Saturday, December 30, 2023

"I Saw the Face of God in a Semiconductor Factory"

From Wired, March 21: 

As the US boosts production of silicon chips, an American journalist goes inside TSMC, the mysterious Taiwanese company at the center of the global industry.

[1]
A quintillion
miniature masterpieces 

I arrive in Taiwan brooding morbidly on the fate of democracy. My luggage is lost. This is my pilgrimage to the Sacred Mountain of Protection. The Sacred Mountain is reckoned to protect the whole island of Taiwan—and even, by the supremely pious, to protect democracy itself, the sprawling experiment in governance that has held moral and actual sway over the would-be free world for the better part of a century. The mountain is in fact an industrial park in Hsinchu, a coastal city southwest of Taipei. Its shrine bears an unassuming name: the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

By revenue, TSMC is the largest semiconductor company in the world. In 2020 it quietly joined the world’s 10 most valuable companies. It’s now bigger than Meta and Exxon. The company also has the world’s biggest logic chip manufacturing capacity and produces, by one analysis, a staggering 92 percent of the world’s most avant-garde chips—the ones inside the nuclear weapons, planes, submarines, and hypersonic missiles on which the international balance of hard power is predicated.

Perhaps more to the point, TSMC makes a third of all the world’s silicon chips, notably the ones in iPhones and Macs. Every six months, just one of TSMC’s 13 foundries—the redoubtable Fab 18 in Tainan—carves and etches a quintillion transistors for Apple. In the form of these miniature masterpieces, which sit atop microchips, the semiconductor industry churns out more objects in a year than have ever been produced in all the other factories in all the other industries in the history of the world.

Of course, now that I’m on the bullet train to Hsinchu, I realize that the precise hazard against which the Sacred Mountain offers protection is not to be uttered. The threat from across the 110-mile-wide strait to the west of the foundries menaces Taiwan every second of every day. So as not to mention either country by name—or are they one?—Taiwanese newspapers often euphemize Beijing’s bellicosity toward the island as “cross-strait tensions.” The language spoken on both sides of the strait—an internal waterway? international waters?—is known only as “Mandarin.” The longer the threat is unnamed, the more it comes to seem like an asteroid, irrational and insensate. And, like an asteroid, it could hit anytime and destroy everything.

Semiconductor fabrication plants, known as fabs, are among civilization’s great marvels. The silicon microchips fashioned inside them are the sine qua non of the built world, so essential to human life that they’re often treated as basic goods, commodities. They’re certainly commodities in the medieval sense: amenities, conveniences, comforts. In the late ’80s, some investors even experimented in trading them on futures markets.

But unlike copper and alfalfa, chips aren’t raw materials. Perhaps they’re currency, the coin of the global realm, denominated in units of processing power. Indeed, just as esoteric symbols transform banal cotton-linen patches into dollar bills, cryptic latticework layered onto morsels of common silicon—using printmaking techniques remarkably similar to the ones that mint paper money—turns nearly valueless material into the building blocks of value itself. This is what happens at TSMC....

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Ukraine is Bankrupt and Looking At Possible Hyperinflation

From Semafor, December 28:

Ukraine warns it is running out of money

NEWS
Ukraine is racing to cobble together money to pay for basic public services and benefits, with its deputy prime minister warning the country will soon be forced into “survival” mode without an influx of funding.

The country’s financial hole comes as more than $110 billion in aid from Europe and the U.S. has been held up by political infighting, with Kyiv saying it may have to delay pay for millions of public servants and pensioners unless Western assistance arrives soon.

Russian invasion plunged Ukraine into economic crisis

Source icon
Sources: 
Bloomberg, The Kyiv Independent, The New York Times

Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal this month sounded the alarm in a letter to international donors seen by Bloomberg, saying financing is urgently needed next month to help plug the $37.3 billion hole in Kyiv’s annual budget. Ukraine’s spending has almost doubled following Russia’s invasion in February 2022, with half of the country’s budget for the coming year set to go to the military. Amidst severe economic uncertainty, Ukrainians have been protesting for months to demand that local governments freeze spending on road repairs and parks and spend the money on weapons instead, The New York Times reported.

If attempts to raise cash fail, Kyiv may be forced to print money again
Source icon
Sources: 
Economichna Pravda, The Wilson Center, Bloomberg

Kyiv has been searching for ways to generate new sources of income since September, when Western economic support began to falter – and may be forced to turn to risky measures such as tapping its central bank for cash once again. So far it has increased a windfall tax on banks to 50% and transferred revenues from a 1.5% supplemental income tax from local to central government. It has also resumed tax inspections that were paused at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Even so, it is fiscally impossible for Ukraine to compensate for the lack of EU and U.S. aid, economist Yurii Gaidai told Economichna Pravda. As a last resort the Finance Ministry will consider stop-gap measures including raising tax revenues or devaluing Ukraine’s currency, the hryvnia, Bloomberg reported....

....MORE

It would take a while.to get to the dreaded "H" word, using the debatable definition of hyperinflation as greater than 50% per month inflation, but if the country has to go down the money-printing route for any length of time the end result is inevitable.

The other choice is to sell national assets to Western vulture investors.

Brutal.

Friday, December 29, 2023

Chips: "U.S. wants to contain China's chip industry. This startup shows it won't be easy"

First up, some news from Bloomberg about a company that was flat on its back due to sanctions.  December 28:

Huawei Sales Near $100 Billion in Year of China's Surprise Breakthroughs

  • The Chinese national champion’s sales bounced back this year
  • Huawei made its mark with chip advances in a turbulent 2023

Huawei Technologies Co.’s revenue surged 9% in 2023, capping a dramatic year for a Chinese technology powerhouse that challenged Apple Inc. and US sanctions with a surprise breakthrough in chip technology.

