Via ZeroHedge, August 5:
....Meanwhile, UBS analyst Sunny Lin wrote in a note to clients Monday that Nvidia's manufacturing partner, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, might run into potential production issues:
"We believe Nvidia could be prioritizing CoWoS-L's tight capacity to B200, which has higher value for the GB200 superchip...this may enable Nvidia [to have] better flexibility and be less constrained by TSMC's CoWoS capacity."
Here's what Wall Street analysts are saying (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Bloomberg Intelligence
- A delay "would potentially limit upside beats to 2H sales estimates," although "it's too early to say if this would lead to a miss"
Citi (buy, PT $150)
- Citi is lowering its FY25 estimates given the reported delay, and it is removing a 30-day upside catalyst watch on the stock
- "We view Jul/Oct-Q data center sales as largely intact and estimate ~15% impact to Jan-Q data center sales on lower Blackwell offset partially by higher H200 demand with Apr-Q sales to move higher on the Blackwell push out"
D.A. Davidson (neutral, PT $90)
- Delays "are likely to be short-lived and have limited impact, but they do add a twist to the Nvidia story"
- "The delay in Blackwell shipments may create a shorter term blip which we will have to carefully assess in order to not mistake it for the inevitable cycle turn"
Bernstein (outperform, PT $130)
- The report "is potentially plausible," but "while potential delays are never great, we aren't panicking just yet," as "it remains clear that demand levels continue to rise"
- "Amid the recent turn in sentiment around AI this latest news likely won't make things better"....
....MORE
In pre-market action the stock is down $14.87 (-13.86%) at $92.40. From the all-time high, $140.76 that is a collapse of 34.35%.
If interested see also:
"Jobs and Manufacturing Data Bring Signs of Panic. Stocks Might Not Be Done Falling."
Estragon: I can’t go on like this.
Vladimir: That’s what you think.—Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot
*****
This is the least organic, most telegraphed ruction that we've seen in a
long time. Even some damn blogger could spout intro's like this from
July 9:
"JPMorgan’s Kelly Says Only a Bear-Market ‘Shock’ Can Upend Tech"July 31
Agreed.
The problem arises when a bear market arrives, as it surely will, possibly as soon as mid August, the quality names could get seriously battered, like 50%+ battered....
Apple Trained Its Large Language Model On Broadcom-Designed TPUs In Google's Cloud, Meh (AVGO, GOOG, AAPL)
The May gap-up on the chart extends from the $94.95 close on May 22 to the $102.03 open on May 23.
The earlier February gap-up is from the $67.47 close on February 21 to the $75.03 open on February 22.
On February 6 we mentioned a smaller gap-up from $66.16 on Friday the 2nd to $68.22 on Monday the 5th, repeated in June 18's "Nvidia's Financial Dominance (NVDA)":
For the last year we have been referring to the AI phenomena as a bubble, perhaps not so much in financial terms but rather in terms of the psychology, the speculative frenzy. It's true in Nvidia's case, the stock could be cut in half and still be discounting the future with a 2-3% discount factor i.e. 33 to 50 times free cash flow.
However! Despite this we have been pitching a "Ride the Bubble" approach to the stock for over a year (we have an almost full decade with this one but it was in the last thirteen months that we thought it bubblelicious)....*****February 6, 2024
Nvidia Collapses (gives back half yesterday's gains) plus Isaac Newton and Daniel Defoe do a drive by (NVDA)The stock is down $11.87, so a little less than half yesterday's up-move. $681.45 last after trading as low as $663.00 (down $30.31 and almost the entire Monday $31.72 up-move.) Unfortunately there is a gap on the chart at $660 so it didn't completely fill. Nervous-making....By-the-bye, that $660 ($66, new style) is the "cut in half" number....
