The Official Annotated MarketBeat Eurozone Default Calendar

From MarketBeat:

Eurozone Timeline: What’s Going to Be Ruining Your October?

Key euro-zone events on the horizon include Greek debt talks and parliamentary votes across the euro zone to ratify a July 21 agreement to beef up the 17-member currency bloc’s rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility. So far, Belgium, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Portugal and Spain have ratified the EFSF’s expansion and new powers, including the right to purchase bonds in the secondary market and provide funds to recapitalize banks. Financial markets will have to sweat through another meeting of European financial ministers and some key bond auctions. Several countries are voting this week while Cyprus, Malta, Slovakia, and the Netherlands are expected to vote in October.

–Wednesday, Sept. 28: The troika return to Athens to continue assessing Greece’s progress in cutting its budget deficit. The talks are crucial, because without the 8-billion-euro bailout payment the country runs a high risk of going bust. Finland is due to vote on changes to the EFSF.

–Thursday, Sept. 29: Germany’s and Estonia’s parliaments are due to vote on EFSF changes. Spanish banks face a deadline to meet new capitalization requirements.

–Friday, Sept. 30: Austria votes on increasing the country’s share of contribution to the EFSF....MORE

Recently:
Sept. 25 
Watch the Sept. 29 German Vote on the EFSF
Sept. 26 
Repost:Euro: Quick Recovery From Opening Gap Down Even As China Says Again It Won't Bail Out Europe (EUR/USD)


Sept. 27 
It's Not Over Until..."German turmoil over EU bail-outs as top judge calls for referendum"

General Motors Boss Tells Ford to Pull Ad Denigrating Bailout (GM; F)

From the Detroit News via Reason's Hit&Run blog:

Detroit News business columnist Dan Howes reports that the Obama administration has prodded Ford Motor Co. to pull its TV ad featuring a Ford (pick up) buyer saying that he wasn’t going to buy a vehicle from any company that received a government bailout because that was un-American. Notes Howes:

[T]he White House questioned whether the copy was publicly denigrating the controversial bailout policy CEO Alan Mulally repeatedly supported in the dark days of late 2008, in early '09 and again when the ad flap arose. And more.
With President Barack Obama tuning his re-election campaign amid dismal economic conditions and simmering antipathy toward his stimulus spending and associated bailouts, the Ford ad carried the makings of a political liability when Team Obama can least afford yet another one. Can't have that.
The ad, pulled in response to White House questions (and, presumably, carping from rival GM), threatened to rekindle the negative (if accurate) association just when the president wants credit for their positive results (GM and Chrysler are moving forward, making money and selling vehicles) and to distance himself from any public downside of his decision.
In other words, where presidential politics and automotive marketing collide — clean, green, politically correct vehicles not included — the president wins and the automaker loses because the benefit of the battle isn't worth the cost of waging it.

President Obama had assured everyone that just because GM and Chrysler got close to $100 billion in government money didn’t mean that the government would start bullying the companies to do its bidding. But evidently bullying their rivals that didn’t take government money is just fine....MORE

"China's Coming Solyndra Crisis"

Smart thinking to even look at the finances in this light.
I thought the total volume of loans was bigger.
From Mercom Capital via Forbes:

Courtesy of Mercom Capital Group

The political controversy over the U.S. government’s loan guarantee supporting the once-promising California solar start-up Solyndra has severely dampened enthusiasm for cleantech subsidies in the United States. The same cannot be said for China. But that may soon change.

Mercom Capital Group, an Austin, TX-based clean-energy consulting firm, reported earlier this week that state-owned Chinese banks have loaned nearly $41 billion to Chinese solar companies since last year. By contrast, the U.S. government loan guarantee for Solyndra was a mere $500 million....MORE

It's Not Over Until..."German turmoil over EU bail-outs as top judge calls for referendum"

I ain't heard no Große Mädchen singen.*
From Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the Telegraph:

Germany's top judge has issued a blunt warning that no further fiscal powers may be surrendered to Europe without a new constitution and a popular referendum, vastly complicating plans to boost the EU's rescue machinery to €2 trillion (£1.7 trillion).

