Thursday, November 28, 2024

Did The FBI's Issuance Of Fake Crypto Violate the SEC's Howey and Weaver's Beavers Doctrines?

Just kidding, the question of "what is a security" was not addressed.

From CoinTelegraph's Magazine, November 14:

Legal issues surround the FBI’s creation of fake crypto tokens
Novel tokens launched by the FBI and AI agents raise more questions. Our panel of crypto lawyers discusses what’s legal and who bears legal liability.

United States authorities have recently charged 18 individuals with cryptocurrency market manipulation following a Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) sting operation, in which law agents created a token to lure market makers into illegal wash trading

The case has sparked debate on the application of traditional financial laws, such as anti-market manipulation rules, within the cryptocurrency industry. The case also raises potential copyright concerns, with allegations that the FBI may have improperly used open-source code for its token.

Meanwhile, technologies like autonomous AI agents now play roles in controlling crypto wallets, and questions of accountability in crypto transactions and tokens become more complex: Who ultimately bears responsibility?

Magazine spoke with a panel of legal experts to find out more: Digital & Analogue Partners co-founder Catherine Smirnova in Europe, co-chair of the Hong Kong Web3 Association Joshua Chu from Asia, and Rikka Law Managing Partner Charlyn Ho from the United States. 

The discussion has been edited for clarity and brevity.

Magazine: The US Justice Department has charged 18 individuals and entities for alleged market manipulation and wash trading. How is wash trading defined legally, and how does it apply to the crypto industry?

Smirnova: The definition [of wash trading] is more or less similar in different markets, whether it’s the US, the United Kingdom or the European Union. It belongs to the financial markets, not only to crypto markets. It involves simultaneous buying and selling transactions of the same security to create misleading market activity or to create the wrong impression that this asset is in high demand.

It is completely illegal in every single legal system, and — surprise, surprise — there is nothing different with crypto assets. This is a market of securities, and yes, white-collar crimes are illegal. They’re still crimes even if the asset is a crypto asset.

Chu: In Hong Kong, there are basically mechanisms that prohibit people from doing market manipulation practices as if it’s a security. We have these provisions under Section 53, set out in the Anti-Money Laundering Ordinance, which allows regulators to penalize people for recklessly promoting or inducing people into purchasing virtual assets. The wording of that law is copied from securities law.

If you know that a certain product is not justifiable to have a certain price, but you’re taking certain actions to drive it up and inducing others to follow that particular purchase, that, in itself, may result in prosecution.

I’ve always been an advocate saying that you don’t need a new set of rules to govern new technologies because existing laws are actually more than adequate in covering most crimes. Fraud will always be fraud, [and] market manipulation will always be market manipulation.

Magazine: The FBI created its own token to lure market manipulators and wash traders in this operation. Public discussions on X allege that they infringed copyright laws by doing so. So, did the FBI violate the MIT License and is it thus subject to copyright infringement?....

....MUCH MORE

"...for most people following the crypto space, Howey is an old frenemy"
As for the beavers, it's down to the link-vault, be right back.

Thanksgiving and Beer

First posted November 27, 2013: From a 2011 email to a friend:

So Thursday was beautiful and around 1:00 p.m. I said "I'd like a beer".
Rather than "Here, let me get one for you" my interlocutor says "You and Samoset".
Being quick-witted I respond "Huh?"
And receive "You remember Samoset?"
"Uh, sure. Samoset, Squanto and Massasoit, right?"
"Look it up"

So I do.
March 16, 1621
The Pilgrims made it through that first winter, spring is coming and lo-and-behold, so is one of the locals.
The Pilgrims grab their guns shouting "Indians, Indians" and he continues walking right into the middle of their camp and says:

"Welcome"

After the Pilgrim version of "WTF" they say "Welcome".

The big guy responds "I am Samoset".

Time for another quick "WTF" before he continues:

"Have you any beer?"

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Friday, the 16th, a fair warm day towards; this morning we determined to conclude of the military orders, which we had begun to consider of before but were interrupted by the savages, as we mentioned formerly.
And whilst we were busied hereabout, we were interrupted again, for there presented himself a savage, which caused an alarm. He very boldly came all alone and along the houses straight to the rendezvous, where we intercepted him, not suffering him to go in, as undoubtedly he would, out of his boldness.
He saluted us in England [English], and bade us welcome, for he had learned some broken English among the Englishmen that came to fish at Monchiggon [Monhegan Island], and knew by name the most of the captains, commanders, and masters that usually came. He was a man free in speech, so far as he could express his mind, and of a seemly carriage. We questioned him of many things; he was the first savage we could meet withal. He said he was not of these parts, but of Morattiggon [Monhegan Island or Pemaquid, Maine], and one of the sagamores or lords thereof, and had been eight months in these parts, it lying hence a day's sail with a great wind, and five days by land. He discoursed of the whole country, and of every province, and of their sagamores, and their number of men, and strength.
The wind being to rise a little, we cast a horseman's coat about him, for he was stark naked, only a leather about his waist, with a fringe about a span long, or little more; he had a bow and two arrows, the one headed, and the other unheaded. He was a tall straight man, the hair of his head black, long behind, only short before, none on his face at all; he asked some beer, but we gave him strong water and biscuit, and butter, and cheese, and pudding, and a piece of mallard, all which he liked well, and had been acquainted with such amongst the English."

Mourt's Relations, Edward Winslow, 1622
(damn near contemporaneous, eh?)
There is no record of Samoset being at the harvest feast that Autumn of 1621 but he helped make it happen and because he did, 213 years later, in ca. 1934, Macy's could do this (via Mental Floss):

Mickey Mouse has made many appearances over the years, in various incarnations. But the first Mickey balloon, which appeared in 1934's parade, was designed with the help of Walt Disney himself. Photo courtesy of Macy's, Inc.

 

Thanksgiving Day Stories

We have a few scheduled. Back later today, half-day tomorrow.

For those who celebrate the day, Happy Thanksgiving. For those who don't celebrate the day, happy thanksgiving.

From the Paris Review, November 25, 2015:

The Nexus of All Despair
by Jane Stern

Our Winter 2015 issue features an interview with Jane and Michael Stern, who have written more than forty books; their Roadfood, first published in 1978 and now in its eighth edition, brought a new fervor and attention to regional American cuisine. To celebrate the new issue and the holiday, Jane Stern reflects here on Thanksgivings past. Happiness abounds. —D. P.
I’ve always thought that Thanksgiving was my favorite holiday, based solely on the fact that I adore turkey. But if I were to remove turkey from the equation, I would probably realize that this holiday, for me, has been nothing but one hideous thing after another.

Why Thanksgiving is the nexus of all despair is a mystery. But to prove that it is, here’s a short list of some of the things I remember.

