Sunday, March 10, 2024

Economic Disaster Approaching In Egypt

It's not all the doing of the Houthi terror* blockade of the approaches to the Suez canal but the disappearance of the transit fees putting an up to $10 billion hole in the nation's finances.**

From the New York Times, March 5:

Egyptians Are Buying and Selling Gold Just to Stay Afloat

Clamor for the precious metal is growing as the buying power of the country’s currency plunges in value against the dollar, and inflation eats away at savings.

Inside the wood-paneled shop in Cairo’s famed Khan el-Khalili market, the price of gold was slumping fast, and Rania Hussein was feeling the future slip through her fingers.

She and her mother watched the gold merchant weigh the necklace and three bangles they had brought in — jewelry Ms. Hussein had bought for her mother as a present five years ago but which they now needed to sell. Her brother was getting married, an expensive undertaking even in normal times, but the economic crisis and soaring inflation that have gripped Egypt for more than two years left the family no choice.

Years of reckless spending and economic mismanagement had come to a head in 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine helped plunge Egypt into a financial crisis. The war in Gaza has only deepened the pain.

The crisis has jacked up the price of eggs at the grocery store as well as the new furniture her brother is required, by tradition, to buy for the marital home, Ms. Hussein said. It also has shut her clothing design business and wiped out three-quarters of the value of her brother’s salary as an accountant.

And, in an odd side effect, it upended Khan el-Khalili’s normally placid gold jewelry and bullion stores, with their old-fashioned curly lettered signage and the Quranic recitations drifting ceaselessly from dusty speakers. In the past two years, speculators buying gold descended on the market as a crashing Egyptian currency drove up demand for gold as a safe haven from the turmoil.

While the price of the metal has generally risen despite the occasional reverse, its value has ebbed and flowed along with demand, depending on the vagaries of daily economic news, a volatility that has baffled both consumers and merchants.

On the day Ms. Hussein visited the market, the price of gold was dropping fast on news that Egypt might have found a lifeline to save it from what had, until then, looked like looming financial ruin. The country late last month struck a $35 billion deal for the United Arab Emirates to develop a new city and tourism destination on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast.

Within hours of the deal’s announcement, Egypt’s pound strengthened, the dollar’s black-market value fell and gold prices dropped with it

If the Emirati funds materialize as promised, analysts say, the cash, along with a new bailout agreement with the International Monetary Fund expected within weeks, will help Egypt stabilize its economy. It will help the country avoid a debt default, pay for a backlog of needed imports and undercut the black market in dollars created by a shortage of foreign currency.

But for Egyptians, the damage has been done....

*They aren't "militants" or "rebels" or whatever the AP wants to present them as. From the U.S. Department of Justice:
The FBI defines terrorism, domestic or international, as the unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a Government or civilian population in furtherance of political or social objectives....

**After U.S., Others, Write Strongly Worded Letter, Houthis Launch Explosive Sea-Drone
Egypt gets something like one third of government revenue from Suez canal tolls. At what point will they be forced to attack the Iran-backed Houthi and get a Sunni-Shia war going?

Related at Reuters, February 8:
 
Previously:

 "Egypt Grapples With Impact of Red Sea Hits on Suez Canal Revenue"
This is one of the two problems that could lead Egypt into what the war planners call kinetic military action, the other being if Israel herds the Gazans toward the border with Egypt....