Andreas Vosskuhle, head of the constitutional court, said politicians do not have the legal authority to sign away the birthright of the German people without their explicit consent.

"The sovereignty of the German state is inviolate and anchored in perpetuity by basic law. It may not be abandoned by the legislature (even with its powers to amend the constitution)," he said.

"There is little leeway left for giving up core powers to the EU. If one wants to go beyond this limit – which might be politically legitimate and desirable – then Germany must give itself a new constitution. A referendum would be necessary. This cannot be done without the people," he told newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine.

The extraordinary interview comes just days before the Bundestag votes on a bill to revamp the EU's €440bn bail-out fund (EFSF), enabling it to purchase EMU bonds pre-emptively and recapitalise banks....MORE

*Know what I'm sayin'?

Here's the end of the Ring: Götterdämmerung, conducted in a manic practice session by Sir George Solti:

"Harvard and Stanford Nearly Make Up Financial Crisis Losses" (CalPERS still playing catch up)

All three had "long only" commodities portfolios based on the GSCI but CalPERS really believed the fast talking Goldman salesman and bought the whole program including swaps that allowed them to piggy-back on Goldman's "commercial" status and thus avoid position limits.

From peHUB:

Harvard and Stanford, two of the nation’s richest universities, say that endowment returns for fiscal 2011 brought them to within striking distance of where they stood before the financial crisis lopped off billions of investment value. 


The Harvard Management Company, which manages the university’s endowment, reported a gain of 21.4 percent – or $4.4 billion – in fiscal 2011, which ended on June 30. That gain increased the size of Harvard’s endowment to $32 billion.

The gain, on top of fiscal 2010’s return of 11 percent, marks a strong reversal for the giant endowment, which plummeted 27 percent – or $11 billion – in fiscal 2009, from a pre-crisis peak of $36.9 billion in fiscal 2008. That leaves Harvard just $4.9 billion shy of where it was before the financial crisis.
Private equity was a strong component of Harvard’s strong performance. The university’s private equity program logged a 26.2 percent gain, which was still shy of returns earned by the university’s public equity program, which returned 28.3 percent....MORE

CalPERS assets under management topped out the month the DJIA hit it's all-time high, October 2007 at $260.6 billion.
By December 2008 that had fallen to $179.2 billion.
As of June 30, 2011 they had recovered to $237.5 billion

Watch out for those fast talkers.

Odyssey Marine Exploration Looks to Recover 240 Tons of Silver in Largest-ever Marine Salvage Find (OMEX)

From ABC News:
Ship Sunk by Nazis May Yield $240 Million in Silver, Biggest Take Ever

A ship sunk by a Nazi torpedo during WWII may yield $240 million in silver bars and coins, the biggest take ever from beneath the sea. Odyssey Marine Exploration, the U.S. company that will attempt the salvage of the S.S. Gairsoppa , says the wreck is just one of many whose recovery has been made possible by new technology, and made profitable by rising precious metal prices.

Gold and silver prices, hit hard last week, remain near historic highs. On Friday, gold suffered its biggest one-day loss in five years, dropping 5.8 percent to $1,637.50 an ounce. Silver fell 15 percent, posting its biggest one-day decline since 1987. It traded today around $31. These reduced values are still far above the levels needed to make salvage profitable.

"My guess is, we're not going to see much more degradation of precious metals prices, going forward," says Odyssey president Mark Gordon. He expects gold and silver prices to remain high, buoyed by investors' worries about the world economy.

Odyssey, working in partnership with the British government—owners of the torpedoed ship—hopes to salvage perhaps 240 tons of silver this spring. The New York Times reported details of the salvage operation.

The Gairsoppa, a merchant vessel steaming in from Calcutta to Liverpool, became separated in the North Atlantic from its protective convoy. As it tried to reach landfall in western Ireland, it was torpedoed and sunk by a German submarine in 1941....MORE 

Here's the 12-month chart for Odyssey Marine:

This is definitely not our type of deal but a fill of that gap would be hard to resist.

Iran Within Six Months of Nuclear Weapon

Are you saying that Mohamed Mustafa El Baradei, wannabe President of Egypt and former Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, was being less than forthright when he tut-tutted Iran's intentions?*
Say it ain't so!