1956, New Haven, Connecticut
The table is beautifully set in the dining room of the gracious colonial house on Trumbull Street, where my aunt and uncle live. I am ten years old, and my older cousins—Eric, seventeen, and his sister, Willa, thirteen—are my teen idols. After the family takes a few snapshots of all of us smiling, the food is spread out on the table and the shit hits the fan. Uncle Henry makes a snide remark about Elvis Presley, who has just been on The Ed Sullivan Show, and cousin Willa flings herself from the table in a histrionic fit. The whole table erupts into a pro- and anti-Elvis fight. The dinner is ruined, no one is hungry, and the gravy curdles as “All Shook Up” blasts from the phonograph in Willa’s room behind the slammed door.

1971, New Haven, Connecticut
A newlywed, I forgo seeing my family for Thanksgiving, and for a change of pace Michael and I invite two friends over. The only flaw in this plan is that I do not know how to cook. Undeterred, I take cookbooks out of the library, buy bags and bags of food, and at some point realize the twenty-eight-pound turkey (for four) will not fit in our apartment’s modest oven. I hack it into pieces.

By the time the two guests arrive, I’ve been cooking for four days, making unspeakably horrible and complicated dishes. I’ve also arranged flowers, cleaned the apartment, repainted the bathroom, and stocked up on Mateus and Boone’s Farm apple wine. I vaguely remember the guests arriving. I’m told that twenty minutes after they did, I excused myself and went to bed. I wake up the next day to a sink full of dirty dishes.

1977, Evanston, Illinois
My in-laws live in the Midwest, and every other Thanksgiving Michael and I travel to see them. This year we’re going to a close relative’s house a few miles away from where his parents live. These relatives are very pretentious. The house is Japanesque. We are instructed to remove our shoes when we enter. The floors are highly polished wood; the furniture is low, uncomfortable, and expensive. The host, a doctor, collects small, tortured bonsai trees.

Seventy-seven is the year the Cuisinart hit the American food scene, and these relatives are nothing if not on trend. Their Thanksgiving menu: pureed capon, pureed creamed spinach, pureed potatoes, pureed carrots, and, for dessert, a pureed pumpkin puree with pureed chestnuts on top. When I am very old and in a nursing home, I will look back on this meal fondly. But now, not so much.

1981, New Haven, Connecticut
Much of my family has died, unexpectedly, from awful diseases and fateful occurrences: my mother from a brain tumor, my cousin Willa from breast cancer, another cousin from a car accident, my grandmother from a broken hip, my father from smoking five packs a day. Those of us who are still living are at my Uncle Henry’s house for the traditional Thanksgiving meal. My Aunt Liz is cooking from rote, undeterred by her galloping Alzheimer’s. We all sit around glumly forking at the stuffing and Uncle Henry begins reading the most ghastly poetry, stuff he’s written for the event. It is not so much poetry as a morbid recitation of terminal cancer symptoms in iambic pentameter. I want to go screaming into that good night.
1995 and 1996, Redding, Connecticut   
Michael is now devoted to AA.... 
...MORE

And speaking of J.M.W. Turner (for folks who don't obsessively remember every word that appears herein, it was November 21, 2016)...

Again from the Paris Review, this time November 24, 2014:

Sleep of the Just
by
You know how J. M. W. Turner tried to exhibit his work at the Royal Academy and the Royal Academy was all, Wow, your work is way too innovative and interesting and we can’t show it because it would threaten all our hidebound, bourgeois ideas and force us to reevaluate everything and make important societal changes? Yeah, well, I totally see their point. Once a year, anyway.

Because every November, all the food magazines and blogs start trying to bully us into to reinventing the wheel. Don’t be a fogey! they scream. What, you’re still eating turkey? HAHAHA. Well, if you insist on being a “traditionalist,” stuff that turkey with linguica and kale! Baste it with ramen! Douse it in pomegranate molasses! (All this is said in a vaguely threatening, SportsCenter-style cadence.) This isn’t your mom’s green bean casserole! You’re not even seeing those losers, are you, with their stupid political views and opinions about your love life? Surely you’re having some awesome no-strings Friendsgiving celebrating the new family you’ve chosen! Right? RIGHT?! SRIRACHA. SRIRACHA. SRIRACHA. 

Look. I get the market demands of the newsstand. You can’t just recycle the same stuff year after year. Nor do I mean to advocate a slavish adherence to tradition. In my family’s case, that would mean cleaning the dining room table off in a panic at the last minute, barring entrance to the rooms where we’ve stuck all the mess, then watching my mother stand in front of the digital meat thermometer with tears rolling down her cheeks....MORE 
"...and the Royal Academy was all, Wow, your work is way too innovative and interesting and we can’t show it...."
Mr Turner Recreating theRoyal Academy Show of 1832

Because that's just the way they spoke at the Royal Academy, back in the day.

The pic is from Christie's "Mr Turner: Recreating the Royal Academy Show of 1832"

Friday? Maybe some more Thanksgiving stories or a recipe or two.

Wednesday, November 27, 2024

BCA Research: «President Trump Is Going to Be Disciplined by the Bond Market»

I wonder if the vigilantes are going to hire Christopher (dossier) Steele's hookers (of pee-pee bed fame) to administer the discipline.
Wait, did I say that out loud?

From Neue Zürcher Zeitung's TheMarket.ch, November 15:

Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, warns that rising interest rates could stall the rally in equities. President Trump will focus on his true mandates and that does not necessarily mean a massive trade war. 

Deutsche Version

The election of Donald Trump as 47th President of the USA has electrified financial markets. The S&P 500 has reached an all time high, the dollar has strengthened significantly, and yields on U.S. Treasury Notes have risen. The Trump Trade is on.

Marko Papic believes that this is a knee-jerk reaction that could soon run out of steam. The chief strategist at BCA Research believes it would be wrong for investors to follow the script from 2016, when Trump was first elected. The President cannot afford to fuel inflation again. «The economy does not need another sugar boost,» says Papic.

In an in-depth conversation with The Market NZZ, which has been lightly edited, Papic explains what investors can expect from the second Trump Administration and where to find the best investment opportunities.

«Voters didn’t elect Trump to begin a massive trade war. 
Especially in the context of prices, as tariffs would increase 
price levels»: Marko Papic.
[climateer here: two points to mitigate against the worst outcome of tariffs that may not get enough coverage amidst facile (and fashion-forward) gloom-and-doom: 
1) If tariffs are high enough they will change consumer behavior and sourcing which is the goal of the exercise. 
2) The U.S. will see a strengthening of the dollar which by definition reduces the cost of imports. That being said there will be inflation in those goods that continue to be purchased from the countries getting tariffed. Solution: Buy Vietnamese!]
Financial markets have been on a tear since Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election. Equities are up, the dollar is up, bonds have sold off. What now?

