"BCA Research: 75% Chance of Recession In The Next Three Months

From India's Economic Times, March 8:

Alarming! This veteran strategist from BCA Research says there is a 75% chance of a recession within the next three months

Synopsis

Peter Berezin of BCA Research warns of a 75% chance of a US recession in the next three months due to trade wars and policy uncertainties. He cites falling consumer demand, tariff-related confusion, and inflation pressures as key concerns. Berezin's S&P 500 target is 4,450, contrasting sharply with the current level and general optimism for 2025. 

As the US economy gets warning signals of an economic slowdown, veteran strategist Peter Berezin of BCA Research is ringing the alarm bell as he claimed that there is a 75% probability of a recession within the next three months, as per a report.

Underestimating the economic impact In his opinion, traditional estimates understate the economic impact of current trade wars and the recent reductions imposed by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), according to Yahoo Finance. He said "Growth will slow more than expected," as quoted in the report.

The 'lone bear' on Wall Street

While most on Wall Street remain optimistic about a robust economy in 2025, Berezin is the "lone bear" who foresees a much darker future, as per the report. His year-end S&P 500 target is 4,450, a steep drop from the current level of 5,738, reported Yahoo Finance. While the index opened this year at 5,903.

Currently, the S&P 500 Index has dropped back to pre-election levels, as per the report.

Three key concerns Berezin summarizes his concerns in three points:

1. Fall in demand – Increased tariffs are constricting workers' real incomes, which dampens consumer demand. 

2. Tariff Policy Uncertainty – The way the Trump administration is dealing with tariffs policy is leading to confusion and uncertainty for businesses and the public.....

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One concern he doesn't mention but which for us is top-of-mind is that for the last four years the economy has been goosed by trillions of dollars in deficit spending and that his excess liquidity, amounting to 7% of GDP last fiscal year is being tamped down and with it the Potemkin Bidenomics.

As the former President was fond of saying: "No joke."