Just as the Muslim Brotherhood with Iran's financial backing won't be running Egypt within two years.

From The Australian:
Iran just months from N-bomb 

IRAN may be just six months away from developing a nuclear bomb, despite international attempts to thwart the program through sanctions and cyber attacks.
Two years after an underground installation in the city of Qmo was revealed in a joint press conference by US President Barack Obama, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and former British prime minister Gordon Brown, Iran has significantly advanced its uranium enrichment program at the site.

The latest report from the International Atomic Energy Agency concludes that Iran has not only boosted production but upgraded the level of enrichment from 3.5 per cent to almost 20 per cent and has installed more sophisticated centrifuges, which it is moving to the bunker in Qom, apparently to protect them from airstrikes.

Low-enriched uranium is used for nuclear power, which Iran insists is the purpose of its program.Weapons-grade uranium is about 90 per cent enriched.

"We believe if Iran broke out now they could have a bomb in six months," said David Albright, a former weapons inspector who runs the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington. "They've done this right in front of our faces."

Iran has ignored four sets of UN Security Council resolutions since 2006 calling on it to cease enriching uranium. With the world's attention diverted by the Arab Spring, Tehran has pressed ahead, overcoming delays caused by Stuxnet, a mysterious computer worm that made centrifuges malfunction.
Greg Jones, a defence analyst at the Nonproliferation Policy Education Centre, calculates that Iran could now produce a bomb within 62 days.

"The assumption has always been that Iran would never actually get a nuclear weapon, because the West would have enough advance warning to prevent it either by diplomacy or force, but they've kept on pushing the envelope and getting away with it," he said.

A new report by the Bipartisan Policy Centre, a think tank set up by US senators, warns: "The Islamic Republic of Iran could be a de facto nuclear power before 2011 is over."

IAEA inspectors reported last weekend that Iran had installed its new centrifuges after evading Western attempts to block supplies of the special steel required.

These IR-2 centrifuges have replaced unreliable and antiquated machines.
The new ones, which Iran claims to have developed in its own laboratories, are more reliable, speeding up production.

"I'm very alarmed," said Nicholas Burns, the US former chief negotiator on Iran. "I've read many IAEA reports over the years and they are very carefully written by civil servants. This time they are clearly ringing the alarm bells."...MORE

Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.

End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

*From his last speech to the IAEA Board of Governors, June 2009:

“the agency has been able to continue to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material in Iran."

In the meantime,
The AP via the Boston Globe:
Iran angry over killing of its nuclear scientists

and from NPR:
Security Expert: U.S. 'Leading Force' Behind Stuxnet

While Turkey's Premier weighs in (via the Tehran Times):
Sanctions on Iran based on presumptions unacceptable: Erdogan

This is not going to end well.

So Molycorp's President Bought a Bit of Stock (MCP)

Except for the buying reported August 4, 2010, which were part of the July 28, 2010 IPO ($14) this is the insider buy since the company came public.

From SECForm4:

Smith Mark A. (President and CEO Director)

4,200

$59.02

$247,884

Here's the running total for all insiders:

Total buys: $56,552,972
Total sales: $3,089,745,472
Net:           $3,033,192,500

Here's the 12-month chart, $30 looks like decent support:

The stock traded as low as $31.41 yesterday before closing at $34.56.
In late premarket action the stock is up $2.39 at $36.95
Recently:

Sept. 20 
UPDATED: More on JPM's Downgrade of Molycorp (MCP)
UPDATED: "Molycorp Slammed As a Major Bull Turns Bearish" (MCP)
After Thrashing by JPM, Morgan Stanley Says Nice Things About Molycorp (MCP)

Sept. 22 
Another One Of Molycorp's Underwriters Weighs In: "Dahlman Says Buy the Dip in Molycorp; Reiterates Buy, $120 Price Target" (MCP)


Finally, here's a bit of intelligence that was good for a triple in the calls:

Aug. 9, 2011
Rare Earths: Molycorp Registers Some Stock (and why did Morgan Stanley pick up 8,439,008 shares?) MCP

Jim Rogers Talks Commodities: "Gold Could be Down For Months. Buy Agriculture" (GLD; DBA; MOO)

From India's Economic Times:

Gold price correction will last for several months; buy on dips: Jim Rogers

In an interview with ET Now, Jim Rogers, Chairman, Rogers Holdings, shares his outlook on commodities and the falling rupee. Excerpts: 

Gold has been down 10% in the past week and is at an 8-week low today. Given this, what is your outlook for gold prices and do you see gold near $2000 per ounce in the near to medium term?
We have discussed before that gold has been up 10 years in a row, which is very unusual in any asset class. So if it is up this year or 11 years in a row, gold is overdue for a correction and it could have a nice substantial correction given that it has been so strong.