It’s all going to depend on the trajectory of bond yields going forward. We’ve only had a few trading days since the election, and bond yields now hover around 4,4%. They went up from 3,6 to 4,3% very quickly since mid-September. If they continue to go higher from here, as the new Trump Administration takes shape, then equity markets will have to respond to that.

Equities seem to get a bit wobbly now that ten-year yields have reached 4,4%. How much more can they take?

It’s hard to say, but I think anything above 4,7 or 4,8% gets us into difficult territory. Looking into 2025, there is concern that Trump’s fiscal policy will be unsustainable from a budget perspective, there is concern that his policies will be inflationary, and there is concern that the Fed would have to change its rate cutting trajectory. There is also the question of whether the economy can sustain this rise in interest rates. Mortgage rates have already shot up. I’m particularly concerned about small companies, because they will have to refinance quite a bit of debt next year. The rally in small cap equities that we have seen since the election is, in my view, a trap.

What should investors do right now?

If you are a trader, if you like to spend your time trading, then God bless you, chase this rally. Momentum is king. If you’re an investor, on the other hand, then you have to start thinking about taking some profits off the table and think about what’s coming next. Valuations are high. The market is pricing in all the positives of a Trump presidency, and none of the negatives.

Equity markets believe Trump will be pro growth and pro tax cuts – all the things that equities like.

Yes, and all the things that bonds don’t like. And that’s a problem, because we are in a world where bonds and equities are positively correlated. The recent sell-off in bonds and simultaneous rise in equities diverges from a very clear correlation that existed for the past two years. Why does that matter? Because the world where bonds and equities are positively correlated is usually the world where there is underlying inflationary pressure. When bond yields rise too high, equities sell off. That’s the world we’ve been in for more than two years, and I don’t think we’re out of the woods in terms of inflation, especially if President Trump were to act on some of his proposals.

Will he?

I actually think Trump is going to modify his proposals to adjust to reality. He is going to be disciplined by the bond market. Much of what he has proposed in his election campaign would be inflationary and would add to economic growth, which is simply unnecessary right now. That’s why I think rising bond yields will force him to modify his proposals. There’s a big difference to the time when Trump first was elected in 2016. Back then, bond yields were not a constraint. They were rising in late 2016 and 2017, but they came from very low levels. When Trump started his first term, economic growth was anemic, inflation was no issue. Markets applauded his pro growth policies, voters wanted it. But today, is his mandate really to give the economy another sugar boost? Is his mandate to cut taxes? I don’t think so.

What is his mandate, then?

In my view, the mandate he obtained by winning the popular vote is built on two points: First, no more illegal immigration, Americans are done with that. Secure the borders, deport illegal immigrants. The second mandate is to curb inflation. Yes, inflation rates are coming down, which means prices are growing at a slower pace, but the increase in price levels over the last four years is still hurting many Americans. Those are his two mandates. Now, ironically, these two things are not good for growth in the short term. If he wants to curb immigration and inflation, we’ll have less economic growth. On top of that, he wants deregulation and a cutback in government employment, which will also dampen growth. These kinds of reforms will eventually lead to higher quality growth some years down the road, but in the short term they will act like bitter medicine.

And you say that it will be rising bond yields that will force Trump to pivot away from his more inflationary policy proposals?

Yes. The bond market will cause Trump to pivot away from pro-growth tax cutting policies towards more of the supply side reform type of policies. I think some of his economic advisors, think Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick or Elon Musk, would be very much in favor of that. I’m sensing that his team is itching to pivot away from fiscal profligacy.

 Let’s assume Trump will pivot towards fiscal restraint: What’s not to like for financial markets? After all, it’s pretty clear that the current path of fiscal policy is unsustainable....

....MUCH MORE

Related, our last visit to TheMarket.ch, November 14:

Jim Bianco: "It’s Time to Position the Portfolio for Rising Yields and a Stronger Dollar"

"Key Fed inflation gauge shows PCE 'going sideways'"

From Yahoo Finance, November 27:

The latest reading of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge showed price increases were flat in October from the prior month, raising questions over whether progress in getting to the central bank's 2% goal has stalled.

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out food and energy costs and is closely watched by the central bank, rose 0.3% from the prior month during October, in line with Wall Street's expectations for 0.3% and the reading from September.

Over the prior year, core prices rose 2.8%, in line with Wall Street's expectations and above the 2.7% seen in September. On a yearly basis, overall PCE increased 2.3%, a pickup from the 2.1% seen in September.

"Core PCE has been going sideways for the last couple of months," Paul Gruenwald, S&P Global Ratings global chief economist, told Yahoo Finance. "If you think the Fed is on a declining rate path, which we do, that's probably leaning toward the pause [cutting interest rates] camp."

Gruenwald added that the Fed won't be in a hurry to cut rates unless it sees a "more convincing decline" in core PCE.

Entering the release, markets have been debating how much further the Fed will cut interest rates over the next year. Minutes from November's Fed meeting released on Tuesday revealed some officials believe the Fed could pause cutting rates if "inflation remained elevated."

Recent data has added to that case. Earlier this month, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, showed prices in October posted an annual gain of 3.3% for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, the core Producer Price Index (PPI) revealed prices increased by 3.1% annually in October, up from 2.8% the month prior and above economist expectations for a 3% increase.

In a recent speech, Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman expressed concern that the Fed’s progress toward its 2% inflation goal has “stalled” and said the central bank should proceed "cautiously" when cutting interest rates....

....MUCH MORE

Reminder: The German Manufacturing Disaster Has Not Gone Away

 First up, from Deutsche-Welle, November 22:

Germany: Bosch to cut 5,000 jobs with car industry in crisis
The car parts manufacturer said some 3,800 of the layoffs are to be made in Germany. Bosch and other German firms are pushing to reduce costs in order to stay competitive in the international market.

German automotive supplier Bosch plans to lay off 5,000 employees, a spokeswoman said on Friday.

The planned job cuts come as German auto companies push to reduce costs in order to stay competitive in the international market.

What do we know about the job cuts at Bosch?

Bosch's spokeswoman said that some 3,800 of the job cuts are to be made in Germany.

She added that the exact number of layoffs will be negotiated in talks with workers' representatives.

In a separate statement, Bosch said it was having to make significant investments in new technologies.

"We must adapt our structures to the changing market environment and reduce costs sustainably to strengthen our competitiveness," Bosch manager Stephan Hölzl said.

The firm also pointed to overall stagnation in the market.

"Global vehicle production will stagnate this year at around 93 million units, if not decline slightly compared to the previous year," Bosch said.