Sales jumped to more than 700 billion yuan ($98.7 billion), their fastest pace of growth in years thanks to a resurgent smartphone business and robust 5G equipment sales. On a quarterly basis, revenue climbed 27% to at least 243.4 billion yuan, based on Bloomberg’s calculations off the annual figure. That’s a sharp acceleration from the third quarter’s slight rise.

Huawei made a splash in 2023 after releasing a smartphone with a sophisticated made-in-China 7-nanometer Kirin processor, celebrated across the country over US restrictions intended to hobble the country’s tech industry. The revelation ignited debate in Washington over whether those curbs had failed, and what more needed to be done.

Huawei, written off as a top smartphone player after the US cut it off from overseas suppliers in 2019, is mounting a comeback. The Shenzhen-based conglomerate has emerged as a symbol of China’s resolve to thwart its geopolitical rival’s curbs. But Huawei itself warned of the dangers Washington and a volatile global economy will pose in 2024...

....MUCH MORE

And from Reuters via Investing.com the headline story, December 29:

Last year, a veteran Silicon Valley software executive took the helm of a startup in his native China, company records show. The startup told potential investors it would sell microchip design software that is mostly available from just a handful of large Western companies.

The coveted and highly specialized software tool, known by its initials of OPC, is used in the design of many microchips and is crucial to the design of advanced chips.

The production of advanced chips is one of the most contentious technological struggles now dividing the United States and China as they vie for economic and military supremacy. Washington is trying to curb China's access to sensitive microchip design tools.

The strategy behind the startup, dubbed SEIDA, shows why that containment effort is so challenging.

Before becoming chief executive of SEIDA, Liguo "Recoo" Zhang had lived in the United States long enough to secure permanent residency and purchase a Silicon Valley home, according to people familiar with his career and public records reviewed by Reuters.

He was employed by Siemens EDA, a U.S. unit of German industrial giant Siemens AG (OTC:SIEGY) that dominates the market in China for the very technology SEIDA told investors it planned to sell there. At least three other Chinese-born colleagues from Siemens EDA joined Zhang at SEIDA.

In a 2022 business-plan presentation prepared for investors, SEIDA called OPC "indispensable technology" and said it would offer the tool by early 2024. A Chinese version of the product, SEIDA said, would "break through the foreign monopoly," helping China become self-reliant in chip technology. SEIDA's ultimate goal, according to one slide: "Become OPC leader in the world."

The pitch attracted powerful Chinese investors.

One backer, recent corporate filings reviewed by Reuters show, is an investment arm of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, or SMIC. The state-backed, Shanghai-based company is China's leading maker of microchips. U.S. companies are restricted by Washington from providing technology to SMIC without a special license because its alleged work with China's military is considered a threat to American national security.

SMIC didn't respond to Reuters' requests for comment about the investment or the U.S. restrictions.

On a recent visit to SEIDA's headquarters in Hangzhou, in eastern China, a receptionist told Reuters that Zhang wasn't available for an interview. In an email after the visit, Peilun "Allen" Chang, SEIDA's chief operating officer, said the prospectus reviewed by Reuters is "obsolete."

The company's objectives have evolved, he wrote, adding that its backers are primarily "private institutions and individuals." Chang declined to specify how much capital SEIDA has raised or what products it now aims to pursue, saying its business plan remains "under continuous evaluation."

Siemens EDA, in a statement, confirmed Zhang's departure and that of three other colleagues. The company said it considers SEIDA "a potential competitor" but declined to comment further.

Reuters couldn't determine whether SEIDA has progressed toward selling OPC, short for optical proximity correction. The software is commonly employed for the design of many microchips and is part of a broader set of technologies known as electronic design automation, or EDA. The tools can help design chips that could advance strategic new technologies like artificial intelligence, quantum computing and hypersonic flight.

Since SEIDA's launch in October 2021, the U.S. government has increased efforts to curb China's access to EDA tools, developed and sold mostly by American companies.

Through export controls and other restrictions, Washington aims to prevent China from obtaining know-how that could allow it to match microchip advances by the United States and its allies, including Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by China and the world's leading chip manufacturer.

In email exchanges with Reuters, Chang said U.S. restrictions were one of the reasons Zhang and his colleagues left Siemens EDA for SEIDA to begin with. The restrictions, he wrote, limited their business opportunities at Siemens EDA, "diminishing scope for career advancement and involvement in key projects." .....

....MUCH MORE  

Things that make you say Hmmmm...

Wagner Group: "How Putin’s Right-Hand Man Took Out Prigozhin"

From The Wall Street Journal, December 22:

Nikolai Patrushev, a top ally of the Russian leader for decades, put in motion the assassination of the mutinous chief of the Wagner mercenary group

On the tarmac of a Moscow airport in late August, Yevgeny Prigozhin waited on his Embraer Legacy 600 for a safety check to finish before it could take off. The mercenary army chief was headed home to St. Petersburg with nine others onboard. Through the delay, no one inside the cabin noticed the small explosive device slipped under the wing.

When the jet finally left, it climbed for about 30 minutes to 28,000 feet, before the wing blew apart, sending the aircraft spiraling to the ground. All 10 people were killed, including Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner paramilitary group.

The assassination of the warlord was two months in the making and approved by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s oldest ally and confidant, an ex-spy named Nikolai Patrushev, according to Western intelligence officials and a former Russian intelligence officer. The role of Patrushev as the driver of the plan to kill Prigozhin hasn’t been previously reported.  

The Kremlin has denied involvement in Prigozhin’s death, and Putin offered the closest thing to an official explanation for the plane’s fiery crash, suggesting a hand grenade had detonated onboard.

None of that was true. 

Hours after the incident, a European involved in intelligence gathering who maintained a backchannel of communication with the Kremlin and saw news of the crash asked an official there what had happened.

“He had to be removed,” the Kremlin official responded without hesitation.

