Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Chokepoints: U.S. Makes Move On Fram Strait Between Greenland and Svalbard

Just kidding, the move is actually for all of Greenland, including real estate fronting on the strait and on the northern end of the GIUK gap.*

From the New York Times, May 18:

Greenlandic officials worry about the direction of the negotiations aimed at defusing President Trump’s threats to seize their island. But they have little leverage. 

With the conflict in Iran still smoldering, President Trump’s obsession with Greenland seems like a forgotten sideshow.

But for the past four months, negotiators from the United States, Greenland and Denmark, which controls Greenland’s foreign affairs, have been holding confidential talks in Washington about Greenland’s future.

The talks were meant to give Mr. Trump an offramp to his threats of a military takeover of Greenland and to scale back a crisis that risked breaking apart the NATO alliance. But Greenlandic leaders are worried about what is being proposed, which is a much larger U.S. role on the Arctic island. And they fear that if the conflict with Iran winds down, the president will swing his aggression back on them.

Some Greenlandic politicians say they have even circled a date on their calendars to be wary: June 14, Mr. Trump’s birthday.

An investigation by The New York Times, based on interviews with officials in Washington, Copenhagen and Greenland, has discovered:

  • The United States is trying to modify a longstanding military arrangement to ensure American troops can stay in Greenland indefinitely, even if Greenland becomes independent. The notion is basically a forever clause, and Greenlanders do not like it.

  • The United States has pushed the talks beyond military matters and wants effective veto power over any major investment deals in Greenland to box out competitors like Russia and China. Greenlanders and Danes strongly object to this.

  • The United States is discussing cooperation with Greenland on natural resources. The island is loaded with oil, uranium, rare earths and other critical minerals, though much of it is buried deep beneath Greenland’s ice.

  • The Pentagon is rapidly moving ahead on plans for a military expansion and recently sent a Marine Corps officer to Narsarsuaq, a town in southern Greenland, to inspect the World War II-era airport, the harbor and places where American troops could be housed.

The American demands are so steep, Greenlandic officials fear, that they amount to a major imposition on their sovereignty. Despite all of the talk from Danish and American officials that Greenland’s future is up to the island’s 57,000 people, Greenlandic officials said the American demands would tie their hands for generations.

If the Americans get everything they want, said Justus Hansen, a member of Greenland’s Parliament, there will never be any “real independence.”

“We might as well raise our own flag halfway,” he said.

State Department and Danish officials have said little about the negotiations, which are being spearheaded by one of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s top advisers, Michael Needham.

Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, the head of the Pentagon’s Northern Command, described in a recent interview with The Times the broader American vision to defend the Arctic, an arena of increased geopolitical competition as climate change melts polar ice and opens up what had been one of world’s most inaccessible regions.

General Guillot said Greenland would be part of a chain of interlinking radar stations and military bases, which also includes sites in Alaska and Canada. He said the American military needs a deepwater port and a base for Special Operations soldiers who would rotate through Greenland for training and exercises.

General Guillot said this could be done through the defense pact that the United States signed with Denmark in 1951, when Greenland was still a Danish colony. That pact has been the jumping off point for the current negotiations, and Greenlandic and Danish officials originally tried to argue that the agreement gave the United States such a free hand for forces on Greenland that there was no need to take over the island.

Negotiators have met about five times in Washington since January, when Mr. Trump threatened to seize Greenland, saying it was essential to American national security. Though he eventually backed down and has since been absorbed by the conflict in Iran, the White House has indicated he is still deeply interested in Greenland.

So the Greenlandic, Danish and American negotiators involved in the talks hope they can reach a deal that the mercurial president will accept, officials familiar with the discussions say. The accounts made clear that there was still some distance to go. The officials who spoke to The Times asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the continuing negotiations.

Dylan Johnson, the assistant secretary of state for global public affairs, said in a statement that the national security and economic concerns laid out by the president “are undisputed by all parties and we continue to negotiate to address those concerns on a permanent basis.”....

....MUCH MORE 
 
If the talks have been going-on for four months and the Times is just getting to the story I'm thinking these efforts have been remarkably leak-free. 
*Here's where the geostrategic action is at present. Last seen in May 11's "United Arab Emirates Joins Svalbard Treaty":

....Russia also has serious interest in the archipelago including the old coal mine, the undersea cables and access and egress into the Atlantic:

https://web.archive.org/web/20230629044229im_/https://thebarentsobserver.com/sites/default/files/resize/skjermbilde_2020-12-01_kl._11.05.38-1000x602.png 

Russian Bastion Defence in relation to Norway and the Bear and GIUK Gaps. 
Source: Mikkola / RAND Europe report 

The Bear Gap is Svalbard - Bear Island - Norway while the GIUK Gap is Greenland - Iceland - Britain.