From DTN Progressive Farmer, June 10:
USDA Reports Preview
June WASDE Revisits Wheat Estimates, South American Progress
Wednesday's June 12 reports from USDA, which will be released at 11 a.m. CDT, will update new-crop wheat production estimates in the U.S. and around the world at a time when winter wheat harvest is getting underway. USDA will also take another look at South American crop estimates after last month's flooding in southern Brazil.
CORN
The latest report from USDA showed 91% of the corn crop planted as of June 2, 2 percentage points above the five-year average. As good as that sounds, the planting pace is also tied for the second slowest in 10 years with 2022, a year that had 6.4 million acres of prevented plantings. The better answer to the riddle of how many corn acres were planted in 2024 won't come until USDA's June 28 Acreage report. My best guess is that Wednesday's WASDE report may show a slightly lower yield as an acknowledgement of this year's wet spring conditions.
Similarly, Dow Jones' pre-report survey expects USDA will estimate 14.845 billion bushels (bb) of corn production for 2024, based on a slightly lower yield of 180.8 bushels per acre (bpa), ending with modest reductions in U.S. corn ending stocks. For 2023-24, ending stocks are expected to be lowered from 2.022 bb to 1.984 bb. For the new season, ending corn stocks are expected to be reduced from 2.102 bb to 2.048 bb. Old-crop demand for corn is doing well, and if USDA makes any changes, the amounts are apt to be small.
USDA's estimate of world ending corn stocks in 2023-24 is expected to be trimmed from 313.1 million metric tons (mmt) to 311.5 mmt, or 12.26 bb, largely due to small reductions in the corn production estimates for Brazil and Argentina. Dow Jones is looking for the estimate on Brazil's corn production to go from 122.0 mmt to 121.0 mmt, or 4.76 bb. Brazil's crop agency, Conab, is estimating 111.6 mmt, or 4.39 bb, of production. USDA's estimate for Argentina is expected to move from 53.0 mmt to 51.2 mmt, or 2.02 bb, well above the 46.5 mmt estimate from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. So far, the theme of USDA being on the high end of South American estimates continues. Conab will have its next update on Thursday, June 13....
....MUCH MORE
And more to come.