Collision course
Patrushev had warned Putin for a long time that Moscow’s reliance on Wagner in Ukraine was giving Prigozhin too much political and military clout that was increasingly threatening the Kremlin.

With tens of thousands of troops and lucrative gold, timber and diamond operations in Africa, Prigozhin managed a multibillion-dollar empire overseas. But back in Russia and on the battlefield in Ukraine, his public confrontations with the military’s top brass over weapons and supplies had put him on a collision course with the Kremlin.

When that boiled over into an outright mutiny in late June against Russia’s military commanders—with an armed march on Moscow by some of Wagner’s 25,000 fighters and tanks—Patrushev stepped in to ward off the biggest challenge yet to Putin’s more than two-decade rule. He also saw an opportunity to eliminate Prigozhin for good.

In interviews with Western intelligence agencies, former U.S. and Russian security and intelligence officials, and former Kremlin officials, The Wall Street Journal unearthed new details about the mutiny and murder of Russia’s most powerful warlord and the previously unknown role of Patrushev in reasserting Putin’s authority over an increasingly unstable Russia.

Through the power of state-controlled media and his own persona, Putin has unsettled the West with his image as a determined adversary who rules Russia alone. In fact, he is kept in power by a vast bureaucracy that has proven durable through deepening hostilities with the West and rising domestic divisions over the botched invasion of Ukraine.

Controlling the levers of that machine is Patrushev. He has climbed to the top by interpreting Putin’s policies and carrying out his orders. Throughout Putin’s reign, he has expanded Russia’s security services and terrorized its enemies with assassinations at home and abroad. More recently his profile has grown, backing Russia’s invasion, and his son Dmitry, a former banker, has been appointed agriculture minister and is touted by some as a potential successor to Putin.

Patrushev’s handling of Prigozhin has helped Putin claim control ahead of the presidential elections next year.

Former colleagues of Patrushev describe him as a sober bureaucrat who, like Putin, spurns the media, relying on daily readouts about the world from Russia’s security services. Like Putin, he joined the spy services in the 1970s, and stuck with the service through the collapse of the Soviet Union when other officers flocked to more lucrative jobs in Russia’s nascent private sector. 

Patrushev, 72, sees Russia locked in a struggle with the U.S., which he has said wants to steal Russia’s oil and minerals. He salts conspiracy theories into speeches and interviews. Earlier this year, he told Russia’s Izvestia newspaper that the U.S. is plotting to take over Russia because a massive volcanic eruption in Wyoming could soon make it uninhabitable. 

His role in some of the darker chapters of Putin’s presidency underscores the often deadly consequences for anyone who falls afoul of the Kremlin.

Russian officials and Patrushev didn’t respond to requests for comment.

U.S. officials said soon after Prigozhin’s death that preliminary government assessments found the crash was the result of an assassination plot.

Rise of the spy
In photos of him and Putin, Patrushev is a figure in the background, mostly unnoticed in an unremarkable dark suit. Daily, he travels in a Russian-made Aurus limousine to his spartan office in the presidential administration complex, steps away from the Kremlin, said former Kremlin officials. His phone calls are usually encrypted....

....MUCH MORE, they go deep.

"Another Putin Ally Falls From A Window"

The gravity in Russia must be different from what is found elsewhere.

From The Deep Dive (Canada), December 29:

Vladimir Egorov, a Tobolsk City Duma Deputy affiliated with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party, was discovered dead in the courtyard outside his home. The 46-year-old’s demise adds to a pattern of influential Russian figures meeting unclear fates.

According to reports from the Russian newspaper Kommersant, the Investigative Committee for the Tyumen Region confirmed Egorov’s death, emphasizing the absence of apparent signs of foul play. The outlet added that the committee “could not confirm the information about the circumstances of the deputy’s death” as they are “still conducting an autopsy.”....

....MUCH MORE

"U.S. and China race to shield secrets from quantum computers "

From Reuters Investigations, December 14:

The encryption guarding digital communications could someday be cracked by quantum computers. Dubbed 'Q-day,' that moment could upend military and economic security worldwide. Great powers are sprinting to get there first.

In February, a Canadian cybersecurity firm delivered an ominous forecast to the U.S. Department of Defense. America’s secrets – actually, everybody’s secrets – are now at risk of exposure, warned the team from Quantum Defen5e (QD5).

QD5’s executive vice president, Tilo Kunz, told officials from the Defense Information Systems Agency that possibly as soon as 2025, the world would arrive at what has been dubbed “Q-day,” the day when quantum computers make current encryption methods useless. Machines vastly more powerful than today’s fastest supercomputers would be capable of cracking the codes that protect virtually all modern communication, he told the agency, which is tasked with safeguarding the U.S. military’s communications.

In the meantime, Kunz told the panel, a global effort to plunder data is underway so that intercepted messages can be decoded after Q-day in what he described as “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks, according to a recording of the session the agency later made public.

Militaries would see their long-term plans and intelligence gathering exposed to enemies. Businesses could have their intellectual property swiped. People’s health records would be laid bare.

“We are not the only ones who are harvesting, we are not the only ones hoping to decrypt that in the future,” Kunz said, without naming names. “Everything that gets sent over public networks is at risk.”

Kunz is among a growing chorus sounding this alarm. Many cyber experts believe all the major powers are collecting ahead of Q-day. The United States and China, the world’s leading military powers, are accusing each other of data harvesting on a grand scale.

The director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Christopher Wray, said in September that China had “a bigger hacking program than every other major nation combined.” In a September report, China’s chief civilian intelligence agency, the Ministry of State Security, accused the U.S. National Security Agency of “systematic” attacks to steal Chinese data.

The National Security Agency declined to comment on China's accusation.

More is at stake than cracking codes. Quantum computers, which harness the mysterious properties of subatomic particles, promise to deliver breakthroughs in science, armaments and industry, researchers say. (See related story.)

