Soft commodities outperform

From HedgeFunds Review:

Soft commodities are likely to outperform other commodity asset classes over the next five years, according to Jonathan Boyden, head of sugar trading at Ambrian Capital.

Soft commodity prices rose 29% over the past five years; while base metals were up 454%, precious metals grew 168% and grains increased 116%.

However, soft futures – like sugar, coffee and cocoa – have soared by over 20% since the start of 2008, powered by investment funds and speculators which are seeking big returns in agricultural commodities....MORE

Real Estate Porn (New York State)

Naked Capitalism has gone over to the dark side (real estate marketing):

In a departure from our usual programming, I thought I would introduce a real estate opportunity (yes this is an ad of sorts). But as you can see, it is particularly attractive and also presents an interesting case example of the issues involving the marketing of unique and illiquid assets.

The asset in question is a private lake roughly an hour and forty-five minute drive from Manhattan. The property is 47 acres, and the lake itself is 9 acres.

Broker hype aside, this is an exceptional property. It's gorgeous. It's also unusual topographically, a mini Mohonk. The teardrop shaped lake is situated below schist and granite cliffs that rise on almost all sides to an elevation of 100-150 feet, surrounding nearly the entire property. Visitors have called it a "pocket universe." You'd need to considerably more land to get the same degree of privacy....MORE

Go for the pictures and the rest of the story. Bring your checkbook.

MarketBeat Gets Vedic on Ambac (ABK; MBI)

Five words I never thought I'd string together.*

And that answer for some reason reminds me of Cliff Clavin on Jeopardy!**:

"Who are three people who have never been in my kitchen?"

Years ago I introduced an Indian guy to a Chicago trader:
"Jerry, this is Siva Kumar ****"
"Huh....Not a local, huh."

Here's a Bhajan Siva used to sing between trades:

Guru Brahma, Guru Vishnu, Guru Devo Maheshwara. Guru Sakshath Parambrahma, Tasmai Shri Gurave Namaha.

Here's MarketBeat:

...(Think of the old Hindu myth of cosmology — MBIA and Ambac are the elephants holding up the earth, and the banks are the turtle holding up the elephants. What holds up the turtle, one might ask.)...

Turtles all the way down? (Wikipedia)

* The referenced article says it is debated whether this is Hindu cosmology.

**The Jeopardy categories in Cliff's game include: Civil Servants, Stamps from around the world, mothers and sons, beer, bar trivia, and celibacy.

Here's Cliff on Jeopardy!

Yergin: Climate Change and Energy are Converging into New Era of Clean Energy

I know Yergin raises some folks hackles but he does have a big megaphone.
From FOXBusiness:

"High energy prices, climate change and energy security are converging as the new engine driving the development of clean energy," Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) and executive vice president, IHS Inc., said today in Washington, D.C. "There is a major shift in public opinion towards clean energy, which is being bolstered by the growing conviction that new carbon policies will reshape the competitive landscape of the global energy business.">>>MORE

AbitibiBowater Inc (NYSE:ABH): Actionable Call Alert!

This is a bit off-topic. Short the papers and use the proceeds to buy the ABH? Pretty agressive but I haven't seen Notable Calls this fired up in quite a while.

- Citigroup is out with an interesting call on AbitibiBowater Inc (NYSE:ABH) saying they have learned the co, with nearly 50% of North American newsprint capacity, has announced a
$60/tonne price increase to be phased in at $20/month April through June.

If successful, they believe ABH would be comfortably free cash flow positive in the 2Q (net of closure costs). Newsprint prices are $620/tonne in February, up from $560 in October. A $20/tonne increase (to $640) is slated for March. The 2Q increase would result in $700.

Citi's “optimistic” estimates for ABH assume that US newsprint prices range between $655-$665/tonne during the second quarter and end the year at $695. However, the ABH move would get newsprint prices above their year-end projections by mid-year. Could even they be low?

ABH’s CFO and Treasurer will present today afternoon at an investor conference in NY. If the bond market is “correct” (with the April 1st bonds trading today around 85), wouldn’t these gentlemen be grabbing pails to bail water back in Greenville?

Citi notes they actually have the sheer audacity to believe management and do not see the sky falling. Firm's target remains $60. Reits Buy.

Notablecalls: WOW! I said WOW! This is a $16 stock, ladies and gentlemen, meaning Citi's tgt represents almost 400% return. Must say I've never seen this kind of stuff coming out of a tier-1 firm. Maybe only in biotechs....MORE

Al Gore on a Carbon Tax and Rebate Plan

From the Nobel Acceptance Speech:

...And most important of all, we need to put a price on carbon -- with a CO2 tax that is then rebated back to the people, progressively, according to the laws of each nation, in ways that shift the burden of taxation from employment to pollution. This is by far the most effective and simplest way to accelerate solutions to this crisis.

There is a THEY, and They Know

I've been asked to stand in as drum majorette at the tinfoil hat parade (see below)

From Davos 2007 (the one before the last one):

"…a large hedge fund fails due to sudden asset devaluations. Herd behaviour causes global liquidity to dry up. Neither the G8 nor the G20 is able to coordinate a response. Central banks inject liquidity ad hoc, creating inflationary risks. As black box models fail to adjust, financial contagion continues."