I have no idea what is going to happen this year. I doubt if it will go to $2000 an ounce in 2011, it is more likely to have a correction which will last for several weeks, several months. It has been very strong. If it goes down some more, I would buy more gold as I have told you many times.

Silver has been one of your favourites, but that is down 24% in the past week. Are you still buying?
Not yet, but if silver continues to go down as we have discussed before, I will buy more silver too. Do not sell your silver, do not sell your gold unless you are a short-term trader, but anybody who is in this for a long term, silver and gold will both go much higher over the next few years....MORE

...Then, let's talk about base metals. Copper has seen quite a drubbing down 30% over the last one month. Are you seeing more downside for most of these base metals?
That is a big big sell off, 30% in anything in that shorter period of time. So it is a shock, but I would expect most things to continue to correct and react because the world has got serious problems facing in the future. Base metals will be affected by reduced demand.
Other commodities will continue to do well, but base metals certainly would be affected by reduction in demand and you know what is happening in Europe, you know what is happening in America. So be careful. I am not selling any of my commodities. I am not selling my base metals, but I am not jumping in to buy either.

Once we have seen a consolidation in prices, where do you believe we are going to see buying opportunities emerge first?
It will come in the commodities, probably agriculture will be bought first. I am thinking about buying agriculture right now. I am not thinking about buying base metals or gold or oil right now, but I am thinking of buying agriculture maybe this afternoon. Elsewhere the man who come first probably precious metals, second then the rest of the commodities.

So overall what you say is that the kind of correction that we have seen in commodities has been a surprise to you, were you expecting such a sharp fall?
Given that stock markets around the world are collapsing is not such a surprise, but to answer your question, no I certainly did not expect it to be this hard, this fast with commodities coming down, absolutely not.

Tell us what is the outlook going forward as large commodity consumers like the US and China are showing clear signs of slowing down?
I am thinking about buying agriculture as we speak. I own commodities. I am not selling any commodity. I have so short emerging markets and European stocks and American technology stocks, but I mainly long commodities and currencies. I would not sell commodities and if you need protection in your portfolio, I would think about buying commodities and you might even buy agriculture today or I might buy agriculture today.

Then what would be your strategy? Would it be different on agri-based commodities and different for industrial commodities like base metals and crude oil?

...MORE 


HT: Clusterstock

Climateer Line of the Day: "Non, je ne regrette rien" Edition

Things you won't read anywhere else today:

...Field Day continues to be the hands down best source of naked agricultural photos mainly due to their promotion of the UK's seeming fascination with Ag fundraising through producing naked farm photo calendars. This subject has been covered on this blog a few times before.... (Field Day)

From Big Picture Agriculture.

"Non, je ne regrette rien" (I'm not sorry for anything) was an Edith Piaf song dedicated to the French Foreign Legion.
La Toya Jackson also covered it.

The Federal Debt: What Does The Average U.S. Citizen Owe (and to whom)

As I type I have a Malaysian guy standing over my shoulder asking me to cough up the forty bucks.
A wonderful infographic from MBA Online via Global Macro Monitor:
(click to enlarge)



Created by: MBA Online
(click here if chart is not observable)

The Biggest Driver Of U.S. Government Revenues

I like Political Calculations and have been remiss in linking to his thinking.
From PC:

What's the biggest single factor that determines how much money the U.S. federal government will collect in any given year?