Opinion is divided on the expected arrival of Q-day, to be sure. It’s still relatively early days for quantum computing: So far, only small quantum computers with limited processing power and a vulnerability to error have been built. Some researchers estimate that Q-day might come closer to the middle of the century.

No one knows who might get there first. The United States and China are considered the leaders in the field; many experts believe America still holds an edge.

As the race to master quantum computing continues, a scramble is on to protect critical data. Washington and its allies are working on new encryption standards known as post-quantum cryptography – essentially codes that are much harder to crack, even for a quantum computer. Beijing is trying to pioneer quantum communications networks, a technology theoretically impossible to hack, according to researchers. The scientist spearheading Beijing’s efforts has become a minor celebrity in China....

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"The Business of Extracting Knowledge from Academic Publications"

From The Seeds of Science journal:

This article was originally posted on December 7th, 2021 on Markus’ website.

TL;DR: I worked on biomedical literature search, discovery and recommender web applications for many months and concluded that extracting, structuring or synthesizing "insights" from academic publications (papers) or building knowledge bases from a domain corpus of literature has negligible value in industry.

Close to nothing of what makes science actually work is published as text on the web

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdfe5ea45-d608-49de-b57e-bca8ed022720_1338x938.png

Here’s the outline:

  1. The Business of Extracting Knowledge from Academic Publications

    1. Psychoanalysis of a Troubled Industry

    2. My Quixotic Escapades in Building Literature Search and Discovery Tools

    3. Fundamental Issues with Structuring Academic Literature as a Business

      1. Just a Paper, an Idea, an Insight Does Not Get You Innovation

      2. Contextual, Tacit Knowledge is not Digital, not Encoded or just not Machine-Interpretable yet

      3. Experts have well defined, internalized maps of their field

      4. Scientific Publishing comes with Signaling, Status Games, Fraud and often Very Little Information

      5. Non-technical Life Science Labor Is Cheap

      6. The Literature is Implicitly Reified in Public Structured Knowledge Bases

      7. Advanced Interactives and Visualizations are Surprisingly Unsatisfying to Consume

      8. Unlike other Business Software, Domain Knowledge Bases of Research Companies are Maximally Idiosyncratic

      9. Divergent Tasks are Hard to Evaluate and Reason About

    4. Public Penance: My Mistakes, Biases and Self-Deceptions

    5. Onwards

Psychoanalysis of a Troubled Industry....

....MUCH MORE

Last week's visit to Seeds of Science was:

"The Economics of Time Travel "

For Sale: Single Family Home, Upper Bracket

Palm Beach Florida

https://static2.mansionglobal.com/production/media/listing_images/66a6045d0b9e8bfd2b4706939dffb5ed/medium_ee6277f2c8cea8d72e90baecb7994c.jpg

Here's the listing information and photo gallery at Mansion Global.

"Treasuries Tumble After $1 Trillion Reverse Repo Drains $190BN In Liquidity, Index Change"

Expounding on and contextualizing the earlier Bloomberg story "Repo Benchmark Hits All-Time High in Volatile Funding Market".

From ZeroHedge, December 29:

Earlier today, when discussing the sudden spike in the SOFR rate to an all time high 5.40% and which dragged the SOFR-Fed Funds spread to the highest since the March 2020 repo crisis...

... we said that "two factors are the likely culprits: the year-end liquidity crunch, and the recent sharp increase in the Fed's reverse repo facility, which has increased from a multi-year low of $683 billion on Dec 15 to yesterday's $830 billion, and which STIR strategists expect will shoot up above $1 trillion in today's final for 2023 reverse repo operation as a whopping $300+ billion in short-term liquidity in pulled from markets in just days."

Moments ago that's precisely what happened when the NY Fed revealed that in the final reverse repo operation of 2023, 102 counterparties parked a whopping $1.018 trillion at the Fed in the now traditional year-end window dressing operation (yielding 5.30% or 10bps below the record high SOFR rate). This means that, as we speculated, over $300 billion in reserves had been drained by this operation in the past two weeks alone.

The flood of demand at the operation, which started at 12:45pm ET and whose results were announced at 1:15pm was likely leaked among the participants who were bracing for such an outcome, one which also explains the repricing of risk lower for much of this morning.....

....MORE

This is not the main event, actually more of a plumbing issue. As we said in December 20's "Spike in US overnight lending rates awakens fears of money market strains":
The next two months are going to get very interesting in Fedland and the money markets, we'll have more after the holidays. 

ZeroHedge ends their post by writing: 

....The flip side to all this, as noted earlier, is that on Jan 2 reverse repo is almost guaranteed to plunge back to $700BN or lower, substantially boosting system liquidity with a flood of reserves, a daily liquidity tango back and forth which will continue until some time in late March when the reverse repo facility is finally drained and the real funding squeeze can begin.

"Françoise Bettencourt Meyer: L'Oréal heiress first woman to amass $100bn fortune"

From the BBC, Dec 28:

L'Oréal heiress Françoise Bettencourt Meyers has become the first woman to amass a $100bn (£78.5bn; €90.1bn) fortune, according to a ranking of the richest people in the world.

The French beauty empire founded by her grandfather is on track for its best stock market performance in decades.

L'Oréal shares rose to a record high in Paris on Thursday.

The firm has seen its sales rebound after the pandemic, when people under lockdown used less makeup.

The net worth of Ms Bettencourt Meyers, aged 70, crossed $100bn on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, making her the 12th richest person in the world.

She is still a distance away from French counterpart Bernard Arnault, who was second on the list with a net worth of $179bn. Mr Arnault is the founder of LVMH, the world's biggest luxury group, which owns a portfolio of high-end brands including Fendi and Louis Vuitton....