Workers' council head decries plans as 'slap in the face'
According to Bosch, manufacturers need significantly fewer parts to make electric vehicles, also making the process less labor-intensive....

....MUCH MORE

And from Reuters, October 29:

German car industry transformation could cost 186,000 jobs by 2035, study finds

The transformation of the German car industry could lead to 186,000 jobs losses by 2035, of which roughly a quarter have already occurred, a study commissioned by the VDA auto industry association released on Tuesday showed.

The 46,000 jobs already lost between 2019 and 2023 were due mainly to the transition to electric vehicles, according to the study conducted by research institute Prognos.
In its report, the VDA points to the loss of competitiveness in Germany due to the high price of electricity, tax rates and increasing red tape....
....MORE

"The collapse of the ruble and the collapse in the Russian stock market"

The fall of the rouble has accelerated in recent days (higher is weaker):

 Chart Image

TradingView 

From 83 RUB to buy a buck in June to 110.28 last

From Pravda, November 27: 

The collapse of the ruble and the collapse in the Russian stock market

The ruble went into free fall. Two impulse phases of the ruble collapse: from August 27 to October 9, 2024 (+18.3%, if estimated by the growth of the yuan exchange rate, where there are still some market trades) and from November 12 to the current moment (over 9.2%), and from November 21 they went into free fall with acceleration. As a result, the yuan against the ruble has grown by almost 27% since August 27.

In terms of the aggressiveness of the collapse, the devaluation of the ruble even surpassed the sad events of mid-2023 (in intensity and scale over a comparable period).

In the modern history of currency trading, there have been only a few comparable or more dramatic episodes: at the beginning of 2023, the devaluation of the ruble against the yuan reached 28% in 65 trading days, but then there was a way out of the phase of extreme over-strengthening.

And so the list is short: Feb-Mar.22, Mar.20, Jan.16, Aug.15, Dec.14 and Feb.09 – 6 times in 20 years. In all cases, this was accompanied by: a crisis in the economy, a degradation of the balance of payments and/or a collapse in oil prices, and/or a powerful outflow of capital from non-residents, and/or sanctions and geopolitical aggravation.

Now there is still no formal crisis (on the contrary, the economy is growing above trend), the current account is expanding, oil is stable, non-residents are blocked or left in early autumn, geopolitics is no different from everything that was 2.5 years ago, and the new sanctions are not so terrible, but ... is something wrong here?....

....MUCH MORE

Meanwhile the MOEX index at the stock exchange is down 23% over the last six months.

Capital Markets: "Yen Jumps on Rate Hike Speculation"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The US dollar has a softer profile today. All the G10 currencies are higher, led by 1%+ surge in the yen amid heightened speculation of a rate hike next month, while the US 10-year yield is near 4.25% today, the lowest since the election. Although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand allows for another half-point cut after delivering the second one this year earlier today, the New Zealand dollar has popped up amid sell the rumor buy the fact type of activity. The euro and sterling are firm but holding below yesterday's highs. Emerging market currencies are mostly firmer today, but the Mexican peso continues to underperform. It is off about 0.25% and only the Russian ruble has lost more (~-3.2%).

The large equity markets in Asia Pacific were mixed. China, India, Australia, and New Zealand rose. Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea fell. The Stoxx 600 in Europe is lower for the second session, and US index futures are trading softer. Benchmark 10-year yields are slower. In Europe, you are looking at a 3-5 bp decline, with UK Gilts setting the pace. The 10-year US Treasury yield is off nearly five basis points as is the two-year yield. Lower rates and softer dollar are conducive for gold. The yellow metal is extending yesterday's recovery off $2600. It is straddling the $2650 area in Europe. A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has not had much impact on January WTI. It is little changed on the day, slightly below $69. It settled last week closer to $70..... 
....America
Given tomorrow's holiday, the US is releasing a ton of data today. The revisions to Q2 GDP are the least of it. October goods trade, durable goods orders, and personal consumption expenditures will investors and economists get a handle on the economic momentum at the start of Q4. Growth is expected to moderate this quarter to 2.0%-2.5% from 2.8% in Q3 and 3.0% in Q2. The 0.4% rise in consumption is solid even if a tick lower than September's 0.5% gain. Of course, the deflators will draw much interest but 1) due to the prior release of CPI and PPI, there is typically little surprise and 2) we already know that both the headline and core rates accelerated slightly. Recall that the base effect, which Fed Chair Powell discussed at the conclusion of the last FOMC meeting, will likely translate into a bounce here in Q4 (Q4 23, the PCE deflator rose at an annualized rate of less than 1% but then accelerated at a 4.4% annualized rate in Q1 24, which will make for an easier comparison next year)....

....MUCH MORE

"Dell Stock Tumbles As Sales Miss Estimates Despite 'Robust' AI Opportunity" (DELL)

In early pre-market trade the stock is down $17.37 (-12.25%) at $124.37. 

From Investor's Business Daily, 05:18 PM ET 11/26/2024:

Dell Technologies (DELL) stock tumbled late Tuesday after the tech hardware company reported mixed fiscal third quarter results. Earnings beat estimates while sales came up short despite strong growth from AI-related server sales.

Dell said in a news release that it earned an adjusted $2.15 per share on sales of $24.4 billion for the October-ended quarter. Analysts polled by FactSet projected the Round Rock, Texas-based company would post adjusted earnings of $2.06 per share on sales of $24.7 billion.

Revenue grew 10% while adjusted earnings increased 14% year-over-year.

On a call with analysts, company officials guided for sales of $24.5 billion at the midpoint of its range for its current January-ending quarter. That was below consensus analyst forecasts of $25.6 billion in sales for Dell's fiscal fourth quarter, according to FactSet.

On the stock market today, Dell stock fell more than 10% to 127.28 in after-hours action.

Dell Stock: AI Server Boost
Prior to earnings, Dell stock fell 1.7% in Tuesday trading. Shares have gained 87% this year, helped by Dell's position as a provider of servers to power artificial intelligence workloads.

Dell Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke said in the earnings release Tuesday that AI is "a robust opportunity for us with no signs of slowing down."....

....MORE

The stock is approaching the bottom of the gap from October 29/30; $122.07 - $125.45 at which point we would give it a rating of 'yummy'. Or maybe that's just pre-Thanksgiving anticipation.

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Tuesday, November 26, 2024

Indonesia Bows To China

 From the Australian Strategic Policy Institute's The Strategist, November 15:

Three concessions after three weeks: Prabowo leans China’s way

Indonesia’s new president, Prabowo Subianto, needed only three weeks in office to make three big concessions to China.