Page 14, "Global Risks, 2007"- World Economic Forum; January, 2oo7.

Pretty good call. Now, if you'll excuse me,

"Il faut bien que je les suive, puisque je suis leur chef."*
-Ledru-Rollin

Phrase historique prononcée à Paris - 1848
EVEN.fr

*Schoolboy translation: "I must follow them for I am their leader."

ABBA demonstrating improper use of tin foil.

How investors are playing a possible return to 1970's-style stagflation

From MarketWatch:
Gold, platinum, soybeans, oil.

With few exceptions, commodities are rallying again, breaking records and keeping inflation pressures on the boil.

For investors, the resurgence in commodity prices has made for excitement and relief from an otherwise gloomy financial market. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, which tracks a broad range of commodities, has surged 11% year to date, pushing through new record highs. By contrast, the S&P 500 Index , measuring blue-chip stocks, is down 8% in the same period, while bond returns -- as tracked by Lehman Brothers' U.S. Aggregate bond index -- are up just 0.8%.

Traders driving up metal, grain and energy prices have pushed aside concerns about slowing growth in the world's largest developed economies -- at least for now. Prices for copper and aluminum, both used extensively in construction and manufacturing, have managed to rebound from 2008 lows despite cooling in the United States and possibly Europe....MUCH MORE

Good Night Wall Street

If you open this in a new tab, you'll get tonight's lullaby PLUS whatever else you're up to.
Or you can watch. He was unique.

As the Climate Changes, So Does China's Environment Business

From Knowledge@Wharton:

When former U.S. Vice President Al Gore and the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for their focus on global warming, the Nobel committee said climate change “must be treated with the utmost seriousness.”

But it’s not just politicians and academics becoming involved with the issue. The global capital markets are having their say. Peony Capital Ltd., a €400 million ($590 million) Beijing-based carbon trading fund backed by Microsoft founder Bill Gates, said in August that it would buy 10 million tons of emission reductions by 2012 from projects in China.

Peony is just one of many. In their report on the “State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2007,” Karan Capoor and Philippe Ambrosi of the World Bank said an estimated $11.8 billion had been invested in 58 carbon funds as of March 2007, compared with $4.6 billion in 40 funds as of May 2006....MORE

Fidel: "Cool, More Time to Blog!"

Last year we linked* (and here) to some of Fidel's thoughts on global warming.
Here are some of his thoughts on energy:

Oil costs and development
Reflections by Fidel Castro Ruz

Here's his homepage.









*
*
Six articles by Fidel Castro, written in the spring of 2007. Compiled by Socialist Voice. Download the PDF

Farmland value boom continues

What real estate downturn?
From AgricultureOnline:

Cropland values boomed in fourth quarter 2007, easily surpassing the previous highs posted in the last quarter, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's fourth quarter Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions.

In the survey of 268 banks in the seven-state Tenth Federal Reserve District, both nonirrigated and irrigated cropland values surged at a record pace, rising 21% and 18% above year ago levels. Bankers also cited more farmland sales in 2007 than in the previous year....MORE

Or, as the K.C. Fed put it:

Survey of Tenth District Agricultural Credit Conditions

Booming Farmland Values

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Federal Direct Payments to Farmers are forecast at $13.382 Bil. up 12%.

Source

Best Auto-Bio of the Day

Johann Hari writes this about himself:

...He is on the editorial board of the magazine The Liberal, and he is a patron of the magazine Safer Society, which campaigns for more liberal and rehabilitative law and order policies.

Since he began work as a journalist, Johann has been attacked in print by the Daily Telegraph, John Pilger, Peter Oborne, Private Eye, the Socialist Worker, Cristina Odone, the Spectator, Andrew Neil, Mark Steyn, the British National Party, Medialens, al Muhajaroun and Richard Littlejohn. 'Prince' Turki Al-Faisal, the Saudi Ambassador to Britain, has accused Johann of "waging a private jihad against the House of Saud". (He's right). Johann has been called "a Stalinist" and "beneath contempt" by Noam Chomsky, 'Horrible Hari' by Niall Ferguson, "an uppity little queer" by Bruce Anderson, 'a drug addict' by George Galloway, "fat" by the Dalai Lama and "a cunt" by Busted.

Typing "Auto-" I almost continued "de-fe"

Big Oil-World's Tallest Building at 1985 Feet, Goal: 2683; Three Taller Planned

From ArabianBusiness:

Twice as high as Burj Dubai
...Hyder has been working on Emaar Properties' Burj Dubai, currently the world's tallest structure being built in Dubai and scheduled to be completed by the end of 2008.

Burj Dubai, which is the world's tallest structure, has now reached a height of 604.9 metres (1985 feet) with 159 floors completed, with a final rumoured height to be 818 metres.

Burj Dubai is currently taller than the world's tallest completed building, Taiwan's Taipei 101 and more than 40 metres higher than the world's tallest free-standing structure, Toronto's CN Tower.