....MUCH MORE

"Repo Benchmark Hits All-Time High in Volatile Funding Market"

From Bloomberg, December 29:

  • SOFR fixed at record of 5.40% on Dec. 28, from 5.39%: NY Fed
  • General collateral repo now trading around 5.50%: ICAP

A key reference rate connected to overnight repurchase agreement transactions rose to the highest since the benchmark was introduced more than five years ago.

As volatility returned to the funding markets ahead of year-end, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate rose to an all-time-high of 5.40% as of Dec. 28, up from 5.39% a day earlier, Federal Reserve Bank of New York data published Friday show. That’s the highest fixing since the benchmark made its debut in April 2018. 

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Pressure in US short-term interest rates abated Friday following several days of year-end funding scarcity.

The rate on overnight general collateral repurchase agreements — a key metric for US funding markets — first traded at 5.625% at the open on the final trading day of December before dropping to 5.45%, according to ICAP. It has since climbed back to 5.50%. But that’s still lower than where repo rates for Dec. 29 were trading during the prior session.

Overnight rates typically move higher at the end of the quarter as some dealers curb activity in money markets to shore up their balance sheets. Traders have been on alert for additional pressure after repo rates surged last month following a sharp rally in US Treasuries....

....MORE

As we said in December 20's "Spike in US overnight lending rates awakens fears of money market strains":
The next two months are going to get very interesting in Fedland and the money markets, we'll have more after the holidays.

Very related:

June 27, 2022: "The Federal Reserve's Explanation Of What Happened In The Money Markets In September 2019"

April 27, 2023: "Institutional Risk Analyst: The U.S. Banking System Has $5 Trillion Of Festering QE/QT Losses To Get Through"

Chartmeister Tim Knight Laments Buying A Tesla (TSLA)

But mostly in an opportunity-cost sort of way.

From his platform, Slope of Hope, December 27:

The Self-Driving Experience

I first wrote about Tesla – – – a car very few people had heard of at the time – in March of 2013 here on Slope. The post was simply an examination of my experience of buying my Tesla Model S and my impressions of it (which were extremely positive). I’ll just mention that the $90,000 I put into the car would be worth $9,000,000 today if I had simply bought TSLA at the time instead, but, umm, let’s not go there. Suffice it to say that my gushing, glowing over-the-top review of Tesla was spot-on, and that the company has been insanely successful.

Thus, being such an early adopter, it’s rather odd that only now would I be getting into the whole full self-driving thing, but I have an excuse. My car was incapable of it. The hardware was too old.

That all changed Christmas Eve. We picked up our second Tesla (and ditched our Lexus), a brand new dual motor Model Y with the Full Self Driving feature. Unlike my super-long review mentioned above, I just wanted to say a few words about my impressions of FSD, since I’ve logged, gosh, about 15 miles of it under my belt so far.

In a nutshell, it feels kind of janky. You can definitely sense the decision-making going on, and it is “chunked” in such a way that a human doesn’t really drive. I have had to intervene a number of times, because I didn’t feel safe, even though it probably would have been fine. But I’m not into “probably” when it comes to being in a moving car.

A few oddities I’ve encountered so far in my very, very brief experience:....
****
....I will hasten to make an important distinction. The public FSD is version number 11. The one whose foundation my beloved boy created is 12, and it’s fundamentally and utterly different. I haven’t driven it, nor can I, but when it comes out, I look forward to feeling just how different it is and writing my reflections on it when that time comes.....

....MORE, including the oddities.

Here are a couple of his recent communiqués:
December 28
Arms Race

Up, up, and away! Arm Holdings is growing to the sky! Why not, eh? It’s not like they have ever made a penny of profit or anything.

And:

Bond Rally Over

"Intel CEO: Nvidia Got 'Extraordinarily Lucky' in Dominating the AI Market" (NVDA; INTC)

From ExtremeTech, December 20:

If it hadn't been for that meddling company, Intel would be rich by now! 

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger has been in the news lately, as he just finished launching the company's next-generation CPUs for both client and server. As part of his recent press tour, he sat down with the students of MIT's engineering school to discuss the state of the semiconductor industry. In his comments, he made news by stating Intel could have been leading the AI industry these days, but instead, it's Nvidia—only because the company got lucky.

Gelsinger's comments came in response to a professor who asked what Intel was doing along the lines of AI hardware. This query prompted Gelsinger to recap Intel's ill-fated history with GPUs and "throughput computing" (as opposed to scalar), where he noted that when Intel pushed him out of the company 11 years ago, it also cancelled its discrete GPU project named Larrabee. According to Gelsinger, if the company had stuck with that project, it would be Intel at the apex of the AI industry right now. Instead, Nvidia finds itself at the helm, which Gelsinger says results from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang getting "extraordinarily lucky."

He argues that Nvidia was always focused on graphics, which is correct since it was always a gaming company that eventually branched out into AI and data centers. Gelsinger notes that the company didn't even want to support its first big AI project, as you needed a supercomputer to run the big data sets they were using. While Nvidia slowly focused on "throughput computing," Intel did nothing for 15 years. When Gelsinger returned to the company in 2021, he immediately corrected this mistake by restarting the project, which we now know as its Arc graphics line of GPUs....

....MUCH MORE

Also at ExtremeTech (Dec. 22):

Nvidia Engineer Responds to Intel CEO Saying It Got Lucky With AI Dominance
The employee, who worked at both Intel and Nvidia, says vision and execution are the reasons for its supremacy, not luck.... 

I think I got the wrong Ex Uno Plures

I wanted to stop by Zoltan Pozsar's new shop and was merrily clicking away until I realized

Subjectivity versus Delusions, by Jack Dawkins (2014). Contrasting multiples’ subjective experiences with clinical delusions connected with thought disorders (eg, schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder) and manic episodes in bipolar disorder.

probably wasn't Zoltan's latest missive to his clients.

