Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Capital Markets: "Dollar Comes Back Softer ahead of FOMC Outcome"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

(Commentary resumes with the weekly outlook on June 21)

Overview: Yesterday's dollar buying seen in the North American afternoon appears to have exhausted the position-squaring adjustment amid speculation the US might enter more directly the hostilities with Iran and ahead of the outcome of the FOMC meeting. Follow-through buying to has been limited to a couple of G10 currencies, including the Swedish krona following the Riksbank's quarter-point cut and kept the door open to another reduction. The dollar's gains were also extended against the Swiss franc, whose central bank will likely bring its deposit rate to zero tomorrow. Emerging market currencies are more mixed. Asia Pacific currencies, but the Chinese yuan, were mostly lower while central European currencies are mostly firmer.

The large bourse in the Asia Pacific regions were mixed. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan advanced, as did mainland Chinese markets. However, the Hang Seng, and mainland companies that trade there, alongside Australia and India were softer. Europe's Stoxx 600 is straddling unchanged, while US index futures are modestly higher. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly slightly lower in Europe; the UK Gilts and Sweden's yield are almost three basis points lower. The 10-year US Treasury yield is slightly softer, near 4.38%. Gold remains uninspired and is trading softer but inside yesterday's range, unable to re-establish a foothold above $3400. August WTI remains elevated. It is at the lower end of today's roughly $72-$74 range....

....MUCH MORE