We try to be careful with this type of writing. Speculating about a speculative investment out in public is an exercise fraught with downsides, among which is the Keynesian Beauty Contest aspect of information on an asset price. You not only have to be right about the underlying story but also on the market's reaction to that story should it come to pass.
With that caveat, and with an awareness that NVDA has from time to time shown an almost perverse reversal of the price trend going into earnings.... One of the most dramatic was in February 2024 when a short-but-sharp downtrend reversed in dramatic fashion:
That gap by the way is the one major gap that has not been filled,* the other big one from the May earnings report was filled in the early August ructions. Over the years - and we are talking every earnings report back to 2015, we've also seen the opposite occur, an up-move into Nvidia earnings reversed when the report didn't hit the whisper numbers.
So, with that cautionary tale ringing in our ears, here's MarrketWatch, August 21, 2024:
Several analysts see the company hitting the $30 billion revenue mark when it reports earnings next week. The company crossed the $20 billion threshold two quarters ago.
Nvidia Corp. keeps moving the bar higher. This time around, that could mean a new revenue milestone.
Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri sees the possibility of Nvidia NVDA topping $30 billion in revenue when the semiconductor company posts earnings next Wednesday afternoon. His projection is above the consensus view, which calls for $28.7 billion.
A revenue total above the $30 billion mark would highlight just how rapidly Nvidia has been able to grow — and at scale. The company first exceeded $10 billion in quarterly revenue a year ago, and it topped $20 billion in quarterly revenue during the January quarter.
Analysts see the potential for a $40 billion revenue quarter a year or so from now. The FactSet consensus models $39.6 billion in revenue for next year’s July quarter, and $42.3 billion in revenue for next year’s October quarter.
Nvidia has beaten consensus revenue expectations each quarter going back at least five years. But even if Nvidia weren’t to hit Pajjuri’s $30 billion-plus revenue mark this quarter, merely meeting the consensus view would be an impressive show of growth as it would mean revenue more than doubled from a year before. Nvidia’s growth is slowing as the company starts to lap periods that also benefitted from explosive demand for artificial-intelligence hardware, but to be able to double revenue at current levels is a rare feat....
....MUCH MORE
*To fill that gap will take something that JPM's David Kelly called out in July:
"JPMorgan’s Kelly Says Only a Bear-Market ‘Shock’ Can Upend Tech"
$128.04 up $0.79 (0.62%) last.