Here is Mr. Pozsar's $30K per year subscription platform.


Thursday, December 28, 2023

Commodities: "Saffron supplies dry up as climate change shrivels Iran’s ‘desert gold’"

From the Financial Times, December 25:

Extreme weather has halved production in the biggest supplier of the world’s most expensive spice 

The city of Torbat-e Jam is famed for the acres of colourful crocus fields that yield one of Iran’s most prized exports: saffron. But for Reza, a local farmer heaving bags of the orange-red spice into the city’s bustling spice exchange, this year has been a disaster.

“My family harvested only 900kg this season, down from 1,500kg,” he said, blaming bad weather for decimating his precious crop.

More than nine-tenths of the world’s saffron comes from Iran. It is known as “desert gold” due to its ability to thrive in drier climates and prized for its powerful aroma, rich flavour and deep colour.

But changing weather patterns and water shortages are having a dramatic effect on the industry, according to producers and traders, leading to significant falls in yields that have pushed the price of the world’s most expensive spice to fresh highs.

Growers in the Khorasan region that includes Torbat-e Jam said this year’s yields would be less than half those of 2022. “Total production is expected to fall to about 170 tonnes from nearly 400 tonnes,” said Ali Shariati-Moghaddam, chief executive of Novin Saffron, a leading Iranian producer and exporter.

Mojtaba Payam-Asgari, a director at the Torbat-e Jam saffron exchange, said a freezing winter followed by a dry spring and summer temperatures that peaked at 50°C had a devastating effect on the region in north-eastern Iran close to the Afghanistan border. “All 2,000 local surface wells went completely dry,” he said.

Experts warn that such extremes are not a one-off but the result of climate change that is altering weather patterns around the world.

“Iran is more vulnerable than the global average, especially in arid and semi-arid areas [where saffron is grown],” said Mohammad Darvish, an Iranian environmentalist. “Rainfall is declining, and evaporation and temperatures are soaring,” he added.

The price of premium saffron has surged as a result, to $1,400 per kilo domestically, double what it cost last year. The same amount can be $1,800 overseas, according to suppliers....

....MUCH MORE

In March of 2019 we had a similar story but with a crazy twist:

Commodities: The World's Most Valuable Spice May Be In Terminal Decline
This article was published February 13, that is, it was written before the Pakistani terrorists hit India on one border and Iran on the other*, which just reinforced a major point of the story....

Consulting our second-favorite source of long price-series, Gregory Clark's


The paper constructs an annual price series for English net agricultural output in
the years 1200-1914 using 26 component series: wheat, barley, oats, rye, peas,
beans, potatoes, hops, straw, mustard seed, saffron, hay, beef, mutton, pork,
bacon, tallow, eggs, milk, cheese, butter, wool, firewood, timber, cider, and
honey. I also construct sub-series for arable, pasture and wood products. The
main innovation is in using a consistent method to form series from existing
published sources. But fresh archival data is also incorporated. The implications
of the movements of these series for agrarian history are explored.

we see the first appearance of saffron prices in the year 1265 at 11.09 shillings/lb.

That same year Clark gives a price for wheat of 0.47 shillings/bushel so saffron was exceedingly expensive: one lb. of saffron costing as much as 23.6 bushels of wheat.

That's on page 36 of the 109 page PDF.

Fortunately for saffron lovers the price dropped to 4.39 shillings/lb. [12 oz., see below] in the year 1286.

The next big price move was from 4.00 shillings/lb. in the year 1348 to 18 shillings/lb. in 1351 which sure looks like the signature of the Black Death.

If one is interested, the big daddy of price series' is "A History Of Agriculture And Prices In England, From The Year After The Oxford Parliament (1259) To The Commencement Of The Continental War (1793)"
—J. E. Thorold‐Rogers, 7 volumes, 1866-1887.

Thorold-Rogers points out that saffron was cultivated in England and among other fun facts:

  • Page 375  
Saffron was largely cultivated in England, especially in the south-east, but it will be convenient as before to deal with this article when comment is made on spices.
  • Page 659

    Saffron. It is convenient to deal witji this article here, though it was not unfrequently of English growth, as the accounts specify. This drug or spice is nearly as common in the accounts as pepper is, I have estimated it by the apothecaries' pound of twelve ounces, by which, as the internal evidence of the entries proves, it was always sold. Our ancestors believed that the drug was a protective or prophylactic against the plague, and probably the price rose and fell as those who could purchase the article were alarmed at the contingency of a visitation from the deadly and dreaded disease which was from time to time endemic in England after the year 1349. I cannot, however, trace such an cflTcct on the price of saffron during the years 1477-8-9, i486, 1508, 1521. 1545. 1555-6. "577. and 1579, io each of which years some one account or the other (see Notes, Political and Social, u u 3

  • Page 660

    The price of saffron, before the general rise occurred, s highest in 1531-40, one of the decades in which foreign spico are so dear. Saffron was never, I imagine, imported fnw the East. But it doubtlessly was from south-eastern Europe and may have been indirectly affected by any cause Kbid made other spices dear. It does not rise in price to an)tliii| like the same extent, after 1541, that other articles do, ti increase in money value being under fifty per cent. NordM it seem to have been so extensively used in later times.

  • Page 660

    Saffron was grown in England, especially in the eastcR counties, Harrison tells a story to the effect that in one yol there was an exceedingly plentiful crop of the article, and tMt the growers, embarrassed by abundance, vented their discontett in a coarse and profane comment, and that thereupon tb^ were visited with a general scarcity of the article. I haiB found saffron designated as English in 1467, and bought ^ parently at a cheap rate. In 1557 some is bought which il designated as best, and in 1499 the Grantchcstcr safTrcnground, belonging to King's College, is let at a rental i 28j. 4^. a year. This must have been a plot which "tm stocked with the bulbs. It is very probably the case that th cheaper saffron was of English growth. I find no infonnatioi as to the origin of foreign supplies.

