically similar. This often leads to offspring with significant health problems and other deformities because it amplifies the expression of recessive genes. When inbreeding is widespread — as it can be in modern livestock production — the entire gene pool can be degraded over time, amplifying deformities as the population gets less and less diverse. 

In the world of generative AI, a similar problem exists, potentially threatening the long-term effectiveness of AI systems and the diversity of human culture. From an evolutionary perspective, first generation large language models (LLMs) and other gen AI systems were trained on a relatively clean “gene pool” of human artifacts, using massive quantities of textual, visual and audio content to represent the essence of our cultural sensibilities. 

But as the internet gets flooded with AI-generated artifacts, there is a significant risk that new AI systems will train on datasets that include large quantities of AI-created content. This content is not direct human culture, but emulated human culture with varying levels of distortion, thereby corrupting the “gene pool” through inbreeding. And as gen AI systems increase in use, this problem will only accelerate. After all, newer AI systems that are trained on copies of human culture will fill the world with increasingly distorted artifacts, causing the next generation of AI systems to train on copies of copies of human culture, and so on.

Degrading gen AI systems, distorting human culture

I refer to this emerging problem as “Generative Inbreeding,” and I worry about two troubling consequences. First, there is the potential degradation of gen AI systems, as inbreeding reduces their ability to accurately represent human language, culture and artifacts. Second, there is the distortion of human culture by inbred AI systems that increasingly introduce “deformities” into our cultural gene pool that don’t actually represent our collective sensibilities....

....MUCH MORE

If interested see also:  "When AI Is Trained on AI-Generated Data, Strange Things Start to Happen" and "Artificial Data To Train Artificial intelligence"