Tuesday, November 10, 2026

Inflation: UP 0.4% Month-over-Month (no Year-over-Year due to 2025 government shutdown)

I think the Bloomberg survey had a consensus 0.3%, so hotter than expected but cooler than the last report. 

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 10:

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - OCTOBER 2026

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in October after rising 0.6 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. 

The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in October, accounting for over thirty percent of the monthly all items increase. 
The food index increased 0.5 percent in October, as the food at home index rose 0.4 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.5 percent. The index for energy increased 0.7 percent over the month following a 5.2-percent increase in September. 

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, as it did in September and August. Indexes that increased over the month include recreation, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, and education. Conversely, the index for used cars and trucks and the index for communication were among the small number of major indexes that decreased in October.

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                        October 2026 12-Month Percent Changes
            
BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations. For most CPI series, BLS could not publish October 2025 indexes. As a result, BLS cannot publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for indexes where October 2025 data are unavailable. Information about handling missing data is available online at www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/approximating-missing-data.htm 
Food

The index for food rose 0.5 percent in October after being unchanged in September. The food at home index increased 0.4 percent over the month. Four of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased in October, while one index decreased. The index for other food at home increased 0.7 percent in October, as the index for snacks rose 1.0 percent. 
The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index increased 0.5 percent over the month, as the beef index rose 0.9 percent. The index for fruits and vegetables and the index for dairy and related products each increased 0.6 percent in October. 

In contrast, the nonalcoholic beverages index decreased 0.3 percent in October, after rising 0.9 percent in September. The index for cereals and bakery products was unchanged over the month.

The food away from home index rose 0.5 percent in October. The index for full service meals rose 0.7 percent, and the index for limited service meals increased 0.4 percent over the month.

Energy

The index for energy increased 0.7 percent in October after rising 5.2 percent in September. The gasoline index increased 1.0 percent over the month, after advancing 9.1 percent the previous month. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices decreased 0.7 percent in October.) The index for electricity rose 0.9 percent over the month. In contrast, the natural gas index decreased 0.8 percent in October.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, as it did in September and August. The shelter index increased 0.3 percent over the month after rising 0.4 percent in September. The index for owners' equivalent rent 
rose 0.3 percent in October, and the index for rent increased 0.2 percent. The lodging away from home index rose 0.6 percent in October after rising 2.0 percent the previous month.... 

....MUCH MORE (tables, narrative)