So perhaps the thing to do is for the green of thumb to get-a-planting and see if soil and climate are still agreeable to British saffron, 758 years after it first showed up in the price records.

"Dollar Is Set for Worst Year Since 2020"

If the Fed wants to support the banks by hinting at/or bringing interest rates down (thus increasing the value of the bank's Treasury and Agency paper) they have to let the dollar go. No one wants to bid for a currency if interest rates in other currencies are (risk-adjusted) higher.

And the weaker dollar wouldn't be so bad if the U.S. export economy had grown at the same rate as the internally focused economy. But it didn't. As the rest of the economy grew, manufacturing just flatlined.

The other little factoid about the weaker dollar is the flip side of the above, imports become more expensive, thus adding inflationary pressure at the same time the balance of trade, even on flat unit volume, gets worse.*

From Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, December 28:

The dollar is poised for its worst year since the onset of the pandemic as Wall Street bets the Federal Reserve is set to lower interest-rates after safely reining in prices.

After being whipsawed by false starts calling for the end of the Fed’s rate hiking regime, a Bloomberg gauge of the greenback is down nearly 3% since January in the steepest annual drop for the US currency since 2020.

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/6Y5N2IHfnN8rCvYDSK3XRw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTU0MDtjZj13ZWJw/https://media.zenfs.com/en/bloomberg_markets_842/8c2de9ba53e7ed67daee767ada9dd51b

Much of the decline materialized in the fourth quarter on growing wagers that the Fed will sharply loosen policy next year as the US economy slows. That dents the dollar’s appeal as other central banks may keep their rates higher for longer.

Swaps traders are now factoring in Fed rate cuts of at least 150 basis points with the first cut coming as soon as March. That’s up from less than 100 basis points in mid-November and double what policymakers penciled in at their most recent meeting. Among speculative traders, dollar positioning has become all the more bearish since the Fed’s December meeting.

Read more: Shorting the Dollar Is Gaining Favor After Fed’s Great Pivot

“Markets are positioned for this ‘Goldilocks’ scenario where the Fed will cut rates enough to stimulate the economy without reigniting inflation pressures,” said Amanda Sunstrom, a fixed income and FX strategist at SEB AB in Stockholm. “That’s driving the dollar performance.”....

*From TradingEconomics (also on blogroll at right):
United States Balance of Trade
The US trade gap widened slightly to $64.3 billion in October 2023, the highest in three months, compared to a downwardly revised $61.2 billion in September and forecasts of $64.2 billion. It reflects an increase in the goods deficit of $3.5 billion to $89.8 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.4 billion to $25.5 billion. Total exports went down 1% to $258.8 billion, led by gem diamonds, pharmaceutical preparations, jewelry, passenger cars, other automotive parts and accessories, trucks, buses, and special purpose vehicles and travel. On the other hand, sales rose for organic chemicals, nonmonetary gold, transport and financial services. Meanwhile, imports edged up a meager 0.2% to $323 billion, prompted by computers, drilling and oilfield equipment and travel while purchases of passenger cars went down. source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) 

Market Commentary From The U.K.

The last three months of DJIA futures:

https://charts2-node.finviz.com/chart.ashx?cs=m&t=@YM&tf=d&s=linear&ct=candle_stick&tm=d&r=&sf=2

FinViz (also on blogroll at right)

And a cover of Jackie Wilson's "Higher and Higher" by the  Ukulele Orchestra of Great Britain (while in self-isolation):



note: we drag Mr. Wilson out to reflect market optimism not as a predictive tool.

"Climate tech is back—and this time, it can’t afford to fail"

For some reason what comes to mind is the prayer of the busted speculator:

"Please Lord, just one more bubble."

From MIT's Technology Review, December 2, 2023:

A decade after the high profile bust of cleantech 1.0, venture-backed firms are again flourishing. We need them to succeed. Will they?

Lost in a stupor of déjà vu, I rang the intercom buzzer a second time. I had the odd sensation of being unstuck in time. The headquarters of this solar startup looked strangely similar to its previous offices, which I had visited more than a decade before. The name of the company had changed from 1366 Technologies to CubicPV, and it had moved about a mile away. But the rest felt familiar, right down to what I had come to talk about: a climate-tech boom. 

A surge in cleantech investments, which had begun in 2006 with the high-profile entry of some of Silicon Valley’s leading venture capitalists, was still going strong during my first visit, in 2010—or at least it seemed to be. But a year later, it had begun to collapse. The rise of fracking was making natural gas cheap and abundant. US government funding for clean-energy research and deployment was falling. Meanwhile, China had begun to dominate solar and battery manufacturing. By the end of 2011, almost all the renewable-energy startups in the US were dead or struggling to survive.  

The list of eventual casualties included headline grabbers like the solar-cell maker Solyndra and the high-flying battery company A123, as well as numerous less well-known startups in areas like advanced biofuels, innovative battery tech, and solar power. How, I was wondering, had CubicPV survived when nearly all its peers had failed?


Ushering me into the conference room (was that the same photo of a solar panel hanging on the wall that I had seen a decade before?), Frank van Mierlo, who is still the CEO, seemed almost giddy. And why not? After more than 10 years in photovoltaic limbo, with few opportunities to scale up its process for making the silicon wafers used in solar cells, the venture-backed company had suddenly seen its fortunes turn around. 

The excitement around cleantech investments and manufacturing is back, and the money is flowing again. The 2022 US Inflation Reduction Act, which provides strong incentives for US domestic solar manufacturing, changed everything, says van Mierlo. As of this summer, some 44 new US plants had been planned, providing CubicPV with a huge potential demand for its silicon wafers. 