In a joint statement with President Xi Jinping in Beijing on 9 November, Prabowo acknowledged Chinese maritime claims that Indonesia had long rejected. Despite leading the most populous Muslim-majority country, he affirmed China’s right to deal with Xinjiang as it pleased. He also endorsed China’s vague vision of the geopolitical order, something that Indonesia has long been wary of.

Indonesia has long rejected China’s nearby territorial assertions in the South China Sea, arguing that they have no basis under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. A 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling against China, which declared its claims illegitimate, became the basis for Indonesia’s campaign against the nine-dash line.

That hasn’t deterred China. Rejecting the ruling, Beijing has persisted in seeking recognition of its claims, particularly from Southeast Asian nations. For years, Indonesia’s diplomats have challenged Beijing, but now the Prabowo-Xi joint statement has sparked fears that this may change.

It said the two nations had ‘reached important common understanding on joint development in areas of overlapping claims.’ The key point is that Indonesia thereby acknowledged China’s claim, giving them some legitimacy. The statement further mentioned an agreement to ‘establish an Inter-governmental Joint Steering Committee to explore and advance relevant cooperation’, indicating mutual interest in jointly exploiting resources in the sea.

The Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs later released a statement clarifying that Indonesia still did not recognise China’s nine-dash line. That won’t stop Beijing from using the joint statement as expressing Indonesia’s capitulation.

This has implications for Indonesia’s broader interests in the South China Sea disputes, including how Indonesia has framed itself as a non-claimant in the disputed waters.

As for Xinjiang, the joint statement affirmed it was an issue of ‘internal affairs of China’ and said that Indonesia ‘firmly supports China’s efforts to maintain development and stability in Xinjiang.’

While Indonesia has always recognised Beijing’s sovereignty over Xinjiang, the province has not previously been directly mentioned in a joint statement by the two countries. This contrasts with Jakarta’s solidarity with the Muslim world in opposing Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza.

The joint statement seemed to present some new enthusiasm from Indonesia for China’s Global Security Initiative and Global Civilization Initiative, two of three major Chinese initiatives, the third being the Global Development Initiative, that present a Chinese vision of the international order. Indonesia has been willing to support the Global Development Initiative because of potential economic benefits. But it has been reluctant to endorse the other two initiatives due to their vagueness and a concern that doing so may undermine its non-aligned position in world affairs....

....MUCH MORE

"Supreme Court to examine power of Congress to delegate authority"

Part of an ongoing series on some momentous changes in Washington D.C.

If you understand these changes there is money to be made in the interstices and at the intersection of power and responsibility.

From the Washington Post via MSN, November 23:

The Supreme Court announced Friday it will hear a pair of cases that will examine how far Congress can go in delegating powers to federal agencies, decisions that could chip away at the authority of the executive branch.

The cases explore whether Congress violated the Constitution when it allowed the Federal Communications Commission to gather fees to help pay for critical telecommunications service in communities that might not otherwise have it. 

Consumers’ Research, a free-market advocacy organization, and other plaintiffs are challenging the law, saying the setup runs afoul of the “non-delegation doctrine,” which forbids Congress from delegating its legislative powers to federal agencies or private entities unless it provides an “intelligible principle” that gives guidance on how those powers should be exercised.

“The statute delegates Congress’s revenue-raising and taxing powers to an unelected agency bureaucracy without clear and meaningful limitations,” the plaintiffs write in their filing.

The plaintiffs contend that violation was compounded when the FCC created an independent, nonprofit company, the Universal Service Administrative Co., to administer the program. They also say the program, which collects nearly $10 billion a year, is prone to waste and abuse.

Conservative groups and scholars who argue that executive agencies have grown too powerful have pushed for the expansion of the non-delegation doctrine to try to trim that authority and reset the balance of powers between the branches of government. 

The Supreme Court has sharply curtailed the power of federal agencies in a series of major rulings in recent terms. Most notably, the conservative majority on the court struck down last term a 40-year-old principle that requires courts to give wide latitude to federal agencies when they are implementing laws in areas where they have not been given explicit guidance by Congress.

The Chevron doctrine, as it was known, underpinned thousands of federal rules.

Some conservative groups have identified the non-delegation doctrine as the next frontier in the fight over administrative power.

The current case revolves around the Telecommunications Act of 1996, which expanded an earlier law requiring everyone in the United States to have access to critical telecommunications services. The law also mandated that all interstate telecommunications providers contribute funding to the goal of universal service....

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Or as Reuters puts it, November 25: 

First Chevron, now another arcane doctrine is ready for its closeup

America suddenly discovered the phrase Chevron deference when the U.S. Supreme Court decided last June to overturn longstanding precedent that required courts to bow to federal agencies in the interpretations of the laws they enforce.

Now nondelegation doctrine is poised to become the new Chevron.
 
You need some basics to understand what I’m talking about. Nondelegation doctrine is rooted in Article I of the U.S. Constitution, which empowers Congress to enact federal laws. The doctrine, broadly speaking, bars Congress from delegating that power to the executive branch — which, these days, means to federal agencies.

But that's not all there is to the nondelegation doctrine. A related constitutional principle known as private nondelegation doctrine holds that neither Congress nor federal agencies can authorize non-government entities to exercise governmental power. This doctrine has become a critical issue in constitutional challenges to private regulation of the securities and horse-racing industries, both of which are overseen by membership group wielding significant rulemaking, investigatory and enforcement power.

The Supreme Court has already agreed to hear a case raising nondelegation and private nondelegation issues, as my Reuters colleague John Kruzel reported on Friday.
The case involves a constitutional challenge to a law authorizing the U.S. Federal Communications Commission to levy fees from telecoms to broaden nationwide access to phone and internet services. The FCC relies on a private company to administer the multibillion-dollar fund.
 
A group led by conservative nonprofit Consumers’ Research persuaded the en banc 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals last July that, in combination, Congress’s delegation of taxing authority to the FCC and the FCC’s subdelegation of administrative authority to a private company is unconstitutional.
 
The U.S. Justice Department asked the Supreme Court in September to review the 5th Circuit decision, citing a split between the conservative appellate court and two other federal circuits, the 6th and 11th Circuits, that have recently sided with the government on the constitutionality of the FCC program.
 
The FCC case seems likely to focus on Supreme Court precedent allowing Congress to authorize federal agencies to implement federal statutes as long as lawmakers codify an “intelligible principle” to guide and limit agency power. The justices most recently endorsed that principle in 2019’s Gundy v. United States, which confirmed the constitutionality of the federal sex offender registry, although four justices signaled interest in Gundy in reinvigorating the nondelegation doctrine.
 
The private nondelegation doctrine seems to be a secondary issue in the FCC case — but it is at the heart of a different case that the Supreme Court is likely to agree to hear this term.
In that litigation, Texas and a plethora of horse-racing groups challenged the constitutionality of the federal statute in which Congress empowered a private entity, the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, to act under the auspices of the U.S. Federal Trade Commission to regulate the horse-racing industry.
 