Three proposed sky-scraper projects in the Gulf are taking am at Burj Dubai's crown as the world's tallest.

In Saudi Arabia, Kingdom Holding has proposed the Mile High Tower in Jeddah, which would rise to 1,600 metres if completed.

Burj Mubarak Al-Kabir in Kuwait's City of Silk is proposed to be 1,001 metres and Nakheel's Al Burj in Dubai is planned to reach 1,200 metres....MORE

Grain Trader: "I don't think there are enough acres to satisfy the demand in all these commodities"

From the Chicago Tribune:

It's a stand-off between fuel, foreign trade and American stomachs.

The government on Thursday predicted an unprecedented jump in the export of agricultural goods, while demand for corn-based ethanol continues to push prices for soybeans and wheat to new records.

The rising cost of food has bakers marching on Washington, shaped the Democratic presidential primary's debate about international trade and provoked questions about whether America can continue to be the world's breadbasket.

...The Agriculture Department estimated that farm-grown exports will total $101 billion this fiscal year, a 23 percent annual increase that would generate a $24.5 billion trade surplus among agricultural products. That is $10 billion more than the agency's November forecast, a difference caused by a chain reaction of surging commodity prices....MORE

Magazine finds 40 more billionaires in Russia

From the International Herald Tribune:

Russia gained 40 billionaires last year for a total of 101, led by Oleg Deripaska, whose $40 billion fortune ranks among the largest in the world, Finans magazine reported Monday.

Deripaska, 40, the founder of United Co. Rusal, the aluminum company with the largest capacity in the world, extended his lead over his former partner, Roman Abramovich. Surging metals prices and investments in construction and automaking increased Deripaska's wealth by 89 percent, the Moscow weekly said.

Abramovich, 41, the owner of the English Premier League soccer club Chelsea, saw his fortune rise 9.5 percent to $23 billion, followed by Vladimir Lisin of Novolipetsk Steel, Mikhail Fridman of Alfa Group and Alexei Mordashov of Severstal, who all moved up the list with estimated assets of $22.1 billion to $22.2 billion....MORE

LDK Solar to Report Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2007 Financial Results on February 25, 2008

Just a reminder. Here's the press release:

LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE:LDK), a leading manufacturer of multicrystalline solar wafers, announced today that it will release financial results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2007 ended December 31, 2007, following the close of the market on Monday, February 25, 2008. The company will host a corresponding conference call and live webcast at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time (ET) the same day.

To listen to the live conference call, please dial 800-218-0713 (within U.S.) or 303-262-2175 (outside U.S.) at 5:50 p.m. ET on February 25, 2008. An audio replay of the call will be available to investors through February 29, 2008, by dialing 800-405-2236 (within U.S.) or 303-590-3000 (outside U.S.) and entering the passcode 11108905#.
A live webcast of the call will be available on the company's investor relations website at investor.ldksolar.com.

Never Mind and "The Carbon Traders"

I posted a comment at the WSJ's Environmental Capital blog in response to their post:
"Green Eyeshades vs. Starry Eyes: The Cap or Tax Debate".

The green eyeshades AND the starry eyes are both something I know something about:

This is turning into another
“little green” vs. “GOLIATH GREEN”
(I get a kick out of commenters who
“LOCK CAPS>>FIRE”).

Here’s a left of center site that points up the NRDC’s role in the Enron inspired Cali. electricity dereg.
http://www.prwatch.org/prwissues/2003Q3/enviros.html

Here’s a little green linkfest:
http://itsgettinghotinhere.org/2008/02/19/
environmental-justice-community-says-no-to-carbon-trading/

Comment by Climateer - February 22, 2008 at 11:54 am

Forty minutes later I stopped back and my golden, Shakespearian prose was gone!
An outrage against art! Corporate censorship!
(do you get annoyed with the morons who cry censorship when their letter to the editor isn't published? Good grief, start your own damn paper! Or get a blog. Or go bore your friends. Or read up on what real censorship is. Jeez)

Excuse me, I just catharted.

Anywho, thoroughly enraged by this affront I fired back:

What on earth?
Did the EC just delete my earlier comment on Big Green vs. little green?
Goodness.

Comment by Climateer - February 22, 2008 at 1:06 pm

Well the first comment is back, sorry I blew up like that.
I may have suffered a mini-stroke.
Never mind.

Among the links in that first comment is this gem:

Who is actually attending the Bali climate conference
So, who do you think is the biggest non-governmental organisation (NGO) in Bali? Which NGO do you think has registered the most delegates to attend the climate conference? Is it Greenpeace? Is it the World Wide Fund for Nature? Could it be Friends of the Earth? Or maybe big business lobbyists the International Chamber of Commerce?

A couple of days ago I went through the official delegates list and did the complex mathematics (i.e. counting) to work this out. And to my surprise it’s a big fat nope to all of these guys.

It turns out the biggest NGO delegation in Bali is the lobbying group, the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA). With 336 representatives including lawyers, financiers, emissions traders, consultants, certifiers and emissions trading experts from companies like Shell, the IETA makes up 7.5% of the 4483 Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO) delegates registered to attend the UN climate talks....MORE