Tuesday, March 12, 2024

CPI Inflation Print: Analysts React

 Via ZeroHedge, March 12:

....With that in mind, here is a snapshot of the kneejerk reactions by a selection of Wall Street analysts, economists and strategists.

 Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings:

“That is not the direction the Fed wants to see.”

Derek Tang, economist with LH Meyer/Monetary Policy Analytics:

“CPI came in a touch higher than expected but not so high to stop them from cutting in June as we expect. Powell and others have warned inflation will come down in a bumpy way. There’s still a few more prints before they meet in June, and what matters if the whole path down. As Powell said, they’re ‘not far’ from gaining the confidence they need to start cutting, and this report alone doesn’t detract from that.”

Augusta Saraiva, Bloomberg:

"After a brisk January reading, the report adds to evidence that inflation is proving stubborn, which is keeping central bankers wary of easing policy too soon."

Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab’s chief fixed-income strategist:

“This will probably be seen as a reason to keep policy on hold a while longer. Through the volatility, the downtrend in inflation seems to be leveling off and the Fed would like to see it continue to move lower before easing rates.”

Bloomberg Intelligence Rates Strategist Ira Jersey (who confirms what we said yesterday: a hot print was mostly priced in).

“The rates market looks to have been set up for an even worse inflation print. “But we don’t think this print warrants a sustained rally from these levels.”

to David Russell, Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation:

“Inflation came in a little hot but the bulls aren’t ready to throw in the towel yet. Investors remain optimistic that shelter costs will come down. We still have three more reports before that key Fed meeting in June to confirm or reverse that hope. Wall Street is keeping the faith for now but that could change if future prints don’t improve. Stocks are still climbing the wall of worry.”

Alan Detmeister, UBS Research:

"Overall, this report, while strong, was a good sign the elevated January pace is unlikely to persist into the spring, but, as we have noted before, today's report is unlikely to have any effect on the upcoming FOMC meeting."

Torsten Slok, Apollo:

“Fresh upward momentum is building in inflation. Inflation has started to move sideways and remains well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target. This means the Fed will keep rates higher for longer.”

....MUCH MORE