The 5th Circuit ruled in July that the horse-racing authority was acting within constitutional bounds when it promulgated rules governing its members, because those rules had to be approved by the FTC. But the appeals court, splitting from two other federal circuits, also held that the private group’s enforcement power was unconstitutional under the private nondelegation doctrine because the horse-racing authority can conduct investigations, impose sanctions and bring lawsuits without consulting the FTC.
 
The Justice Department, the horse-racing authority and several challengers separately filed petitions asking the Supreme Court to reconsider different pieces of the 5th Circuit’s decision. Crucially, though, all of the petitioners seem to agree that the justices need to take a look at the constitutionality of the authority’s mandate from Congress in light of the 5th Circuit’s split with the 6th and 8th Circuits.
 
The issue for the justices, in other words, is probably not whether it will take a look at the private nondelegation issue but how broad its review will be.
Lurking in the background, moreover, is a ruling  on Friday from the D.C. Circuit in a similar constitutional challenge to Wall Street’s private regulator, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority....
....MUCH MORE

, open  If interested see also April 2023's "Is the Securities and Exchange Commission Unconstitutional?":
There was a purpose behind all our blather about dismantling the Administrative State last year. If interested see after the jump....

November 2023 -  "SEC's in-house enforcement powers at risk in US Supreme Court case" 

If they are doing the job that Congress or the Courts are supposed to be doing they should be at risk.
The whole issue comes down to the vast amount of power that has been abandoned to the executive branch. If interested see April 2023's:
"Is the Securities and Exchange Commission Unconstitutional?"
And a slightly different case from 2016: "Appeals Court Holds That SEC Administrative Law Judges Are Unconstitutional"

June 2024 - The Supreme Court's Other Business-Focused Decision: "SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION v. JARKESY ET AL."

Following on yesterday's post re: 'Chevron Deference': "Supreme Court delivers blow to power of federal agencies, overturning 40-year-old precedent"  the court also ruled in SEC v. Jarkesy, which, if you read some of the headlines will open the nation to rape, pillage and plunder by hedge funds. Or something:

In late November as the Court was about to hear the arguments in Jarkesy The Atlantic went with: "The Case That Could Destroy the Government"

CBS News: "Supreme Court strips SEC of key enforcement power to penalize fraud

New York Times: "The Supreme Court Neuters a Vital Public Watchdog"

Good grief, get a grip.

The decision was pretty straightforward: In many instances where regulators bring an  enforcement action, tribunals hear the case without juries. The Court said that is unconstitutional in some cases, that the Seventh Amendment guarantees a jury trial in a court.

And the American Academy of Arts & Sciences journal, Dædalus, Summer 2021 issue, tying all these cases together a few years ago, linked in 2022:

 Background On The Supreme Court's EPA/CO2 Ruling: The Administrative State

As part of  our look at what the Court actually decided in the decision released on June 30 we will be diving into the nuts and bolts of government bureaucracy, AKA the Administrative State, AKA The Swamp....

First though, a recapitulation of the introduction to last Thursday's "Supreme Court curbs EPA climate authority":

The headline is a bit of a mischaracterization. The Court ruled the EPA did not have the authority it claimed to have, a different situation from reining in an existing authority, and that the EPA could not simply adopt the Affordable Clean Energy rule; that the agency had exceeded its mandate under the Clean Air Act with the proposal  and that if Congress wanted the outcome of the Rule under CAA it would have to legislate same rather than have the administrative state simply write rules.....

A Very Expensive Fender-Bender

From LuxuryLaunches, November 21:

Is this the most expensive and ironic fender bender ever? In Austria, a McLaren Elva, Ferrari LaFerrari, Ferrari 812 Superfast, and Bentley Continental GTC collided, with the combined value of the cars exceeding $7.5 million!

https://luxurylaunches.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/four-supercars-crash-1170x687.jpeg

They say it pays to find humor in every situation, though it’s certainly hard to do so when your multi-million exotic car is in the middle of a pile-up on a mountain road. Though, with said accident having occurred near Pfunds, Austria, bordering Switzerland, it does give rise to the opportunity for some questionable puns....

....MUCH MORE

Monday, November 25, 2024

What’s driving decreasing gasoline consumption in China?

From the U.S. Energy Information Administration, November 20:

monthly China gasoline apparent demand

Data source: China National Bureau of Statistics, China General Administration of Customs, and Bloomberg L.P.
Note: We define apparent demand as refinery production plus imports minus exports.

Gasoline consumption in China has begun to fall in recent months amid increased sales of electric vehicles, slow economic growth, and population decline.

We estimate gasoline consumption in China averaged 3.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in August 2024, 14% less than in August 2023. The trend continued in September and October, which were down from the same months in 2023. From January through July of this year, more gasoline was consumed in China than the year before.

These trends led us to reduce our forecast growth in consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels in China in 2024 and 2025 in our Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). China’s growth of 0.1 million b/d in 2024 and 0.3 million b/d in 2025 will mostly be driven by petrochemical feedstocks instead of transportation fuels, reflecting increased petrochemical manufacturing in the country.

Combined sales of hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and battery electric vehicles (BEV) were more than half of total passenger vehicle sales in China in October 2024, according to Bloomberg data. This share of sales is up from 40% in October 2023.

China monthly passenger vehicle sales
Data source: China Automotive Technology and Research Center, accessed through Bloomberg L.P.
Note: Other includes compressed natural gas and fuel cell electric vehicles.

Although increased BEV and plug-in hybrid sales are only one factor moderating recent gasoline consumption in China, continued market penetration of these vehicles could weigh on the future of gasoline consumption.

In China, typically between 20 million and 25 million passenger vehicles are sold every year. In the future, depending on future sales trends and the number of internal combustion engines decommissioned, BEVs and hybrids could make up a large portion of the total vehicle fleet in China. Although we do not forecast consumption for individual petroleum products such as gasoline or diesel in countries other than the United States in our STEO, we factor in fundamental shifts that affect petroleum product consumption in our forecasts.

In China, increased sales of BEV and hybrid vehicles, a declining population, and slower economic growth have limited growth in gasoline consumption. Based on the latest forecast from Oxford Economics, China’s GDP is expected to grow by 4.1% in 2025, which is slower than the 6.7% GDP growth rate average from 2015 to 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. Oil consumption correlates with economic activity, and slower GDP growth could also be limiting gasoline consumption. In addition, China’s population has begun to decline, which may reduce total miles driven and gasoline consumption....