For our money, it's Median Household Income. The chart below, which shows the relationship between median household income and the total receipts of the U.S. government for each year since 1967, the earliest year for which we have median household income data, shows why we think that:

Here, we found that a simple power law relationship exists between the amount of median household income in the United States and the total amount of money that the federal government collects each year, which is why we've opted to show both the horizontal and vertical axes on a logarithmic scale: a power law relationship becomes a straight line when graphed on such a chart.

All in all, given the variation we observe from year to year, the formula we presented on the chart will be accurate to within 12% of the actual amount of money collected by the U.S. government in any given year if you only know the median household income, and often much less than that amount. That's pretty remarkable considering how much, and how often, U.S. income tax rates have changed since 1967.
But then, you don't have to take our word for it. You can use the tool below to do the relevant math for yourself....MORE

Also at Political Calculations:

The Itemized Tax Deductions of the Rich and Famous

"Clean Energy, China-Style: Sex, Cash and Stolen Technology" (AMSC)

For those who say we should emulate the Chinese approach to clean energy I say Damn Straight!
Sinovel was the largest customer of American Superconductor, accounting for up to 90% of AMSC's sales in some quarters. They reneged on a whole bunch of orders, putting American Superconductor at risk of insolvency.It may have been a deliberate attempt to cripple AMSC and steal their technology, above and beyond this software case.
From Forbes:

Sinovel, a leading Chinese wind turbine maker, seduced a troubled software engineer into selling highly-sensitive software code from his employer, Windtec, for subsidized sex and a heap of no-strings-attached cash.

Dejan Karabrasevic, a 38-year-old Serb, was sentenced to one year in jail and two years of probation after admitting before a judge in Klagenfurt, Austria that he had pilfered the data.
Sinovel’s 1.5 megawatt turbines are allegedly using the wind-power electronics software code developed by Windtec, the Austrian subsidiary of Devons, Mass.-based American Superconductor.
Here is how Recharge describes the testimony provided in Austria yesterday:

The court heard claims that Karabrasevic, who was embittered after being demoted from his job as systems integrator to a post in the customer services department, handed over code for €15,000.

Sinovel at one stage offered Karabrasevic a $1.7 million employment contract including car and apartment, it was said, while women also “attempted to convince him to cooperate.”

But pleading guilty to the charge, Karabrasevic described the decision to hand over Windtec’s IP as “the biggest mistake of his life.”

AMSC is pursuing $250 million or more in legal damages from Sinovel resulting from the alleged illegal use of AMSC’s proprietary software code. Karabrasevic’s admission of guilt is likely to advance AMSC’s efforts to recover those alleged damages from Sinovel.

The Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times were a bit more subdued with their headlines:
Chinese Turbine Firm Tied to Software Theft

Defendant convicted in Sinovel secrets case

A former employee of American Superconductor was convicted on Friday by an Austrian court for selling commercial secrets to Sinovel, the Chinese turbine maker.
However, the defendant received a relatively mild one-year jail sentence after pleading guilty and fully co-operating with the authorities....MORE at the FT

"...Are Infrastructure Jobs Being Shipped to China?"

Between their Solyndra coverage and the Bringing America Back series ABC is doing some real journalism.
From ABC News:

Rebuilding America's crumbling infrastructure is a growing priority, with President Obama highlighting construction jobs as part of his $447 billion jobs plan.

The president visited the "functionally obsolete" Brent Spence Bridge in Ohio Thursday and called on lawmakers to do their part in fixing America's infrastructure.

"Mr. Boehner, Mr. McConnell, help us rebuild this bridge," he said in a speech. "Help us rebuild America. Help us put this country back to work."

In New York there is a $400 million renovation project on the Alexander Hamilton Bridge.
In California, there is a $7.2 billion project to rebuild the Bay Bridge connecting San Francisco and Oakland.

In Alaska, there is a proposal for a $190 million bridge project.

These projects sound like steps in the right direction, but much of the work is going to Chinese government-owned firms.

"When we subsidize jobs in China, we're not creating any wealth in the United States," said Scott Paul, executive director for the Alliance for American Manufacturing.

