As noted introducing June 15's "Electricity: "Report Says 130 New Gas-Fired Power Projects Proposed in Texas" (GEV)":
If all these proposals go forward GE Vernova would probably have to buy Siemens' gas turbine business just to keep the backlog to fifteen years or less.
From S&P Global, May 27
HIGHLIGHTS
- Extremely high demand for turbines
- Costs up 2.5 times in some markets
With demand for natural gas-fired turbines in the US rapidly accelerating amid power demand growth forecasts driven by AI, manufacturing, and electrification, wait times for turbines are anywhere between one and seven years depending on the model, and costs have increased considerably, experts told Platts.
As of February, original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs, "are quoting upwards of five to seven years if you are trying to order [a gas-fired turbine] right now," Bobby Noble, senior program manager for Gas Turbine Research and Development at EPRI, formerly known as the Energy Power Research Institute, said.
It does vary and some may be shorter than that, "but the fact is there's a huge buildout in growth occurring," he said.
"Three to four years sounds about right if you are not already in the queue for a turbine," Paul Sotkiewicz, president and founder of consultant E-Cubed Policy Associates, said. Sotkiewicz also served as chief economist of PJM Interconnection's market services division.
"We are seeing this across all the components needed to build a gas-fired power plant," Sotkiewicz said.
Some US regions are increasing gas-fired capacity more than others and right now data center growth is a big factor.
"Gas-fired turbines are one of the prime abilities to increase your capacity, especially on the order of what some of these data centers are looking at," Noble said.
If a data center campus needs a gigawatt-plus of power to meet demand, a two-on-one combined cycle gas turbine facility is very much capable of supplying that sort of need, he said.
"PJM, for sure, is one of those markets," Noble said.
Highlighting interest in PJM, NRG Energy said May 12 the company plans to acquire 13 GW of gas-fired generation capacity, and 6 GW of virtual power plant capacity owned by LS Power Development that have an overall enterprise value of $12 billion.
Acquiring the LS Power portfolio will increase NRG's presence in the US Northeast by 11 GW, with about three-quarters of that capacity in PJM and the remainder is in the ISO New England and New York Independent System Operator markets.
The major OEMs are also reporting solid orders for new gas-fired turbines, up significantly from just a few years ago.
"There is no question that gas turbine demand has clearly increased, especially when you consider that the market for large gas turbines for power generation applications in the United States in 2022 was limited to one -- the lowest total ever reported," Rich Voorberg, president of Siemens Energy, North America, said in an email.
Strong gas-fired turbine demand
"With the gas turbine sales and reservations that we've transacted over the past six months alone, we will add dozens of gas turbines to our operating fleet in North America," Voorberg said.Orders in the respective business area within Siemens Energy more than doubled worldwide compared to the same quarter in fiscal year 2024, he said.
In Q2, Siemens Gas Services recorded the highest orders in a quarter to date, the company said during its earning call.
In the US, the company has planned gas turbines with a total capacity of 8 GW for data centers in the first half of the year, which includes 2 GW as booked orders and 6 GW as firm reservations....
....MUCH MORE
Here's more on PJM, February 12:
"Nation's Largest Grid To Fast-Track NatGas Power Plants To Fuel Next AI Trade" (GEV)
