From CNBC, November 13:
Wholesale prices rose 0.3% in October, putting annual rate at 6.5%, the highest in nearly four years
The producer price index, a measure of wholesale prices rose 0.3% in October, slightly less than the 0.4% forecast.
On an annual basis, PPI surged 6.5%, the biggest increase since November 2022.
Markets continued to full price in an interest rate hike of at least a quarter percentage point when the Fed meets in December.Wholesale prices increased less than expected in October, but inflation pressures persisted and the Federal Reserve is likely still on target for an interest rate increase soon.
The producer price index, which measures the prices domestic producers get for their products before they reach the consumer, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for the month, against the Dow Jones consensus for a 0.4% increase, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
Stripping out food and energy, core PPI posted a 0.3% gain, meeting expectations.
On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated 6.5%, up 0.2 percentage point for the highest annual rate since November 2022.
The report comes just a few weeks ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting Dec. 8-9. Markets are fully pricing in a quarter percentage point increase in the central bank’s key overnight borrowing rate, with slight odds that the Federal Open Market Committee might opt for a half-point hike.
Stock market futures added to gains following the release while Treasury yields were mixed.
Earlier this week, the BLS reported that inflation at the cash register was hotter than expected.
The headline consumer price index saw a 0.4% increase in October while core was up 0.3%, both 0.1 percentage point higher than expected. Because of the government shutdown in October 2025, the BLS couldn’t collect some data and refrained from putting out a 12-month inflation figure for CPI.
However, the figures showed that the Fed remains a good distance from its 2% inflation goal.
“Today’s PPI data – which shows some signs of improving, albeit still too-high – is unlikely to change the Fed’s approach in December because the CPI data was already outside their comfort zone,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management....
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Here's the Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 13:
Producer Price Index News Release summary
PRODUCER PRICE INDEXES - OCTOBER 2026
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 1.4 percent in September and 0.4 percent in August. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 6.5 percent for the 12 months ended in October, the largest 12-month rise since moving up 7.4 percent in November 2022.
Leading the October advance in final demand prices, the index for final demand goods increased 0.5 percent. Prices for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent.
The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.5 percent in October, the same as in September. For the 12 months ended in October, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 4.9 percent.
Final Demand
Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods increased 0.5 percent in October following a 2.5-percent rise in September. Over 60 percent of the advance in October is attributable to prices for final demand goods less foods and energy, which moved up 0.5 percent. The index for final demand foods increased 1.3 percent. In contrast, prices for final demand energy edged down 0.1 percent. For the 12 months ended in October, the index for final demand goods increased 10.2 percent, the largest 12-month rise since advancing 10.5 percent in October 2022.
Product detail: Within the index for final demand goods in October, prices for basic organic chemicals advanced 3.9 percent. The indexes for fresh and dry vegetables; gas fuels; aeronautical, nautical, and navigational instruments; jet fuel; and processed young chickens also moved higher.
(See table 2.) Conversely, diesel fuel prices fell 7.9 percent. The indexes for pork and for passenger cars also declined.
Final demand services: The index for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent in October, the fifth consecutive advance. Three-fourths of the October rise can be traced to a 2.0-percent increase in prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services. The index for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing advanced 0.2 percent. In contrast, margins for final demand trade services decreased 0.2 percent.
Product detail: Over 80 percent of the October increase in the index for final demand services is attributable to prices for truck transportation of freight, which rose 3.9 percent. The indexes for fuels and lubricants retailing; health, beauty, and optical goods retailing; food and alcohol wholesaling; hospital outpatient care; and traveler accommodation services also moved higher. Conversely, margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling fell 4.2 percent. Prices for system software publishing and for airline passenger services also declined.
Intermediate Demand by Commodity Type
Within intermediate demand in October, the index for processed goods increased 0.4 percent, prices for unprocessed goods fell 3.1 percent, and the index for services rose 0.6 percent. (See tables B and C.)
Processed goods for intermediate demand: Prices for processed goods for intermediate demand advanced 0.4 percent in October, the third consecutive rise. Leading the October increase, the index for processed materials less foods and energy moved up 0.9 percent. Prices for processed foods and feeds advanced 1.0 percent. In contrast, the index for processed energy goods declined 1.6 percent.
For the 12 months ended in October, prices for processed goods for intermediate demand increased 14.6 percent, the largest 12-month rise since jumping 17.2 percent in July 2022.
Product detail: More than 40 percent of the October advance in the index for processed goods for intermediate demand can be traced to prices for basic organic chemicals, which moved up 3.9 percent. The indexes for jet fuel, electronic components and accessories, natural gas liquids, fabricated structural metal products, and prepared animal feeds also increased. Conversely, prices for diesel fuel fell 7.9 percent. The indexes for pork and for lumber also decreased.
Unprocessed goods for intermediate demand: Prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand fell 3.1 percent in October, the largest decline since moving down 6.6 percent in June.
Leading the broad-based decrease in October, the index for unprocessed energy materials dropped 7.7 percent. Prices for unprocessed nonfood materials less energy and for unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs also fell, 0.9 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. For the 12 months ended in October, the index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand rose 16.9 percent.
Product detail: A major factor in the October decline in the index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand was a 10.3-percent decrease in prices for crude petroleum. The indexes for corn, slaughter hogs, wheat, aluminum base scrap, and hay and hayseeds also moved down. In contrast, prices for raw milk advanced 8.2 percent. The indexes for natural gas and for carbon steel scrap also increased....
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Regardless of whether or not the Fed raises at their next meeting the PPI is rolling over.