The renovation of the Alexander Hamilton Bridge in New York is being overseen by China Construction America, a subsidiary of the China State Construction Engineering Corporation. The company uses mostly U.S. labor, but many coveted skill jobs such as engineering and design work are Chinese. The profits will also go overseas....MORE

"A Nation Sized Battery"

Back in June 2010 we linked to the only analyst I know of covering the lead-acid battery space in:
"The Lead Acid Battery Sector Is Starting A Bull Run" (CHP; ENS; XIDE)

Words I never thought I'd post....

Here's how it turned out for Exide:

We used to call that a "Bear went over the mountain" pattern.
But it was a nice little run.
Here's some lead-acid scuttlebutt via The Oil Drum:

This is a guest post by Tom Murphy. Tom is an associate professor of physics at the University of California, San Diego.
As we look to transition away from fossil fuels, solar and wind are attractive options. Key factors making them compelling are: the inexhaustibility of the source with use (i.e., renewable); their low carbon footprint; and the independence that small-scale distribution can foster (I’ll never put a nuclear plant on my roof, even if it would make me the coolest physicist ever!).


With full-scale solar in the desert southwest, and wind in the plains states, we're going to need a big battery (items not to scale!). But solar and wind suffer a serious problem in that they are not always available. There are windless days, there are sunless nights, and worst of all, there are windless nights. Obviously, this calls for energy storage, allowing us to collect the energy when we can, and use it when we want.

Small-scale off-grid solar and wind installations have been doing this for a long time, typically using lead-acid batteries as the storage medium. I myself have four golf-cart batteries in my garage storing the energy from eight 130 W solar panels, and use these to power the majority of my electricity consumption at home.

It’s worth pausing to appreciate this fact. Compare this scheme to the dream source of fusion. Why do people go ga-ga over fusion? Because there is enough deuterium in water (sea water is fine) to provide a seemingly inexhaustible source of energy, and there are no atmospheric emissions in the process. Meanwhile, solar provides a source that will last longer (billions of years), produces even less pollution (no radioactive contamination of containment vessel), and is here today! It’s even affordable enough and low-tech enough to be on my roof and in my garage! People—we have arrived!

Storage works on the small scale, as many stand-aloners can attest. How would it scale up? Can it?

Meeting Requirements
So what would it take? We’re not a nation tolerant of power outages. Those big refrigerators can spoil a lot of food when the electricity drops away. A rule of thumb for remote solar installations is that you should design your storage to last for a minimum of three days with no energy input. Even then, sometimes you will “go dark” in the worst storm of the winter. This does not mean literally three days of total deprivation, but could be four consecutive days at 25% average input, so that you only haul in one day’s worth over a four day period, leaving yourself short by three.

So let’s buy ourselves security and design a battery that can last a week without any new inputs (as before, this is not literally 7 days of zero input, but could be 8 days at 12.5% average input or 10 days at 30% input). This may be able to manage the worst-case “perfect” storm of persistent clouds in the desert Southwest plus weak wind in the Plains.

Let’s also plan ahead and have all of our country’s energy needs met by this system: transportation, heating, industry, etc. The rate at which we currently use energy in all forms in the U.S. is 3 TW. If we transition everything to electricity, we can get by with 2 TW, assuming no growth in demand. Why? Because we currently use two-thirds of our energy supply (or 2 TW) to run heat engines, getting only about 0.6 TW out for useful purposes in the bargain. An electrical system could deliver this same 0.6 TW for only 1 TW of input, considering storage and transmission efficiencies.

Running a 2 TW electrified country for 7 days requires 336 billion kWh of storage. We could also use nuclear power as a baseload to offset a significant portion of the need for storage—perhaps chopping the need in two. This post deals with the narrower topic of what it would take to implement a full-scale renewable-energy battery. Scale the result as you see fit.

Lead-Acid Delivers
I’ll use lead-acid batteries as a baseline. Why? Because lead-acid batteries are the cheapest way to store electricity today. They’re bulky, sloshy, and very heavy, which makes them unsuitable for electric cars or laptop computers. But they’re very efficient, commonly achieving 85% or better energy efficiency in a charge cycle. The technology is well tested, having been around since 1859. And lead is a common element, being the endpoint of the alpha-decay chain of heavy elements like uranium and thorium. Their economic favorability makes lead-acid batteries hands-down the most common battery type in stand-alone renewable systems worldwide....MORE

We'll keep an eye on the sector, so you don't have to.

