As we've found over the years, among the large banks Rabo's ag research seems to be the most accurate.
From Rabobank:
Agri Commodity Markets Research February 2024: Consumers Fail to Spring Forward
February marked another month of declines across most agri commodities, with the S&P GSCI Agriculture Index falling 1% MOM. Bearish sentiment is particularly prominent across the G&O space, where Non-Commercials are currently holding a record net short position, having surpassed the previous record held in May 2019. It didn’t take funds long to cover their shorts back then – just six weeks in fact – as delayed US plantings stoked fear back into the market. At present, Non-Commercials seem happy to sit at a record net short. However, any potential weather issue could induce some short-covering. In particular, there is a high probability of a return to La Niña in 2H 2024, which typically spells problems for G&O production across the Americas. For softs, markets were mixed. Cocoa continues its seemingly never-ending ascent, with the London contract up 48% MOM, as weak arrivals data in West Africa suggests there are serious issues with this season’s crop. Meanwhile, commodities such as ICE White Sugar and ICE Robusta remain particularly sensitive to the intensifying Red Sea situation....
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Also: "https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/agri-commodity-markets/commodity_snapshot_weekly.html"