....MORE

"Washington Curtails Intel’s Chip Grant After Company Stumbles" (INTC)

Good. 
Being a foundry is not easy, better to back TSMC and perhaps a couple smaller American players.*

From the New York Times, November 24:

The Biden administration is reducing its award to the chip maker, partly to account for a multibillion-dollar military contract.

The Biden administration plans to reduce Intel’s preliminary $8.5 billion federal CHIPS grant, a move that follows the California-based company’s investment delays and broader business struggles.

Intel, the biggest recipient of money under the CHIPS Act, will see its funding drop to less than $8 billion from the $8.5 billion that was announced earlier this year, four people familiar with the grant said. They all spoke on the condition of anonymity because the final contract had not yet been signed. The change in terms takes into account a $3 billion contract that Intel has been offered to produce chips for the U.S. military, two of these people said.

The government’s decision to reduce the size of the grant follows Intel’s move to delay some of its planned investments in chip facilities in Ohio. The company now plans to finish that project by the end of the decade instead of 2025. The chip maker has been under pressure to reduce costs after posting its biggest quarterly loss in the company’s 56-year history.

The move by the Biden administration also takes into account Intel’s technology road map and customer demand. Intel has been working to improve its technological capacity to catch up to rivals like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, but it has struggled to convince customers that it can match TSMC’s technology.

Intel’s troubles have been a blow to the Biden administration’s plans to rev up domestic chip manufacturing. In March, President Biden traveled to Arizona to announce Intel’s multibillion-dollar award and said the company’s manufacturing investments would transform the semiconductor industry....

*Global Foundries was awarded $1.5 billion last week, maybe they could also use the money that Intel won't be getting. 
Our last comment on Intel and the CHIPS act was the outro from November 14's "Japanese government to invest $65bn to support domestic chip sector":
It's too bad that so much of the American money is going to Intel....

"Stanford expert on 'lying and technology' accused of lying about technology"

From SFGate, November 22:

In an bizarre twist, a Stanford University expert who studies misinformation appears to have created some of his own — while under oath.

On Nov. 1, Jeff Hancock, a well-known and oft-cited researcher who leads the Bay Area school’s Social Media Lab, filed an expert declaration in a Minnesota court case over the state’s new ban on political deepfakes. Republicans have sued to block the ban, arguing it’s an unconstitutional limit on free speech. Hancock defended the law in his declaration, explaining how artificial intelligence makes it easier to fabricate videos and discussed deepfakes’ psychological impacts. But he seems to have made an ironic mistake.

Hancock cited 15 references in his declaration, mostly research papers related to political deepfakes and their impacts. Two of the 15 sources do not appear to exist. The journals he cites are real, as are some of the two citations’ authors, but journal archives show no sign of either paper. The actual journal pages referenced by Hancock have different articles. SFGATE was unable to find the cited papers on Google Scholar, either. 

The two missing papers are titled, according to Hancock, “Deepfakes and the Illusion of Authenticity: Cognitive Processes Behind Misinformation Acceptance” and “The Influence of Deepfake Videos on Political Attitudes and Behavior.” The expert declaration’s bibliography includes links to these papers, but they currently lead to an error screen. 

Hancock’s court filing ended with a signed declaration under penalty of perjury that everything stated in the document was “true and correct.”

It would be an unusual mistake for a professor whose prominence stems from years of research and measured discussions of the field. His 2012 TED talk, called “The future of lying,” has about 1.5 million views....

....MUCH MORE

Last year there was Harvard's Francesca Gino:

https://www.science.org/content/article/honesty-researcher-facing-fraud-concerns-sues-harvard-and-accusers-25-million  

And in 2019 we saw:

Seton Hall Ethics Professor Arrested, Fired  

And a few other examples:

"How humans evolved to be ‘energetically unique’"

From the Harvard Gazette, November 18:

Metabolic rates outpaced ‘couch potato’ primates thanks to sweat, says new study

Humans, it turns out, possess much higher metabolic rates than other mammals, including our close relatives, apes and chimpanzees, finds a new Harvard study. Having both high resting and active metabolism, researchers say, enabled our hunter-gatherer ancestors to get all the food they needed while also growing bigger brains, living longer, and increasing their rates of reproduction.

“Humans are off-the-charts different from any creature that we know of so far in terms of how we use energy,” said study co-author and paleoanthropologist Daniel Lieberman, the Edwin M. Lerner Professor of Biological Sciences in the Department of Human Evolutionary Biology.

The paper, published Monday in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, challenges a previous consensus that human and non-human primates’ metabolic rates are either the same or lower than would be expected for their body size....
*****
...Using a new comparison method that they say better corrects for body size, environmental temperature, and body fat, the researchers found that humans, unlike most mammals including other primates, have evolved to escape a tradeoff between resting and active metabolic rates. 

Animals take in calories through food and, like a bank account, spend them on expenses mostly divided between two broad metabolic categories: resting and physical activity. In other primates, there is a distinct tradeoff between resting and active metabolic rates, which helps explain why chimpanzees, with their large brains, costly reproductive strategies, and lifespans, and thus high resting metabolisms, are “couch potatoes” who spend much of their day eating, said Lieberman....

.....MUCH MORE

"Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard are coming for the spooks"

From The Economist, Nov 24th 2024:

The president-elect’s intelligence picks suggest a radical agenda

OF DONALD TRUMP’s nominees to high office, few are more suspicious of the government they are pegged to join than Tulsi Gabbard. She warns of a “slow-rolling coup” by “the entire permanent Washington machine”, as she describes it in “For Love of Country”, a campaign book published in April. Her list of putschists is long, catholic and spook-heavy: “the Democratic National Committee, propaganda media, Big Tech, the FBI, the CIA, and a whole network of rogue intelligence and law enforcement agents working at the highest levels of our government”. Yet she may soon oversee some of that machinery. 

On November 13th Donald Trump chose Ms Gabbard as his nominee for Director of National Intelligence (DNI), a post that co-ordinates the work of the alphabet soup of 18 spy agencies in the country’s intelligence community. The news raised fears in the agencies and among America’s allies that intelligence will be distorted to suit Mr Trump’s preferences. And it heralds rifts within Mr Trump’s administration between hawks like Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio, nominated as national security adviser and secretary of state respectively, and radicals such as Ms Gabbard, who have argued for a softer line on China, Russia and Iran.

Mr Trump’s intelligence team is still taking shape. On November 12th he picked John Ratcliffe as CIA director. He is a former congressman who briefly served as DNI at the end of Mr Trump’s first term. At the FBI, Christopher Wray, the director, who was appointed by Mr Trump in 2017 to a ten-year term, seems likely to be replaced. In his first term, Mr Trump clashed repeatedly and frequently with the FBI and other agencies. He was angered by their reports that Russia had intervened on his behalf in the 2016 election. In 2020 he fired a string of top intelligence officials including Chris Krebs, the director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, who had declared that the 2020 election was not, as Mr Trump insisted, stolen.