Mind the Gap: Treasury ETF Has a Lot of Air Under It (TLT)

The ishares barclays 20 year treasury bond etf  is trading down 60 cents at $120.23. It could fall a lot further.
From Slope of Hope:

What's Going On Between Bloomberg and Rochdale's Dick Bove?

I'd swear Rochdale told Bove to shut up.
From FT Alphaville:
Bove vs Bloomberg

Does Rochdale Research’s Richard X. Bove have a slight axe to grind against Bloomberg or something? We ask the question because his latest note has just landed in our inbox. (H/T Tracy Alloway)
It’s an extraordinary rant about this week’s Bloomberg BusinessWeek editorial: The Flaws in Basel; In Defense of Millionaires. But don’t worry readers, it’s not any the less entertaining for that.

Bove, who famously solved the European debt crisis in 407 words, takes BusinessWeek to task, calling on the publication to defend its assertions and prove among other things that banks really did cause the recent financial crisis. Yep, that’s right. There really is someone out there who doesn’t blame the banks for our current plight.

And in a conclusion that might be troublesome if he ever appears on Bloomberg TV in the future, Bove claims that “yellow-dog” journalism is alive and well at the Borg.
There’s nothing quite like a banking apologist scorned, is there?
Selected highlights.
(Emphasis ours)
Opening remarks

This weekend I read the editorial that led off the current issue of Bloomberg Businessweek. Quite frankly, I was appalled at what appeared to me to be a misrepresentation of fact. Therefore, it makes sense to comment randomly on the statements made in this editorial and quite frankly to challenge Bloomberg to back up its statement with fact.

On Frequent financial disasters...MORE

For some reason I'm reminded of an arrest audio that a reader sent in a couple years ago:

"Dick X, Dick X, Dick X, check it out"

Here's the RECORDING, from what I understand it's pretty famous:

http://media.radcity.net/kqrs/morningshow/yomammy.mp3

Repost:Euro: Quick Recovery From Opening Gap Down Even As China Says Again It Won't Bail Out Europe (EUR/USD)

A couple readers have said they couldn't see half this post in their reader so here goes.
Original post:
As we said in last Monday's "Euro Tumbles Below $1.36, And That May Not Be All (EUR/USD)":

The first rule of global macro is, if you  can get the currency right the rest is a lot easier. EUR/USD currently 1.3614....

From ZeroHedge:

EURUSD opened down 80pips, to below Friday's lows, but has somewhat rapidly recovered those losses shifting into the green now in very early (and thin) trading. We assume this means the market has still not processed the latest news from China, which officially refutes, for the third time, rumors of an imminent Chinese bailout. From Bloomberg: "It’s “too early” to determine how emerging economies can further help the euro area overcome its sovereign debt crisis because reforms are still under way, China’s Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said. “We need to first see if euro-zone countries can implement their July 21 decision,” Zhou told reporters at the International Monetary Fund in Washington on Sept. 24, referring to a pledge by European leaders to expand the powers of a regional rescue fund....MORE

Recently:

Sept. 6
Euro on the Precipice

A stronger dollar would not be good for U.S. equities. EUR/USD is up ten pips at 1.4107.
SoH is looking for a February 2013 bottom while we are thinking mid 2014....

Sept. 9
No Support for the Euro (EUR/USD)

Sept. 13

"Morgan Stanley Slashes EURUSD Target To 1.30, Says EUR Attraction As An Alternative Reserve Currency Ending"

The former future reserve currency is trading at 1.3675 down 4 pips.

Sept. 18

EURUSD Opens 100 Pips Lower On Latest Round Of Greek Default Fears and PIMCO: Euro to $1.20 in in Three to Six Months.(EUR/USD)

Sept. 19

Euro Tumbles Below $1.36, And That May Not Be All (EUR/USD)

The first rule of ecology is "Everything is connected". It's in figuring out those connections that you get paid

As I said in "Paul Tudor Jones Interview at Institutional Investor" :

The advantage and disadvantage of global macro is It Is Not Easy. You have to pay attention and you have to understand the interrelationships of many markets and politics and weather and psychology and be facile in both words and numbers and in an ego-driven business be humble enough to learn the lessons the market will teach you.

