Wednesday, October 4, 2023

"Bond yields could race through 5% in next couple of weeks, market forecaster Jim Bianco warns"

What with Jamie Dimon warning* the world isn't ready for a 7% rate on the 10-year note, Rick Santelli broaching a 13% rate yesterday (sometime between now and 2030) and now this more immediate conjecture it seems the Overton Window of possible futures is widening and opening.

And as I said on the occasion of the April CPI release, May 10:

I don't think we've seen the high inflation print for this decade, much less this century.  

Buy farmland and learn a marketable skill.

The high print so far this decade was the 9.1% registered for the 12-months ended June 30, 2022.

From CNBC, October 3:

Wall Street forecaster Jim Bianco expects Treasury yields to go a lot higher — and possibly overshoot through 5% in the next couple of weeks.

"I don't think we're near the end of this move in the bond market," the Bianco Research president told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Tuesday.

If the Federal Reserve hints about ending interest rate hikes while investors still sense inflation, Bianco warns they won't buy bonds.

"That's what I think has been killing the bond market," he said. "The more the Fed talks about being done, waiting [and] assessing all the rate hikes they've done — the more that they're making it worse."....

On September 27 we also saw Kimble Charting Solutions with "10-Year Treasury Yield Breakout Targeting 6.3 Percent?"

Our re-jiggering of Santayana may end up becoming a mantra. From the introduction to September 6's "TS Lombard: Resurging Inflation":

....Throw in a dozen other examples and that's my rationale for bastardizing Santayana with his "Only the dead have seen the end of war" observation: Only the dead have seen the end of inflation.

Speaking of Lombard, Dario Perkins had an interesting piece in November 2022:

TS Lombard: "Inflation was always the Endgame"