That history suggests that Mr Trump and his appointees will seek dramatic reforms, even purges, in the spy agencies and at the FBI. The bureau, the premier federal law-enforcement agency, houses big counterintelligence and counterterrorism sections that collect and analyse intelligence. It is likely to be first in line for Mr Trump’s plans to neuter perceived enemies. Kash Patel, an inexperienced loyalist whom Mr Trump sought and failed to install as deputy CIA director in the dying days of his first administration, has been linked to Mr Wray’s job. “We will go out and find the conspirators, not just in government but in the media,” promised Mr Patel last December. “Whether it’s criminally or civilly…we’re putting you all on notice.”

The bureau might also be checked in other ways. Mr Trump and Ms Gabbard are both opposed to Section 702 of the Foreign Surveillance Intelligence (FISA) Act, which authorises electronic surveillance on American soil. It was renewed this year after a fierce debate in the Senate but will lapse in 2026. “The [FISA] court has proven to be a dependable rubber stamp for government requests,” argues Ms Gabbard (not inaccurately). If Mr Trump quashes it, the FBI will lose a major source of intelligence.

Other clues for Mr Trump’s plans might be found in the writings of those in his political orbit. Last year Project 2025, an initiative by the conservative Heritage Foundation think-tank to prepare for a Trump administration, published “Mandate for Leadership”. Dustin Carmack, a former aide to Mr Ratcliffe, contributed a chapter on intelligence. In May this year the America First Policy Institute published a similar volume, with a chapter on intelligence by Sam Faddis, a retired CIA officer who sought to overturn Mr Trump’s election defeat in 2020. Many of Mr Carmack’s proposed reforms are technocratic, such as efforts to improve intelligence sharing and streamline security clearances across agencies. He also expresses enthusiasm for covert action, in line with the views of traditional Republicans. Other proposals are more contentious....

....MUCH MORE


As noted in the intro to November 3's "60 Years Ago, Congress Warned Us About the Surveillance State. What Happened?":

It's time for another Church Committee. 

And probably the break-up of the CIA and FBI. The agencies have become little more than extortion rackets, gathering their bits and bytes of information not for the greater good of the country but to exert pressure and control on the people who pay their salaries and on the people's elected representatives.

Extortion, blackmail and coercion are what they do.They knew all about the Biden family corruption and used that information, not to warn the country but to feather their own nests and expand their power base. And that's just one example among dozens. It's a nasty business. As Senate [then]-Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Washington insider since 1980, said in January 2017:

“Let me tell you: You take on the intelligence community — they have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you.”

Possibly also of interest, August 31's "'The CIA And The Media' By Carl Bernstein"

New York Fed: Extend-and-Pretend in the U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market

This monster did not go away, we just don't talk about it.

From the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, October 2024:

1 Introduction
In the post-pandemic period, commercial real estate (CRE) has experienced rapidly deteriorating property values, driven by transitory forces such as the significant monetary tightening and structural ones such as the emergence of remote work (Gupta et al., 2023). Given the high leverage typically used in CRE deals, these devaluations often appear to be large enough to deplete the equity of owners and threaten losses for the lenders that hold the underlying mortgages. The discussions about the broader impact of distress in CRE for the financial sector and the economy at large have so far mostly focused on the direct effect of these losses on banks, with little attention directed to how banks manage their distressed CRE exposure.

In this paper, using detailed supervisory data, we document that banks have “extended-and-pretended” their distressed CRE mortgages in the post-pandemic period to delay the recognition of losses.1 Banks with weaker marked-to-market capital—largely due to losses in their securities portfolio since 2022:Q1—have extended the maturity of their impaired CRE mortgages coming due and pretended that such credit provision was not as distressed to avoid further depleting their capital.2 The resulting limited number of loan defaults hindered the reallocation of capital, crowding out the origination of both CRE mortgages and loans to firms. The maturity extensions granted by banks also fueled the volume of CRE mortgages set to mature in the near term—a “maturity wall” with the associated risk of large losses materializing in a short period of time.

Our conceptual framework centers on banks’ incentives to extend the maturity of their existing impaired loans to avoid writing off their capital. This incentive is particularly pronounced from 2022:Q1 onward as rapidly rising rates created large marked-to-market losses on securities held by banks, eroding their economic capital. While having a limited effect on regulatory capital, marked-to-market losses make banks more likely to be monitored by regulators and credit rating agencies and, ultimately, make them vulnerable to runs by uninsured depositors (Drechsler et al., 2024; Haddad et al., 2023).

Our empirical analysis relies on loan-level supervisory data on CRE mortgages by stress tested banks (FR Y-14Q Schedule H.2). CRE mortgages are primarily issued and held on balance sheet by banks (banks hold 50.7% of the $5.8 trillion CRE market as of 2023:Q4) and our granular data captures 26.8% of all CRE mortgages held by banks. We augment this data with supervisory loan-level C&I lending data (FR Y-14Q Schedule H.1), data for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) from Capital IQ and CRSP, and bank-level information (FR Y-9C). We use the latter to measure bank marked-to-market capitalization by (i) adding unrealized gains and losses on all securities to the regulatory capital ratio and (ii) calculating the distance between this measure and the bank-specific regulatory capital threshold.

Our empirical analysis is structured in five parts. First, as motivation, we use raw bank-level data to document that credit risk in the CRE market has substantially increased in the post-pandemic period but banks—weakly capitalized ones in particular—have been sluggish in assessing the associated losses. Specifically, stock returns of REITs that invest in CRE experienced a sizable drop since January 2022, especially in the office segment of this market, likely due to the emergence of remote work. In parallel, banks suffered significant marked-to-market losses as monetary policy tightening reduced the value of their securities holdings. Nevertheless, nonperforming loans and net charge-offs have remained low by historical standards, especially for weakly capitalized banks.

Second, we use our supervisory loan-level data to provide more granular evidence of the extend-and-pretend behavior by banks in their lending to CRE owners. We label a loan as distressed if the current net operating income (NOI) of the underlying property is lower than the NOI at origination.3 We show that undercapitalized banks disproportionately extend the maturities of these distressed loans and understate their default probabilities, leading to fewer realized defaults....

....MUCH MORE (51 page PDF)

And unless the Fed can manipulate rates lower while continuing to give the appearance of fighting inflation, that maturity wall is heading straight at the balance sheets of the banks carrying the paper.

Also, it's not just banks' exposure to CRE. There are ten years of loans to private equity that will have to be rolled at higher rates than they were issued at during the happy time, 2009 - 2022.