It really helps to not take yourself too seriously, both to avoid the temptation to impose your will upon the market and to maintain enough perspective to spot opportunities ahead of the crowd.
Because global macro isn't easy the rewards can be tremendous.

Chasing high corn prices, U.S. farmers skip rotations

It is time to get rid of the ethanol mandates, before we destroy some of the best farmland in the world.
From Reuters:

Farmer Brian Schaumburg has planted corn for five straight years in some of the thousands of acres he tends in central Illinois.

Farmers who eschew crop rotations that help to replenish the soil with nutrients take a risk that yields will decline. But corn prices soared to a record earlier this year, making so-called corn-on-corn crops a worthwhile bet for many farmers in Illinois, the No. 2 U.S. corn state after Iowa.

"Last year and this year, we're seeing a little yield drag but, even so, corn pays," Schaumberg said from the air-conditioned cab of his crop-cutting combine as he mowed down tall corn stalks, gathering kernels of the yellow grain.

Schaumburg was in the early stages of harvest and so far was averaging roughly 180 bushels per acre in fields that grew corn last year, and about 200 bpa in corn fields that were planted with soybeans last year, with both yields in line with his averages during the previous few years.
"Corn on corn hurts in some places but there's places it's awful good," he said.

Down the road, farmer Dave Eyer was not faring as well. One field that was planted with corn last year yielded roughly 125 bpa, down 30 to 40 bushels from a year ago, after scorching weather in July stressed the crop as it pollinated.

"The plant knew there was something wrong and it only put out so many kernels to be pollinated," Eyer said.
Another field planted for seed corn was expected to yield nothing and Eyer said he would claim insurance for it.

"It was so hot, it killed the pollen," Eyer said. "It's not perfect every year. Weather is still the major factor."

FORECAST FOR LOWER YIELDS
Research firm AgResource Co on Friday cut its yield estimate 2 percent to 145.1 bpa, citing disappointing results from the early harvest. The forecast was below the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture estimate of 148.1 bpa.

Late planting, a lack of rain and hot temperatures have all been blamed for the lower yields. Dry weather can have more of a negative effect on corn-on-corn fields than corn that followed soybeans, said Emerson Nafziger, an extension agronomist at the University of Illinois.

"We are having some areas that have big yield hits on corn on corn. It's pretty specific to dry areas," Nafziger said. "Our working rule of thumb is 10 percent less on yields."
Still, it is a worthy trade-off for many farmers.

"They say corn is king for a reason. It has the highest yield for any of the crops we grow," Nafziger said....MORE

The Relationship Between the VIX and Commodity Prices

We look at dozens of correlations and anti-correlations per week but this was one we missed.
When dealing with this kind of stuff keep the old traders lament in mind:

"As soon as you think you've found the key, they go and change the lock".

From Agrimoney:
Rabobank flags Vix-aid as crop sell-off continues 

The so-called "fear index", the Vix, could help guide agricultural commodity investors through the market mayhem by increasing understanding of currency moves, Rabobank said, as the liquidation wave extended into Friday.

This month's revival in the dollar has been viewed as a key contributor to the sell-off in raw materials even for those in which demand has looked relatively strong, in making US commodities less competitive against those priced in depreciating currencies.

"Despite the break in US futures prices, Brazilian producers are still able to offer soybeans at near record prices," Brian Henry at Benson Quinn Commodities said, noting talk that China bought more than 1m tonnes of South American soybeans this week in two days.

And the Vix in turn, as a measure of market volatility and investor panic, provides a useful measure of investors' enthusiasm for flooding into the dollar, viewed as a safe haven in times of market panic.

'Strong inverse correlation'

"If panic in the markets, as demonstrated by the Vix index, remains elevated, this will place continued pressure on non-US dollar currencies," Rabobank said.

If so, "the advantage gained by South American, and other emerging market, exporters will likely persist in the near-term".

The bank highlighted in particular the Brazilian real's "strong inverse correlation" with the Vix "when markets are at their extremes".

The real's strength is important not just for soybeans, but the likes of coffee and sugar, of which Brazil is the main exporter....MORE