Tuesday, September 2, 2025

Capital Markets: "The Greenback Surges While Rates Jump"

Not jumping flamboyantly but achieving some verticality at the long end.

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex: 

Overview: A broadly stronger US dollar greets the returning North American participants from the long holiday weekend. The greenback has risen by 0.7% or more against most of the G10 currencies. The Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar have fared best and are off less than 0.2%. Sterling is bearing the brunt. It is off nearly 1.15%. The yen is down more than 1% amid a rise in the US (and European yields) and the resignation by the leaders of the LDP, leaving Prime Minister Ishiba even more isolated. Most emerging market currencies are also weaker. with the central European currencies down most. 

The pressure appears to be emanating from the bond market. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly 3-5 bp higher in Europe. The 10-year US yield, which has fallen by almost nine basis points over the past two weeks, is up around 5.5 bp to a little above 4.28%. The 30-year bond yields are also jumping 4-5 bp in Europe and the US. The jump in yields also appears to be taking a toll on equities. In the Asia Pacific region, among the large markets, only Japan, South Korea, and Singapore managed to rise. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off 0.65%-0.70%, while US index futures are trading 0.35%-0.60% weaker. Gold reached a record high (~$3508.75) in Asia Pacific turnover before pulling back to almost $3470 in early European activity. October WTI rose by about 0.5% last week and soared by almost 3% today to nearly $66, its best level since August 4. OPEC+ meets this coming weekend, but most expect it to hold production steady....

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