Call it cleantech 2.0. In recent years, there has been a huge increase in public and private spending, both in the US and elsewhere, on technologies and infrastructure to address climate change. A recent analysis estimates that total green investments reached $213 billion in the US during the 12 months beginning July 2022. Most of that spending is allocated to building sources of renewable energy, such as wind or solar, as well as to supporting battery and EV manufacturing and creating green hydrogen infrastructure. And the enormous amount of money is creating potential opportunities for the next generation of technologies to feed the expanding markets.

For startups like CubicPV, this means that after years of little market demand, the appetite for its products is suddenly almost insatiable. The company is designing a billion-dollar plant to make the silicon wafers needed to feed the rapid expansion in US solar production. What’s more, a bigger solar manufacturing base could eventually provide the startup with a lucrative future market for its next innovation: a new type of solar panel that is far more efficient at capturing sunlight than conventional silicon ones.

Silicon Valley and venture capitalists everywhere have fallen in love with the virtues and the promise of new catalysts and electrodes. Innovations in solar cells no longer seem like a lost cause. Startups are boasting radical new technologies for energy storage and carbon-free processes for making chemicals, steel, and cement. Investors are risking billions on scaling up nascent technologies such as geothermal power, fusion reactors, and ways to capture carbon dioxide directly from the air.

These innovations in what is being called “deep” or “hard” tech—products and processes based on science and engineering advances—could be critical in addressing climate change. While the past few years have seen remarkable progress in deploying relatively mature renewables such as solar and wind power, as well as strong growth in electric-vehicle sales, large gaps in the cleantech portfolio remain. In its most recent report this fall, the International Energy Agency estimates that around 35% of the emissions cuts needed to meet 2050 climate goals will have to come from technologies not yet available.

Key industrial sectors of the economy, in particular, have largely been untouched. Nearly a third of carbon emissions come from industrial processes used to make steel, cement, chemicals, and other commodities; concrete alone accounts for more than 7% of global emissions, while steel production is responsible for another 7% to 9%. Cleaning up these industries will take an almost unlimited supply of cheap, steady, and easily accessible carbon-free energy.

Progress will almost certainly require new science-based innovations. And that’s where venture-backed startups play an essential role. Over the last few decades, large industrial corporations in sectors such as energy, chemicals, and materials have all but abandoned research into new technologies. The days when industrial giants like DuPont created critical new technologies and spun them off into profitable operations are long gone. And while governments and universities fund research, venture-backed firms have emerged as an increasingly key outlet for transforming promising lab discoveries into sustainable businesses. 

A slew of such startups are now rapidly moving toward commercialization, providing the first steps toward industrial decarbonization and adoption of radically new energy sources (see chart). But these startups still face some of the same issues that tripped up the cleantech revolution a decade ago....

....MUCH MORE

The last bubble wasn't all bad, in spite of posts such as 2012's "Why the Clean Tech Boom Went Bust".

Our introduction to that one highlighted the opportunities for the nimble and/or insane: 

First Solar IPO $20.00 Nov. 17, 2006.
Top tick $317.00 May 14, 2008.
Last $42.93.

Yeah, that's a boom, bust cycle. 

Our most recent visit to FSLR was yesterday's "Jackpot: "First Solar to sell up to $700 million in IRA tax credits to Fiserv" (FSLR)" $172.27 last, down 17 cents.

"Russia lists around 30 state companies for possible privatisation"

Fundraising Putin style?

From Reuters, December 21:

The Russian state may reduce its shareholding in some large companies while maintaining a controlling stake, and has listed about 30 companies for possible privatisation, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Thursday.

Shunned by Western capital, Moscow is seeking ways to foster more domestic private investment, increase economic efficiency and, ultimately, bolster budget revenues as it ramps up spending to fund its war in Ukraine.

"The ministry has made proposals to the government on large companies where the state's share is more than 50%, and proposed reducing the share without losing a controlling stake," Siluanov said in an interview on Russia 24.

"And this could be tens, hundreds of billions (of roubles)," he said, adding that the list was with the government and still required further discussion....

....MUCH MORE

If interested see also December 26's "Russia's Central Banker And Ukraine's War Dead". 

"Singapore is leading the charge for driverless vehicles"

It is really starting to look as if 2024 will be, not just the break-out year for autonomous vehicles (GM's Cruise débâcle notwithstanding) but also the year the wider investing public recognizes the progress that has been made in self-driving vehicles.

From Semafor, December 26:

China’s WeRide to test robot buses in Singapore

NEWS
Chinese autonomous vehicle firm WeRide has been granted test licenses for robot buses in Singapore, part of an ambitious expansion plan to bring driverless buses to major metropolises around the world.

As cities look to automate their transport systems, Chinese autonomous vehicle (AV) companies are leading the way, testing vehicles including robot buses, vans and road sweepers.

SIGNALS
Singapore’s small size and advanced road infrastructure have helped to make it one of the leading countries for driverless buses. The island nation even built a mini-town – complete with a rain machine to simulate the island’s frequent tropical downpours – as a test circuit. Automated public transport could help Singapore to overcome some of the challenges faced by one of densest and fastest-aging populations in the world. With a quarter of its people set to be over the age of 65 by 2030, Singapore hopes driverless buses will help ease mobility issues for seniors and solve a future shortage of bus drivers....

....MORE

Yesterday:

HBR—AI Takes the Wheel: New Advances in Autonomous Driving

Because of our interest in AI and electric vehicles and such, we've been posting on autonomous vehicles for many, many years, from the big advances in super-heavy-duty mining equipment, wiping out some of the best-paying blue collar jobs in the world to autonomous ships/boats to the evolution of the technology for personal vehicles.

In 2017's "Izabella Kaminska In Conversation With the Financial Times' Auto Industry Correspondent, Peter Campbell, on the Prospects for Autonomous Vehicles" I was so taken by the electro-mechanical system for maintaining physical clarity of Waymo's LIDAR that it became an icon for us: